How many games will the Orioles win in 2017?

[Frobby]

 OK, the time seems right for a poll on how the team will do this year.   What say you?

[OFFNY]

o

 

Three.

 

 

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think last year I predicted 77-81 or something like that. 81-84 this year.  Rotation. Rotation. Rotation.

Outfield defense won't do them many favors.

[maybenxtyr]

77-80...That could very depending on how many games Tillman pitches.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Outfield defense won't do them many favors.

I'm still waiting to see who makes the team and how playing time is allocated.    I expect improvement, but don't know yet if it's a little or a lot.    

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm still waiting to see who makes the team and how playing time is allocated.    I expect improvement, but don't know yet if it's a little or a lot.    

I'm hopeful they move from worst to not worst.

[tntoriole]

93-69...AL East title.  World Series champions 2017. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hopeful they move from worst to not worst.

Optimistically, they could be middle of the pack, as they were in 2015 (-1.4 UZR, 16th in MLB).   That depends on a lot of factors.   More realistically, I'd probably hope for a 20-run improvement in OF defense (they were -36.7 last year).    

[scOtt]

90.

[MDK02]

92 wins.

[mrbig1]

I'm saying 90. One more win than last year. I think Gausman  and Bundy are going to be better more of a gut feeling  than anything else.  Tillman is due back on April 11th.  I just hope Rickard and Kim get lots of playing time. Manny Jones Davis Trumbo damn what's not to like? May I add that our wonderful O's has to best record in the AL over the past five years.

[Frobby]

Not a lot of votes in yet.

I'm pretty torn on this one.   I think the mix of position players is better this year, allowing for slightly better OBP, runs scored, stolen bases and OF defense.   

But it still comes down to the rotation, and there's been nothing very encouraging this spring.    Tillman's injury is a real blow, and nobody other than Gausman has looked particularly good this spring.     We just have to cross our fingers and hope.

I'm going to go with the middle road of 85-88 wins, but I definitely have higher aspirations than that.

[thezeroes]

I went with 89 to 92 wins.  I do think the OBP and Defense is better than last year.  I think, if possible, the bullpen will be better than last year.  I also think that the parts of the starting staff, with the 10 day DL, will be more in fluctuation than in years past.  A pitcher will not be skipped in a start but placed on the 10 day DL when they have a nagging issue and the movable pieces at Norfolk and Bowie are better than the Orioles had last year.

 

I will also add that given the amount of wins available in the AL East from other teams will be the deciding factor.  All wins and losses from the competitors do not come in a vaccuum, if a team has a win the opponent will garner a loss.  89 wins could win the division if any of the vaunted pitchers in the east (Boston, Tampa, New York, Toronto) have any regression what so ever.

[webbrick2010]

73-89

Bad starting pitching

Bad OF defense... or bad hitting from COF'ers (pick your poison)

Trumbo & Davis hit a combined .225 while striking out 450 times

Automatic out at SS (Hardy), or during his 40 off days (Flaherty/Janish)

 

[wildcard]

Are the 2017 O's better than last year?

And the answer is a definite "Maybe"

No evaluation of the current  O's can begin anywhere but with Chris Tillman.   If Chris comes back in May and pitches 27 starts of the same quality as we a used to see from him than the O's have a chance to be better.  If he doesn't then the odds are against the O's.   There are many other factors but that is a huge one.

Gausman looks ready to take another step to the top of the rotation.  Even when Chris returns.  Kevin is probably ready to pass him as the ace for the staff.   Bundy looks about the same.  He is capable of taking a no hitter into the 6th and he is also capable of hanging changeups that land in the seats.  He had a 4.52 ERA as a starter last year and that doesn't look like it has changed.   Miley and Ubaldo are capable of eating innings.  Some good, some bad.  I look at them as .500 starters that are capable of 27-32 starts.   With Tillman this is a better rotation than Tillman/Gausman/Ubaldo/Gallado/Wright which is where the O's started last year.  When Gausman and Gallardo were injured Wilson got a lot of starts.   Right now I would say that Ynoa and Aquno have passed Wright and Wilson of the starter depth chart and could get 17 starts between them. Overall that looks better than last year.  But only if Tillman returns in May for 27 starts.

Watching Trumbo and Mancini play first base points out how good Davis is defensively.  Watching Hardy and Schoop play of the hard infield in Florida makes me realize how important Nicole Mcfadyen is to the O's.   Hardy and Schoop are not exactly  rangy.   Sure handed with strong arms but not rangy.. That is probably one of he reasons the O's are challenged on the road.   Manny is all world defensively.  Offensively I expect a healthy Davis, Schoop and Machado to be better.  Manny could contend for the MVP.  Hardy to show his age.   Flaherty to fill in where needed.  As a  unit they could be better than last year mostly because of Davis' health.

Castillo looks like at better catcher than the 2016 version of Wieters.  Better hitter, better behind the plate, equal thrower but he has to learn the pitchers.  I would give him two months to be as good as Wieters in that category.  Joseph has to have a better year than last year.   Probably a lot better.

The outfield has Smith replacing Trumbo in the field and replacing Pedro Alvarez with the bat.   Gentry is replacing Reimold.  Overall there is a lot more options. Some added speed with Gentry and a possible full year of Rickard.  Mancini is probably up and down to the minors.  Available when injuries hit.    Both Gentry and Ruckard are injury prone so Mancini may see some time as their replacement.  Smith's hamstring could be a problem early.  Gentry is quite an upgrade to the outfield defense.  Better range is all three fields than anyone but Jones.  Better arm than Rickard.  If he can only stay healthy.  Rickard showed good range in all three fields this spring but his arm is only average and probably better in left than anywhere else.  It looks like Gentry, Rickard, Kim and Jones will mix and match in the top two spots of the orders which could give more RBI opportunities for the heavy hitters that follow.  Overall I think the defense will be slightly better but not that much when Kim, Smith and Mancini are considered. And the outfield offense should be more versatile.

Trumbo will mainly be the DH and I see his offensive dipping some with  his homers going to 38 from 47 and the rest of his offense following that trend.

I see the pen matching last year.  Britton may not be prefect but will be superior.  A healthy O''Day will be an improvement.  Brach will stay good.  Givens and Hart should improve.  Nuno should match Worley and add a third lefty for a more balanced pen.   Wilson will be part of the Norfolk shuttle  that includes both Ynoa and Aquino after  Tillman returns. 

The main improvement in 2017 are the depth in pitching staff and the outfield.   But the improvement only matters if Tillman returns to form in early May.  Otherwise its a struggle to have enough starting pitching to stay in the hunt.