Talent deficiency

[ChuckS]

With all the talk about poor approach, being flat, and not having "fight" and other intangible terms, it just comes down to the fact that the Jays have much better players than us. Just a quick comparison:

C Wieters vs. Martin

1B Davis vs. Encarnacion

2B Schoop vs. Travis

3B Machado vs. Donaldson (higher WAR and higher OPS)

SS Hardy vs. Tulowitzki

LF Kim vs. Carrera/Upton

CF Jones vs. Pillar (higher WAR)

RF Trumbo vs. Saunders (higher WAR)

DH Alvarez vs. Smoak

Starting Rotation:

Tillman vs. Happ

Gausman vs. Sanchez

Bundy vs. Estrada

Ubaldo vs. Stroman

Miley vs. Liriano

We have a better bullpen and are better in maybe two places in the lineup. What's amazing is not how Toronto seems to have our number, but how they are only two games ahead of us in the standings.

[TINSTAAPP]

What's amazing is not how Toronto seems to have our number, but how they are only two games ahead of us in the standings.

Orioles record leading after 7 innings 59-4

Blue Jays record leading after 7 innings 68-16

The Orioles have a significantly stronger bullpen in high leverage situations. It's not even close really. If the Blue Jays had the same winning percentage as the Orioles after 7 innings, they would have 97 wins and be on the verge of clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Conversely, the Orioles would have eight fewer wins and be one game below .500 if they had the same winning percentage after seven innings as the Blue Jays.

[slakattack]

Orioles record leading after 7 innings 59-4

Blue Jays record leading after 7 innings 68-16

The Orioles have a significantly stronger bullpen in high leverage situations. It's not even close really. If the Blue Jays had the same winning percentage as the Orioles after 7 innings, they would have 97 wins and be on the verge of clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Conversely, the Orioles would have eight fewer wins and be one game below .500 if they had the same winning percentage after seven innings as the Blue Jays.

Yes and Toronto has taken a lead into the 8th 21 more games than the Orioles have so there's that...

[spiritof66]

I have a couple of quibbles with the OP's choices, but the basic point is correct: TOR has a lot more talent than the Orioles. Before the season, I expressed that view and said the most likely impediments to TOR winning the division were injuries and a pretty clueless manager. I missed the Red Sox.

We can beat that better team 2 or 3 times in the next week. But they are a lot better.

[ChuckS]

I have a couple of quibbles with the OP's choices, but the basic point is correct: TOR has a lot more talent than the Orioles. Before the season, I expressed that view and said the most likely impediments to TOR winning the division were injuries and a pretty clueless manager. I missed the Red Sox.

We can beat that better team 2 or 3 times in the next week. But they are a lot better.

I'll be satisfied with once this week and once next week.

I would also be satisfied with zero times this week and once next week, but zero times this week doesn't get us to next week in all likelihood.

[LookitsPuck]

Personally I think we're splitting hairs over Machado vs. Donaldson. They're both MVP caliber players with very similar WAR (Machado: 6.9, Donaldson: 7.2).

Same goes for Trumbo and Saunders (Trumbo WAR: 1.3, Saunders: 1.5).

While Davis has struggling mightily at times this year, we're still talking 3.2 WAR for Davis vs. 3.8 Encarnacion. Yes, Edwin gets the nod...but once again..splitting hairs.

I actually really like Martin over Wieters, but that's largely because I put a lot of weight on pitch framing and I think Wieters is terrible at it...and Martin is superb.

I do like Travis over Schoop and Tulo over Hardy.

I actually still prefer Jones over Pillar...but Jones's defense really took a hit this year.

But generally speaking, the Blue Jays have a better OF defense than the O's, whereas I feel the O's have a better IF defense...although it's pretty damn close.

The Blue Jays have a better offense. And a better rotation. The rotation is world's better than the O's (O's: 4.82 ERA, Jays: 3.70 ERA).

The Orioles have a better bullpen.

Put it all together and it comes down to this:

Defense: Blue Jays (Better OF and C and similar IF)

Offense: Blue Jays (4.8 R/G over O's 4.6 R/G).

Bullpen: Orioles

Rotation: Blue Jays

It stands out how poorly Duquette constructed this roster. Outfield defense came last (Reimold, Kim, Trumbo, Rickard). Homers came first. No team speed. And starting pitching he really, really wiffed on (Gallardo, Miley, cutting Gonzo, starting Mike Wright, trading Miranda).

[Frobby]

My only quibble with the OP is that it excludes the bullpen from its analysis of "talent." But in simple terms, the Jays have outscored their opponents by 98 runs, while we've outscored ours by 18. Yes, both they and Boston have more talent than the Orioles. That doesn't mean we couldn't beat either team in a one-game playoff or a short series.

