How many wins will it take to make atleast the wild card game.

[ChuckS]

Looking at what other teams need to do down the stretch, I think we can play .500 over our next 16 and have a good chance of getting in (88 wins).

To get to 88 wins the Mariners would have go go 10-6, Tigers would have to go 10-6 (they are losing tonight), Yankees would have to go 11-5 (they are losing tonight), Astros would have to go 12-4.

Finish 9-7 (89 wins) and we are probably a lock, but I think 88 could do it.

[Filmstudy]

Looking at what other teams need to do down the stretch, I think we can play .500 over our next 16 and have a good chance of getting in (88 wins).

To get to 88 wins the Mariners would have go go 10-6, Tigers would have to go 10-6 (they are losing tonight), Yankees would have to go 11-5 (they are losing tonight), Astros would have to go 12-4.

Finish 9-7 (89 wins) and we are probably a lock, but I think 88 could do it.

I think you're right, but you should also toss the Blue Jays in this batch. I look at it as a case where 2 teams (make it 3 if you include Boston) need to play very well if the O's go 9-7 (now 8-7) the rest of the way. And Seattle's 3-game series vs. the Blue Jays should help.

[Filmstudy]

Here's another way to look at it (with Tor still playing vs. the Angels on 9/16). If the Orioles go 8-7 the rest of the way to finish 89-83, then 3 other 7 teams competing for the 3 spots (AL Div + 2 WC) will have to play as follows to tie the O's:

Target Record 89 73

Team W L RW RL

Bal 81 66 8 7

Bos 83 64 6 9

Tor 80 66 9 7

NYY 77 70 12 3

Det 78 69 11 4

KC 74 72 15 1

Sea 78 68 11 5

Hou 76 70 13 3

I don't think 2 teams are likely to play as well as these records, let alone 3.

For 88 wins it looks like this:

Target Record 88 74

Team W L RW RL

Bal 81 66 7 8

Bos 83 64 5 10

Tor 80 66 8 8

NYY 77 70 11 4

Det 78 69 10 5

KC 74 72 14 2

Sea 78 68 10 6

Hou 76 70 12 4

Not a sure thing, but I'd still handicap this as 55% WC, 30% play-in game, 15% out.

Let's also look at 87 wins while we're here:

Target Record 87 75

Team W L RW RL

Bal 81 66 6 9

Bos 83 64 4 11

Tor 80 66 7 9

NYY 77 70 10 5

Det 78 69 9 6

KC 74 72 13 3

Sea 78 68 9 7

Hou 76 70 11 5

I can certainly see some 3-team set getting to at least 87, but that might still leave the O's with a play-in opportunity as well.

BTW, I can see how unreadable this is in tabular form, but it looked good in the editor. Is there a format choice which will make the table readable?