Bowden: Manny's agent proposed a long-term deal to the O's before the season started

[Frobby]

Wow. Ok then. I'm an old head.

Too much variance in any projection of future performance for me to feel comfortable giving estimates.

As mentioned, Davis got $3.3 mm after his first season with the O's, in which he posted an .827 OPS as a 1B/DH. I have to figure Schoop is going to get at least that much next year. The rest is just assuming he stays more or less the player he is.

[Can_of_corn]

As mentioned, Davis got $3.3 mm after his first season with the O's, in which he posted an .827 OPS as a 1B/DH. I have to figure Schoop is going to get at least that much next year. The rest is just assuming he stays more or less the player he is.

I wasn't questioning the numbers, I am just not confident that Schoop is a 4 win player going forward (he's at 2.4/2.3).

[Dark Helmet]

I think that is really like 3/26 isn't it?

Pretty much. But it guarantees Schoop gets a sizeable payday, and he will still have a shot at another large contract.

[El Gordo]

From 5 to 15 to 20 ? WoW!

Suppose he wins the MVP?

[El Gordo]

Buy out his arb years at 30 M and give him 3 FA years at 40 M AAV. That's 5/150 and more than he can expect to get if he sticks to arb. Then look to renegotiate after 5 years, thus avoiding the dread opt out.

[Frobby]

From 5 to 15 to 20 ? WoW!

Josh Donaldson made $4.3 mm in 2015, and is making $11.65 mm this year and $17 mm next year. I already amended my numbers down a little, but there's a pretty good chance Manny will be in the Donaldson range the next two years.

Speaking of Donaldson, he has a 1.308 OPS in his last 31 games and has blown past Manny in OPS (1.017) and WAR (5.5). That kind of snuck up on me.

[weams]

Josh Donaldson made $4.3 mm in 2015, and is making $11.65 mm this year and $17 mm next year. I already amended my numbers down a little, but there's a pretty good chance Manny will be in the Donaldson range the next two years.

Speaking of Donaldson, he has a 1.308 OPS in his last 31 games and has blown past Manny in OPS (1.017) and WAR (5.5). That kind of snuck up on me.

Fair enough.

[BradyBunch]

Josh Donaldson made $4.3 mm in 2015, and is making $11.65 mm this year and $17 mm next year. I already amended my numbers down a little, but there's a pretty good chance Manny will be in the Donaldson range the next two years.

Speaking of Donaldson, he has a 1.308 OPS in his last 31 games and has blown past Manny in OPS (1.017) and WAR (5.5). That kind of snuck up on me.

Donaldson signed 2 year deal with Jays. Jays wanted to limit arb cost as he could have easily got 15 mil at the hearing.

[atomic]

OK then $25 MM for the 2 arbitration years (at a minimum) and then 5 years at $30 MM for 7-$175 MM guaranteed. What are there like 3 players making $30 MM now?

Then offer 5 additional option years where his salary is the average of the top 5 players (not including Manny) from the previous season.

The O's can decide not to exercise the option or Manny can decide to opt out. Seven years out he is already wealthy and guaranteed a shot at filthy rich.

If Machado is going to take 30 million a year to sign he might as well start packing his bags now.

[atomic]

Manny is the most important player to this organization. If they can sign him to a 10-year contract, he will go down in history as the greatest Orioles ever. He's that good and that much of sure thing. I don't think the Orioles can afford to NOT sign him because of the backlash that would come from not signing the guy you drafted and developed from scratch. From Manny's perspective, he has a chance to lay down a legacy here. Sure, he can chase the ulmighty top dollar, and that probably won't be from the O's, but he can be very, very wealthy man for the rest of life, plus leave a legacy behind. That sure is a nice thing to be able to say IMHO.

They let Mussina go. And Mussina wasn't asking for crazy money. I see Manny leaving if he is trying to get top money

[Tony-OH]

They let Mussina go. And Mussina wasn't asking for crazy money. I see Manny leaving if he is trying to get top money

The Orioles ended up matching the Yankees offer but Mu$$ina had his panties in a wad and left. Plus, Mu$$ina was a guy who didn't want the pressure of being an ace for a team. He liked settling in under the radar a bit as a 3rd starter.

Regardless of Mu$$ina, Angelos has changed since then and has shown he's been willing to pay for his talent. I think ultimately as long as Manny isn't looking for more than $30 mil a season, the Orioles will resign him. But I agree, if Manny is looking for top dollar, he's gone.

[OFFNY]

The Orioles ended up matching the Yankees offer but Mu$$ina had his panties in a wad and left. Plus, Mu$$ina was a guy who didn't want the pressure of being an ace for a team. He liked settling in under the radar a bit as a 3rd starter.

Regardless of Mu$$ina, Angelos has changed since then and has shown he's been willing to pay for his talent. I think that ultimately, as long as Manny isn't looking for more than $30 mil a season, the Orioles will resign him. But I agree, if Manny is looking for top dollar, he's gone.

Do you think that just the fact that Machado let the press know that he is interested in an extension that he is leaning towards signing with the Orioles, even if it is only for $30 Million per year instead of $35 Million per year elsewhere?

[Frobby]

The Orioles ended up matching the Yankees offer but Mu$$ina had his panties in a wad and left. Plus, Mu$$ina was a guy who didn't want the pressure of being an ace for a team. He liked settling in under the radar a bit as a 3rd starter.

Regardless of Mu$$ina, Angelos has changed since then and has shown he's been willing to pay for his talent. I think ultimately as long as Manny isn't looking for more than $30 mil a season, the Orioles will resign him. But I agree, if Manny is looking for top dollar, he's gone.

I'm not going to reiterate my arguments with you on the topic of Mussina over the years, but the Orioles did not match the Yankees offer. They raised their offer once they found out Mussina was talking to the Yankees, but their revised offer was not close to the Yankess' offer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/2000/11/28/orioles-raise-offer-to-mussina/d552f4ca-7769-48df-a1c0-26033ba30f55/

In any event, it has been 15 years since then and hopefully Angelos has learned a few things in the interim.

[Redskins Rick]

I'm not going to reiterate my arguments with you on the topic of Mussina over the years, but the Orioles did not match the Yankees offer. They raised their offer once they found out Mussina was talking to the Yankees, but their revised offer was not close to the Yankess' offer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/2000/11/28/orioles-raise-offer-to-mussina/d552f4ca-7769-48df-a1c0-26033ba30f55/

In any event, it has been 15 years since then and hopefully Angelos has learned a few things in the interim.

Very true, thankfully this is not the same organization that ran Davy Johnson out of town, and became the laughing stock of baseball.

[FlipTheBird]

If Machado is going to take 30 million a year to sign he might as well start packing his bags now.

When the time comes, I just hope the O's are smart enough to either sign Machado BEFORE his last year before FA... or accept that they wont, cut bait and get what they can for him. Don't just let him walk.