Time to DFA Ubaldo

[maybenxtyr]

Back to the Topic.

I wonder if Gallardo returns from the DL and takes over Ubaldo's spot in the rotation???????

I would say he couldn't be any worse, but that may not be true. I dont think Gallardo is close though. He may be a couple of weeks away.

[LookitsPuck]

I have made no secret of my dislike of Dylan Bundy.

But the Orioles were absolutely stupid to give him that contract. Again JMO

EDIT: Back to the question at hand. Get rid of Brian Matusz and relegate Ubaldo to the pen. I guess we have to bring someone up TJ? Bundy and Ubaldo can NOT be trusted and we need a Lefty, preferably 2

Were the O's stupid re: that contract? Was fairly typical back then before it was banned, yeah?

[LookitsPuck]

Ugh. Baseball Reference's pitching WAR is the worst. Fangraphs has him at the much more reasonable 3.8 WAR over the last three seasons.

The fact that FanGraphs has him at 3.8 WAR is hot garbage in and of itself. 1.7 WAR sounds exactly about right considering how terrible that ERA is. He's had (essentially) one good half season with the O's. The rest including this season has been rubbish.

[LookitsPuck]

FA pitchers signed in the same offseason. Of course most of these guys were off the market by the time February rolled around and the O's had yet to take the jump. If only we could have predicted the future on someone like Feldman or Kazmir.

Tanaka: 7 years $155M (let's leave him aside for now)

Matt Garza: 4 / 52M (currently hurt, good 2014 but real bad 2015)

Nolasco: 4 / 49M - Disaster (ERA worse than Ubaldo since 2014)

Ubaldo: 4 / 48M

Feldman: 3 / 30M - 3.81 ERA since 2014, seems consistent

Hughes: 3 / 24M - 4.09 ERA since 2014 but trending wrong direction

Tim Hudson: 2 / 23M - He gone

Kazmir: 2 / 22M - Great '14 and '15.......sucking so far in '16 in LA

Colon: 2 / 20M - he seems to do well in New York

Arroyo: 2 / 19M - He gone.

Kuroda: 1 / 16M

AJ Burnett: 1 / 16M

E. Santana: 1 / 14M

Pelfrey: 2 / 11M

Dan Haren: 1 / 10M

Josh Johnson: 1 / 8M

Hammel: 1 / 6M

Gavin Floyd: 1 / 4M

The thing is...and this is with Ubaldo and Gallardo, you don't wait until the last possible second for 3rd tier pitchers AND give up 1st rounders when a.) they're inconsistent and coming off only a good half season with the Indians (Ubaldo) or b.) their peripherals/velocity has been dropping and the medical reports backed it up.

Now we're sitting here out 2 1st round picks and stuck with both of those guys. And most of us here at OH hated both of those signings for the above reasons (and more).

Meanwhile the O's jettisoned Miguel Gonzalez because he couldn't hit 90mph, but he's averaging near 91mph and has hit 93mph this year (peak).

I just don't get this club sometimes. We give away comp picks and 1st rounders like candy and try to go for fool's gold in Ubaldo/Gallardo type pitchers when we could really just go for a steady pitcher who may/may not be amazing, but at least they won't be Forrest Gump chocolate.

[El Gordo]

The thing is...and this is with Ubaldo and Gallardo, you don't wait until the last possible second for 3rd tier pitchers AND give up 1st rounders when a.) they're inconsistent and coming off only a good half season with the Indians (Ubaldo) or b.) their peripherals/velocity has been dropping and the medical reports backed it up.

Now we're sitting here out 2 1st round picks and stuck with both of those guys. And most of us here at OH hated both of those signings for the above reasons (and more).

Meanwhile the O's jettisoned Miguel Gonzalez because he couldn't hit 90mph, but he's averaging near 91mph and has hit 93mph this year (peak).

I just don't get this club sometimes. We give away comp picks and 1st rounders like candy and try to go for fool's gold in Ubaldo/Gallardo type pitchers when we could really just go for a steady pitcher who may/may not be amazing, but at least they won't be Forrest Gump chocolate.

You do when ownership doesn't allow you to spend on Good FA SP.

[LookitsPuck]

You do when ownership doesn't allow you to spend on Good FA SP.

So signing incredibly risky (Ubaldo) and/or hurt (Gallardo) pitchers is the right answer? I'm sorry, but we can't just keep giving Duquette the benefit of the doubt here. He essentially punted last offseason because of the Toronto debacle. And now he's handled this offseason nearly as bad (Fowler, Kim, Gallardo).

This club wins in spite of Duquette, not because of him. We're lucky that Showalter is here. And while Duquette does make a lot of little moves that end up being effective, his larger scale moves have left much to be desired.

[Redskins Rick]

I would say he couldn't be any worse, but that may not be true. I dont think Gallardo is close though. He may be a couple of weeks away.

True, but based on Roch's article on Buck's comments.

I don't see them doing anything too quickly either. Not a lot of other options right now, in spite of what everybody says about wanting Ubaldo DFA.

Reminds me a bit like Jake, people grew tired of him, and wanted him gone, and now look.

