The window is a myth

[wildcard]

If the O's can maintain a 160m payroll, (and it appears they can) then they can keep enough core players to continue their 5 years of success in the AL East into the future.  There are three essential contracts that need to happen make the window go away.  1) extend Buck, 2) extend Dan, and  sign Manny.   All need to happen his coming off season.  All three look doable.

Yes, even a 10/300 Manny's extension is doable.  That is mainly because Dan continues to churn the roster.  Let some high salaried players go.  Find good players in  what is thought to be a poor farm system while making use of the Rule 5 draft and smart, cheap acquisitions.  This all happens because the network that Buck and Dan have built.  The know people throughout baseball.  They seek advice.  Find value in players that others let go. 

The O's may have 50m coming off the book this fall:

Jimenez 13.5m

Britton  11.5m

Miley 8.75

Smith 7m

Castillo 6m

Kim  4.2m

Total Gone - 50.95m

Certain things have to happen to allow these players to go and not hurt the O's.  1) They have to find two starters out of Ynoa, Aquino and Lee,   2) Mancini and Rickard needs to show he can take over corner outfield spots,   3) Sisco needs to show he is ready to be a front line catcher.  All those things are in the realm of possibility and Buck and Dan will be trying to make them happen with development of young players this year.   I expect all these players will see time in the majors this year to prepare them for their roles next year.

Britton will need to be traded this off season.  He is gone after 2018 anyway.  With Boras as his agent he is going through the free agent process.  He will be unaffordable for the O's.  Chapman got 5/86m.   The O''s are not going there.  Not with Brach, O'Day, Givens, Hart, Nuno, Liranzo in  the organization.  Brach should be able to be extended pretty reasonably.  3/21m or so.  They need to trade Britton to get a decent return.  A good, young 3B would help so they can move Manny to SS in the future.

Castillo can opt to stay and the O's have the money to keep him.  But he could opt out and go for bigger contract.  I think this season will be a great opportunity for him to leverage himself for a future contract.

Why do I think the O's can afford Manny?  Just look at next years payroll:

1) Davis 23m - 1B

2) Manny  20m - 3B  10/300m with a 5 year opt out

3) Jones 17m - CF Extend for 3 years at 17 per

4) Tillman 17m  - SP1 - extend 3/51m plus a invest option

5)  Trumbo -12.5m -DH

6) O'Day 9m - RP1

7) Schoop 8m - 2B

8) Hardy 7m - SS - Let go FA and resign 1/7m

9) Gausman 6m - SP2

10) Brach 5m - RP2 extend  3/21

11) Flaherty  2m - UIF resign

12) Gentry 2m -OF resign

13) Nuno 2m - RP3 

14) Bundy 1.8m - SP3

15) Joseph 1m -BC

16) Rickard .5m - LF

17) Givens .5m - RP4

18) Hart .5m - RP5

19) Ynoa .5m - SP4

20) Sisco .5m - C

21) Aquino .5m  - SP5

22) Wilson .5m - RP6

23) Liranzo .5m - RP7

24) Mullins .5m - OF

25) Mancini .5m -RF

 2018 Payroll 138.3M

Miley buyout .5m

Total 2018 Payroll 138.8M

 

138m gives the O's about 20m to cover any holes that occur.  And when Manny's salary goes to 30m there is still room with the way Dan works a roster.   I am not worried about the window.  It seems to me that the O's can afford Manny.  And if that is true with Gausman and Bundy stepping up there is no reason should not be able to continue there winning ways. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Impressive amount of work.

I will counter with the core is aging and the minors are barren.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Impressive amount of work.

I will counter with the core is aging and the minors are barren.

So you don't believe in Harvey, Sedlock and Akin?  Mullins moving Jones to a corner outfield spot in the future?  Sisco becoming aa frontline catcher? Mancini become a major league hitter? Liranzo becoming an impact reliever?

[Frobby]

There's a lot of ifs in your scenario, but now that the 2017 season has barely started I'm not in the mood right now to debate every nuance of what might happen next year or the year after.   There will be plenty of time for that.   Much depends on Gausman and Bundy, and their first outings this year certainly were encouraging.    

For now I'll just pick one small nit that jumped out at me -- are you really penciling in Cedric Mullins for 2018?     You're talking about a guy who hasn't played above Delmarva yet.    If he holds his own at Bowie this year, I'll be pleasantly surprised, much less doing enough to warrant a spot on next year's Opening Day roster.    I won't say it's impossible, but it's a stretch to expect that.   

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There's a lot of ifs in your scenario, but now that the 2017 season has barely started I'm not in the mood right now to debate every nuance of what might happen next year or the year after.   There will be plenty of time for that.   Much depends on Gausman and Bundy, and their first outings this year certainly were encouraging.    

