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Are Free Agent Contracts Worth It?


Bahama O's Fan

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1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

This article states that 9 out of the top 10 contracts handed out last winter are problematic:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/quick-hits-free-agents-johnson-braves-blue-jays-reds-shaffer.html

Should teams shy away from free agency?  

Most free agent contracts fail miserably. Most teams that win World Series have a substantial one or two. 

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I think we might be reaching a point where hopefully the insanity around free agency spending slows down...I can't believe I hear $400m type of figures for Machado or Harper. Not to mention fringe all star types of players like Chris Davis and Jason Werth get ridiculous contracts. It's out of control.

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Just now, oriole said:

I think we might be reaching a point where hopefully the insanity around free agency spending slows down...I can't believe I hear $400m type of figures for Machado or Harper. Not to mention fringe all star types of players like Chris Davis and Jason Werth get ridiculous contracts. It's out of control.

If they continue to develop over the next two seasons we will be looking at 500M.

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1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

If they continue to develop over the next two seasons we will be looking at 500M.

I've seen those numbers thrown out there, but I don't think it's based in reality.  

Let's get real.  A team of 25 can't have half or a third of it's payroll devoted to one player.  Crawl before you can walk. We need to get to 400 mil before we get to 500.  

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28 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I've seen those numbers thrown out there, but I don't think it's based in reality.  

Let's get real.  A team of 25 can't have half or a third of it's payroll devoted to one player.  Crawl before you can walk. We need to get to 400 mil before we get to 500.  

A year or so they were talking 300-350 M. Now it's 400M. If either has an MVP season the next two years it will be 500M.

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23 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

A year or so they were talking 300-350 M. Now it's 400M. If either has an MVP season the next two years it will be 500M.

You are missing my point.  What people are talking about is irrelevant.  We have to see a 400 million dollar contract before we see a 500M.  A jump from 325 mil (Stanton - heavily backloaded) to 500 mil not going to happen. 

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Just now, ChuckS said:

You are missing my point.  What people are talking about is irrelevant.  We have to see a 400 million dollar contract before we see a 500M.  A jump from 325 mil (Stanton - heavily backloaded) to 500 mil not going to happen. 

I've asked this before.  How big was the Arod jump?  Now factor in how much money is in the game now.

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2 hours ago, oriole said:

I think we might be reaching a point where hopefully the insanity around free agency spending slows down...I can't believe I hear $400m type of figures for Machado or Harper. Not to mention fringe all star types of players like Chris Davis and Jason Werth get ridiculous contracts. It's out of control.

It's fair question in my mind.  Where is the saturation point for baseball revenue?  The NHL reached something similar a while ago leading to the lockout and major financial changes.  It was a necessary evil and now the league is doing OK (btw revenue is up from 2.27 billion in 2005/06 to 4.1 billion in 2015-16).

Major League Baseball though is not a regional sport like hockey is in the northern US and Canada -- it's gone global.  IMO Baseball and Basketball have brighter long-term futures than "american football" because of this, though the NFL sees this and is trying REALLY HARD to shove their product down other countries' throats.  We may actually see a BILLION dollar contract before saturation hits.

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Just now, ChuckS said:

You are missing my point.  What people are talking about is irrelevant.  We have to see a 400 million dollar contract before we see a 500M.  A jump from 325 mil (Stanton - heavily backloaded) to 500 mil not going to happen. 

The people who are talking are the evaluaters and the ones familiar with the market. Barring injury it will be at least 400M+

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've asked this before.  How big was the Arod jump?  Now factor in how much money is in the game now.

We didn't really see 8-10 year contracts back then.  They are fairly common place now.  

It only takes one team to overpay I just don't think we will see Machado or Harper get close to 500 mil. 400, sure. 

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