[Redskins Rick]

So signing incredibly risky (Ubaldo) and/or hurt (Gallardo) pitchers is the right answer? I'm sorry, but we can't just keep giving Duquette the benefit of the doubt here. He essentially punted last offseason because of the Toronto debacle. And now he's handled this offseason nearly as bad (Fowler, Kim, Gallardo).

This club wins in spite of Duquette, not because of him. We're lucky that Showalter is here. And while Duquette does make a lot of little moves that end up being effective, his larger scale moves have left much to be desired.

You can't give Buck all the credit, granted, Buck is a great manager and really knows what he is doing.

DD didn't do anything wrong with Folwer, Folwer is a jerk and played the Orioles, it is what it is.

I can't begin to explain Kim, but I believe not playing in ST, is all on Buck.

[MdSooner]

screams, "GROW THE ARMS".

I agree with this. But I have no faith in our current organization to fulfill this.

My grand parents were farmers/ranchers in Oklahoma. Every summer in the 60's and 70's they gave me a little patch of land to grow anything I wanted.

I could not grow anything (watermelons, cantaloupes, tomatoes, among other things) But I could grow squash and zucchini. I really think those two things are like weeds and any one can grow them.

The point of the story is that I do not trust this team to grow anything.

[Phantom]

The fact that FanGraphs has him at 3.8 WAR is hot garbage in and of itself. 1.7 WAR sounds exactly about right considering how terrible that ERA is. He's had (essentially) one good half season with the O's. The rest including this season has been rubbish.

If you're judging player value based on something as, ahem, quixotic as ERA, advanced stats may not be right for you.

They've got him at .5 WAR so far this year. So 3 more quarters of this performance makes him a 2 WAR player according to FanGraphs. Hmmmmm.

It's almost like starting pitchers with 4.33 Fips have some value in the league!

[Phantom]

I agree with this. But I have no faith in our current organization to fulfill this.

We grew some. We just sold them for some magic beans...err, low impact rentals.

[MdSooner]

You can't give Buck all the credit, granted, Buck is a great manager and really knows what he is doing.

DD didn't do anything wrong with Folwer, Folwer is a jerk and played the Orioles, it is what it is.

I can't begin to explain Kim, but I believe not playing in ST, is all on Buck.

Didn't Kim play in spring training and went 0-24?

[sportsfan8703]

True, but based on Roch's article on Buck's comments.

I don't see them doing anything too quickly either. Not a lot of other options right now, in spite of what everybody says about wanting Ubaldo DFA.

Reminds me a bit like Jake, people grew tired of him, and wanted him gone, and now look.

I guess you could say the Jake thing about every pitcher we want to DFA now. We have to keep Ubaldo, it's not like we have anyone else to take his place. Wright and Wilson are already in the rotation. Macfarland just got hurt. Bundy isn't ready.

The one move you could sell me on is to flip flop him with Worley for a start or two. I mean it will never happen, but we could start throwing Brach out there and building him up. But we'd tax the pen until he got to 5-6 IP level and we have no flexibility on the 25 man. When these are your options, this is why Ubaldo stays.

[LookitsPuck]

If you're judging player value based on something as, ahem, quixotic as ERA, advanced stats may not be right for you.

It's almost like starting pitchers with 4.33 Fips have some value in the league!

You can save talking down to me re: advanced stats. I used ERA once alongside WAR. It's all a matter of how you interpret the stats and leverage them alongside of others instead of treating one or the other as gospel. Just like FIP is by no means perfect by itself. Especially with Ubaldo considering his walk rate is abysmal.

It's not like Ubaldo has hard luck. He doesn't know where the ball is going. Despite what people want to say...his 2 seamer was out of the zone yesterday and the times it was in the zone it was belt high or higher.

Here's an easy one:

His 4.8 BB/9 is up there with his 2014 season w/ the O's (4.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.516 WHIP) and his 2012 season w/ the Indians (5.40 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.613 WHIP).

Guess what his numbers this year are? 6.04 ERA, 4.33 FIP (and trending UP), 1.776 WHIP. His hit rate is the highest it's been his entire career (11.2 this year vs. 8.3 career). Actually, his highest ever prior to this year was 9.7 back in (wait for it) 2012.

Are you seeing a trend here?

There's no value here with Ubaldo. He's allowed 4 or more runs in 5 out of 9 starts. He's walked 4 or more batters 5 out of 9 starts.

The problem here is Ubaldo essentially threw away this season when he reverted his mechanics to his 2014 numbers. This is causing his control to be completely out of whack. He either walks guys or tweaks his delivery some so that his pitches are higher/more in the zone...but at that point guys are just hitting them hard.

Here's an ugly trend:

His 4 seamer this year has a 339 BAA. Last year? 205.

His 2 seamer? 311.

His slider? 316.

His splitter is his only pitch that doesn't do much damage (245).

And the problem with the above? Ubaldo is a 4 seamer, 2 seamer, splitter and slider guy. But when 3 out of his 4 pitches are poor, he's going to either get rocked/walk a lot of guys.

[Redskins Rick]

Didn't Kim play in spring training and went 0-24?

He did, but that doesn't explain, why, he had zero bats the rest of ST.