For now I'll just pick one small nit that jumped out at me -- are you really penciling in Cedric Mullins for 2018?     You're talking about a guy who hasn't played above Delmarva yet.    If he holds his own at Bowie this year, I'll be pleasantly surprised, much less doing enough to warrant a spot on next year's Opening Day roster.    I won't say it's impossible, but it's a stretch to expect that.   

I am penciling Mullins in as the 5th OFer.  He will be at AA this year which as Buck says is a phone call away.  If questioning the 5th OFer is the biggest thing that pops out at you I am pretty happy with the post.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

I am pencilling Mullins in as the 5th OFer.  He will be at AA this year which as Buck says is a phone call away.  If questioning the 5th OFer is the biggest thing that pops out at you I am pretty happy with the post.

It's not the biggest thing, it was just something that struck me as highly improbable.    As I said, I'm just not in the mood to debate all the things in your post right now, because I'm more focused on the season that just started.     I do appreciate the work and thought that went into your post.   

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you don't believe in Harvey, Sedlock and Akin?  Mullins moving Jones to a corner outfield spot in the future?  Sisco becoming aa frontline catcher? Mancini become a major league hitter? Liranzo becoming an impact reliever?

I'll believe in one of Harvey, Sedlock and Akin.  I won't believe in all three.

I'm not convinced Mullins can be an everyday Center Fielder in the majors, nor am I convinced that they would move Jones to CO.

I'm sold on Sisco's bat but I'm not sure how much value he is going to give back with his glove.

I'm certainly not sold that Mancini has the bat to be a value add at first or DH, which he can't play for three more years anyway.  I certainly don't believe in his glove in right field.

I don't have much faith in ML relievers, you certainly can't expect me to believe in a  guy in the minors.

[Can_of_corn]

You know what I do believe?  That for every guy you mentioned the Red Sox, Yanks, Blue Jays and Rays have better guys in their system.

[backwardsk]

I have always felt that they can compete with both Davis and Machado taking up 50-55M.  The key is to find 6-7 contributors that are pre arbitration.  If Mancini can turn into an everyday RF, that will be a huge win.  

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There's a lot of ifs in your scenario, but now that the 2017 season has barely started I'm not in the mood right now to debate every nuance of what might happen next year or the year after.   There will be plenty of time for that.   Much depends on Gausman and Bundy, and their first outings this year certainly were encouraging.    

For now I'll just pick one small nit that jumped out at me -- are you really penciling in Cedric Mullins for 2018?     You're talking about a guy who hasn't played above Delmarva yet.    If he holds his own at Bowie this year, I'll be pleasantly surprised, much less doing enough to warrant a spot on next year's Opening Day roster.    I won't say it's impossible, but it's a stretch to expect that.   

I am not  asking you to comment an further if you don't want to but the window is a big issue that hangs over the O's future.  It has been much talked about.   I think its appropriate to address it when a scenario can be made that it is not really an issue.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know what I do believe?  That for every guy you mentioned the Red Sox, Yanks, Blue Jays and Rays have better guys in their system.

Better than Manny?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Better than Manny?

Manny is in our farm system?

You rattled off prospects and I replied that the competition has better quality/depth in the farm.

And your counter is Manny?

The Blue Jays have a third baseman that is arguably better than Manny.  The Red Sox have some very fine young players. 

Pretty sure Manny isn't going to be putting up a 15 win season, which might be what the team needs going forward.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Manny is in our farm system?

You rattled off prospects and I replied that the competition has better quality/depth in the farm.

And your counter is Manny?

The Blue Jays have a third baseman that is arguably better than Manny.  The Red Sox have some very fine young players. 

Pretty sure Manny isn't going to be putting up a 15 win season, which might be what the team needs going forward.

I am not saying the Red Sox don't have a good team and a good farm system.   The Jays are very competitive with the O's. The Yanks have a long way to go but are building.  All this post in meant to do is say that the window that is much talked about is something the O's can deal with.   With key moves that we can all discuss that O's have a path forward to be a competitive team past 2018.  

If you have great insight into the other teams go ahead and add it to the discussion.

[backwardsk]

Slight nitpick, but Schoop at $8M seems high after making 3.7 this year.

And by the way, our window closed after 2015.  ?

[ChuckS]

I agree with most of the post. 

I do think at some point the team needs to trade some of its assets in areas of strength for areas of weakness.  I'm talking about the bullpen and the logjam at 1B/DH.  

I think Bundy and Gausman developing into true TOR pitchers can extend the window or perceived window into the foreseeable future.  We have some promising young starters in the lower minors that could be ready to step in as soon as 2019.  I am more worried about the positional talent (left side of the infield and the outfield).  

We need to resign Manny.  I don't think paying Britton what he's worth is going to be worth it to us considering out bullpen depth and the rising costs of top shelf closers.  Those are going to be the two biggest decisions over the next two years.