If we miss the playoffs this year, trade Manny and sign Schoop

[weams]

Did he? Link, please. I don't recall the details.

I had heard the same thing. but I may not have a link either.

[Frobby]

You can kind of think of it this way: Ken Griffey, Jr. was worth 30.1 WAR through his age 23 season in 734 games; Manny has been worth 24.0 WAR through his age 23 year old season in 580 games (28 games to go this season, so he could pick up another 1.0 WAR this season). Griffey was worth 83 WAR in his career but most of that was through his age 30 season. If Manny has a healthier career he could easily surpass that. But you never know how a player will age and what injuries may slow them down.

I can't find a list of highest WAR through age 23 that goes beyond the top 10, but 10th on the list is Rogers Hornsby at 26.5. Manny should finish the year at about 25.0 at his current pace this season. So, I'm sure that's somewhere in the top 20 all time.

[FlipTheBird]

Why would the Atros trade Bregman for Manny? Bergman can play short or third and has more years of team control and is producing at major league level.

Because, no matter what his scouting report looks like, there's at best a 5% chance that Alex Bregman ever becomes as good as Manny Machado is right now. Manny is already a beast. While Bregman's early returns look solid, the chances of becoming the next Machado are poor.

[thezeroes]

I can't find a list of highest WAR through age 23 that goes beyond the top 10, but 10th on the list is Rogers Hornsby at 26.5. Manny should finish the year at about 25.0 at his current pace this season. So, I'm sure that's somewhere in the top 20 all time.

Baseball Reference Standard WAR for Position Players

Mike Trout 37.9 From 2011 To 2015 Age 19-23 Games 652

Ty Cobb 36 From 1905 To 1910 Age 18-23 Games 735

Ted Williams 34.2 From 1939 To 1942 Age 20-23 Games 586

Mel Ott 31.4 From 1926 To 1932 Age 17-23 Games 831

Ken Griffey 30.1 From 1989 To 1993 Age 19-23 Games 734

Mickey Mantle 29.7 From 1951 To 1955 Age 19-23 Games 658

Alex Rodriguez 27.7 From 1994 To 1999 Age 18-23 Games 642

Al Kaline 27.5 From 1953 To 1958 Age 18-23 Games 768

Arky Vaughan 26.7 From 1932 To 1935 Age 20-23 Games 567

Rogers Hornsby 26.5 From 1915 To 1919 Age 19-23 Games 555

Andruw Jones 26.1 From 1996 To 2000 Age 19-23 Games 666

Eddie Mathews 25.8 From 1952 To 1955 Age 20-23 Games 581

Jimmie Foxx 25.5 From 1925 To 1931 Age 17-23 Games 656

Cesar Cedeno 24.9 From 1970 To 1974 Age 19-23 Games 689

Vada Pinson 24.6 From 1958 To 1962 Age 19-23 Games 644

Manny Machado 24 From 2012 To 2016 Age 19-23 Games 580

Stan Musial 24 From 1941 To 1944 Age 20-23 Games 455

[CheeryO]

No offense, but you're not measuring this by the correct measurements (comparing to various others in the league, in individual seasons) to get a true scope of what Manny is doing. Take a look at the bigger picture. He's putting up HoF numbers... really, the only question is, which tier?

Manny is presently averaging 6.7 WAR per 162 games for his career. Of course, you can't say he's going to keep that pace up for an entire career (that would put him at about 130 - 135 WAR over a 20 season career, accounting that he lost the equivalent of a season to his knee injuries)... but if he managed it? He's in the neighborhood of only two other infielders in the history of the MLB (Honus Wagner at 131 WAR and Rogers Hornsby at 127 WAR).

Even if he drops off a bit (say finishes closer to 4.5 to 5.5 WAR a season) he's still going to finish in the 85 - 105 WAR range. That would put him right in there in range with shortstops and third basemen like Cal (who at 95.5 WAR, has the second highest WAR total in history for a shortstop), Wade Boggs (91 WAR), and George Brett (88.4 WAR). Once again: that's presuming he finishes his career at pace that's about 75% to 80% of his present one.

That's how we should be judging Manny. If he can keep this up, he'll not just be a Hall of Famer. He'll be a legend.

Good post. I agree with what you say though by my own math Manny is averaging 6.35 WAR per year based on his performance so far, weighted according to his overall WAR by season and how many games he played each season, all using his WAR totals from Baseball-Reference.com. I was no math major so my methodology may have a flaw or two, but I think it's pretty sound.

A few things: first of all it was probably my fault for bring up WAR, or at least bringing it up with a player like Manny without giving it some context in that so much of his WAR value early in his career came from his defense while the past couple years the majority of his WAR value has come far more from his offense. The reason I bring this up is that it shows how Manny is a unique case of a player who is great but whose greatness is difficult to measure in a balanced way.

Also, Manny has already suffered one or two pretty significant knee injuries, also which makes considering potential future risk/value difficult to gauge. Is he pretty much over them because he's still so young? Or will they nag and linger like with other players like Ellsbury and others who struggled with the injury bug? Should injury history be a consideration when considering whether to trade him vs whether to make a big offer? This is yet something else that makes Manny's value a tough one.