[Phantom]

I think the Red Sox and the Blue Jays both have more talent than us. So if we are neck and neck with the Jays, shouldn't we give a ton of credit to the coaching, the players heart, and the GM for assembling a team that outperforms its talent level?

[bobmc]

Personally I think we're splitting hairs over Machado vs. Donaldson. They're both MVP caliber players with very similar WAR (Machado: 6.9, Donaldson: 7.2).

Same goes for Trumbo and Saunders (Trumbo WAR: 1.3, Saunders: 1.5).

While Davis has struggling mightily at times this year, we're still talking 3.2 WAR for Davis vs. 3.8 Encarnacion. Yes, Edwin gets the nod...but once again..splitting hairs.

I actually really like Martin over Wieters, but that's largely because I put a lot of weight on pitch framing and I think Wieters is terrible at it...and Martin is superb.

I do like Travis over Schoop and Tulo over Hardy.

I actually still prefer Jones over Pillar...but Jones's defense really took a hit this year.

But generally speaking, the Blue Jays have a better OF defense than the O's, whereas I feel the O's have a better IF defense...although it's pretty damn close.

The Blue Jays have a better offense. And a better rotation. The rotation is world's better than the O's (O's: 4.82 ERA, Jays: 3.70 ERA).

The Orioles have a better bullpen.

Put it all together and it comes down to this:

Defense: Blue Jays (Better OF and C and similar IF)

Offense: Blue Jays (4.8 R/G over O's 4.6 R/G).

Bullpen: Orioles

Rotation: Blue Jays

It stands out how poorly Duquette constructed this roster. Outfield defense came last (Reimold, Kim, Trumbo, Rickard). Homers came first. No team speed. And starting pitching he really, really wiffed on (Gallardo, Miley, cutting Gonzo, starting Mike Wright, trading Miranda).

Nice summary - DD tried but failed. Buck did as well as he could, with a few exceptions but why quibble. Larry David might say, "Pretty pretty pretty pretty good!"

[Frobby]

Tonight's game was the perfect example of how we've hung with the Jays despite their superior lineup and starting rotation.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Nice summary - DD tried but failed. Buck did as well as he could, with a few exceptions but why quibble. Larry David might say, "Pretty pretty pretty pretty good!"

Why is the conclusion failure here?

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[SteveA]

Why is the conclusion failure here?

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Because we are in position to make the playoffs and have already achieved our third best win total in the last 19 years.

Obviously people must have expected much more than this poor season.

Hence the disappointment and calling it a failure.

As an exercise, I'd like to take the people who are most vocal in being upset with the team, and dig back into their posts from before the season, and see where they expected us to finish. I guess they all figured we'd win 90+ games?!?? Or else I cant understand why they complain so much.

But I'm too lazy to do all that archive digging.

[weams]

Because we are in position to make the playoffs and have already achieved our third best win total in the last 19 years.

Obviously people must have expected much more than this poor season.

Hence the disappointment and calling it a failure.

As an exercise, I'd like to take the people who are most vocal in being upset with the team, and dig back into their posts from before the season, and see where they expected us to finish. I guess they all figured we'd win 90+ games?!?? Or else I cant understand why they complain so much.

But I'm too lazy to do all that archive digging.

Baseball is a game of failure. Especially at the plate. If someone wants to be lazy and right all the time. Predict failure for hitters.

[Tx Oriole]

With all the talk about poor approach, being flat, and not having "fight" and other intangible terms, it just comes down to the fact that the Jays have much better players than us. Just a quick comparison:

C Wieters vs. Martin

1B Davis vs. Encarnacion

2B Schoop vs. Travis

3B Machado vs. Donaldson (higher WAR and higher OPS)

SS Hardy vs. Tulowitzki

LF Kim vs. Carrera/Upton

CF Jones vs. Pillar (higher WAR)

RF Trumbo vs. Saunders (higher WAR)

DH Alvarez vs. Smoak

Starting Rotation:

Tillman vs. Happ

Gausman vs. Sanchez

Bundy vs. Estrada

Ubaldo vs. Stroman

Miley vs. Liriano

We have a better bullpen and are better in maybe two places in the lineup. What's amazing is not how Toronto seems to have our number, but how they are only two games ahead of us in the standings.

And yet the O's won the game.

[bobmc]

And yet the O's won the game.

They live to play another day with Buck pushing all of the right buttons. If we win no more games, we still have this! Off of the "deathbed"!

Pretty pretty pretty pretty good! :clap3: