The Lineup - Maximizing OBP at Top, then Power

[larrytt]

Against Righties
LF Hyun Kim (L) (.393 OBP vs. righties)
RF Seth Smith (L) (.351 OBP vs. righties)
3rd Manny Machado (R) (37 HR)
1st Chris Davis (L) (38 HR)
DH Mark Trumbo (R) (47 HR)
CF Adam Jones (R) (29 HR)
2nd Jonathan Schoop (R) (25 HR)
C Welington Castillo (R)
SS J.J. Hardy (R)

Against Lefties
LF Joey Rickard (R) (.367 OBP vs. lefties)
DH Trey Mancini (R) (.384 OBP, .978 OPS vs. lefties in AAA)
3rd Manny Machado (R) (37 HR)
RF Mark Trumbo (R) (47 HR)
1st Chris Davis (L) (38 HR)
CF Adam Jones (R) (29 HR)
2nd Jonathan Schoop (R) (25 HR)
C Welington Castillo (R)
SS J.J. Hardy (R)

Advantages

• Gives extremely high OBP at the first two spots in the lineup.

• Literal "Murderer's Row" from 3-7, who average 35.2 HR last year.

• Keeps two strong pinch hitters on bench for opposite-handed relief pitcher.

Disadvantages

• Not a lot of speed except for Rickard against lefties.

• Against righties, lefties batting 1, 2, and 4.

• Mancini mashes lefties, but is unproven at major league level.

[Can_of_corn]

Why is Machado batting third?

 

#Thirdisfifth

[Dark Helmet]

I doubt Buck bats Jones that low. No matter who's pitching. Right now, Jones is the leadoff hitter. 

[Frobby]

I think we'll see dozens of combinations, like every year.  

[MDtransplant757]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we'll see dozens of combinations, like every year.  

$5 says that a lot of these are tried in ST

[backwardsk]

I wouldn't bat Kim and Smith back to back. Too easy to match up with later in the game.  

I'd drop Smith to sixth and slide everyone up one.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I wouldn't bat Kim and Smith back to back. Too easy to match up with later in the game.  

I'd drop Smith to sixth and slide everyone up one.

Better off moving Machado up one, and moving Jones to third.

[backwardsk]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Better off moving Machado up one, and moving Jones to third.

You could do that.  I'd prefer to have my better OBP guys 1-3.  Hopefully increase the amount of fastballs Jones sees.

[backwardsk]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Why would Jones see more fastballs in that scenario?    You think teams are afraid of Kim stealing bases?

We don't steal bases, but pitchers don't want to advance runners by bouncing breaking balls.

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Show me how pitcher's throw significantly less breaking balls with runners on base and maybe I'll buy it.   Right now, I do not buy it for a second.   Jones would probably see less fastballs with runners on base.

I agree with backwardsk in that, a lot of pitchers know AJ and CD's ability to chase.,,more to the fact the O's are built on free swinging. I think that's the mindset for most opposing pitchers. Toss a twister low (not in the dirt mind you) and get them to chase. Those without pinpoint control might keep the FB closer in the zone, for fear of moving a runner up easily.

[weams]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Show me how pitcher's throw significantly less breaking balls with runners on base and maybe I'll buy it.   Right now, I do not buy it for a second.   Jones would probably see less fastballs with runners on base.

Why so? I thought all pitcher throw more fastballs with runners on. Or is that just in the AL?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Why so? I thought all pitcher through more fastballs with runners on. Or is that just in the AL?

Key word here is significantly.

[weams]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don't know the answer.   Is there some statistic that show that Adam Jones sees more fastballs with runners on base?     It's generally assumed that pitchers may want to throw more fastballs with a basestealer at 1B or refrain from throwing breaking balls in the dirt with a runner on 3rd base.   I just question the fact that Adam Jones is likely to see more fastballs with Kim on 1B than he would with no one on base.

Another general assumption, at least on my part, is that pitchers may challenge less with a runner or runners on base than with the bases empty.   Therefore, I would think the opposite than you or the other poster suggested.   I would think that Adam Jones would see less hittable fastballs and maybe just less fastballs with runners on.

I obviously thought the opposite. Thanks for the explanation of your view. 

[weams]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Key word here is significantly.

Again, observationally, I have felt over the years that a significant number of harder pitches and strike zone fastballs are thrown with any runner on base, not just speedy ones. Not talking taking leads and dancing off first, just talking what I've seen. 

[wildcard]

1. Rickard RF - has to proven he can hit righties for this to work

2. Smith/Kim LF - with Tavarez as late inning defensive replacement.  Kim or Tavarez vs lefties.

3. Manny 3B

4. Davis 1B

5. Trumbo DH

6. Jones CF

7. Schoop 2b

8. Castillo/Joseph/ Maybe Sisco in the  2nd half

9. Hardy