But I still think Manny is slightly overrated in that the really huge contracts tend to go to the players who have produced monster offensive numbers. Just for the sake of an off the wall comparison, Jason Heyward is and isn't a good comparison for considering what to offer Manny because although Heyward's contract was obviously a huge mistake, while Heyward like Manny is a defensive stud, Heyward has regressed offensively while Manny has only gotten better. Does that mean Manny should be paid more than Jason? In theory yes, definitely, but in reality no because Heyward's contract was a monster mistake by the Cubs. So Manny is probably worth something like what Heyward got because Manny has actually shown the bat and the offense. But if Manny's agent points to the Heyward contract and says Manny deserves more because Manny has produced where Heyward hasn't, then you're in a situation where you probably have to let Manny go because some other team's front office could make Manny and offer completely out of proportion to reality.

That said, I think for now the O's should not be even thinking about trading Manny unless the 2017 Orioles are out of contention next July.

[atomic]

Because, no matter what his scouting report looks like, there's at best a 5% chance that Alex Bregman ever becomes as good as Manny Machado is right now. Manny is already a beast. While Bregman's early returns look solid, the chances of becoming the next Machado are poor.

Well that is just your opinion. And even if you were correct the Astros aren't going to trade a cheap player with 6 more years of team control for an expensive player like Machado with 2 more years of team control. They kept Bregman in the minors long enough to make sure he wasn't a super 2 player. They would never deal him for Machado. If you say the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers prospect you might have more of a realistic scenario.

[weams]

Well that is just your opinion. And even if you were correct the Astros aren't going to trade a cheap player with 6 more years of team control for an expensive player like Machado with 2 more years of team control. They kept Bregman in the minors long enough to make sure he wasn't a super 2 player. They would never deal him for Machado. If you say the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers prospect you might have more of a realistic scenario.

Depends if they want some playoff return the next two seasons. Also. They are from Texas. They could afford to extend Manny.

[Can_of_corn]

Good post. I agree with what you say though by my own math Manny is averaging 6.35 WAR per year based on his performance so far, weighted according to his overall WAR by season and how many games he played each season, all using his WAR totals from Baseball-Reference.com. I was no math major so my methodology may have a flaw or two, but I think it's pretty sound.

A few things: first of all it was probably my fault for bring up WAR, or at least bringing it up with a player like Manny without giving it some context in that so much of his WAR value early in his career came from his defense while the past couple years the majority of his WAR value has come far more from his offense. The reason I bring this up is that it shows how Manny is a unique case of a player who is great but whose greatness is difficult to measure in a balanced way.

Also, Manny has already suffered one or two pretty significant knee injuries, also which makes considering potential future risk/value difficult to gauge. Is he pretty much over them because he's still so young? Or will they nag and linger like with other players like Ellsbury and others who struggled with the injury bug? Should injury history be a consideration when considering whether to trade him vs whether to make a big offer? This is yet something else that makes Manny's value a tough one.

But I still think Manny is slightly overrated in that the really huge contracts tend to go to the players who have produced monster offensive numbers. Just for the sake of an off the wall comparison, Jason Heyward is and isn't a good comparison for considering what to offer Manny because although Heyward's contract was obviously a huge mistake, while Heyward like Manny is a defensive stud, Heyward has regressed offensively while Manny has only gotten better. Does that mean Manny should be paid more than Jason? In theory yes, definitely, but in reality no because Heyward's contract was a monster mistake by the Cubs. So Manny is probably worth something like what Heyward got because Manny has actually shown the bat and the offense. But if Manny's agent points to the Heyward contract and says Manny deserves more because Manny has produced where Heyward hasn't, then you're in a situation where you probably have to let Manny go because some other team's front office could make Manny and offer completely out of proportion to reality.

That said, I think for now the O's should not be even thinking about trading Manny unless the 2017 Orioles are out of contention next July.

By all accounts Manny had a genetic issue with his knees. One that has been fixed. While I am sure there are some long term side effects of the injury and surgeries I don't see any reason to expect a recurrence.

As for Heyward the only thing that is obvious is that he has struggled nightly with the bat this season.

He is 26 and in the first year of the deal. He put up 6 wins seasons the last two years.

I think it is premature to write him off.

[weams]

By all accounts Manny had a genetic issue with his knees. One that has been fixed. While I am sure there are some long term side effects of the injury and surgeries I don't see any reason to expect a recurrence.

As for Heyward the only thing that is obvious is that he has struggled nightly with the bat this season.

He is 26 and in the first year of the deal. He put up 6 wins seasons the last two years.

I think it is premature to write him off.

I write him off. I think he was overblown.

[Can_of_corn]

I write him off. I think he was overblown.

Your predilections run toward the offense side of the game.

[weams]

Your predilections run toward the offense side of the game.

Defense suffers the slings and arrows of time and injury. Not really something that adaption can hold steady.

[Nevermore]

Are you sure that Schoop will sign long-term without his buddy Manny? I would try and sign them both.

[Can_of_corn]

Are you sure that Schoop will sign long-term without his buddy Manny? I would try and sign them both.

I don't think their friendship will be a determining factor in either one of them extending.

[FlipTheBird]

Well that is just your opinion. And even if you were correct the Astros aren't going to trade a cheap player with 6 more years of team control for an expensive player like Machado with 2 more years of team control. They kept Bregman in the minors long enough to make sure he wasn't a super 2 player. They would never deal him for Machado. If you say the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers prospect you might have more of a realistic scenario.

No one was taking the Astros' finances into account, since it was a hypothetical scenario. All Frobby as proposing was the kind of package it would take to land Manny Machado. The Astros just made for an easy example, player assets wise.

He would take a massive collection of young talent to acquire.

[McLovin]

Schoop has been kinda terrible in the 2nd half - .238/.266/.409/.675. 5 walks. I can't find the splits, but in his 181 2nd half AB's, I'd be shocked if he's seen 182 pitches.