It's July 2- Internationale!

[Coker]

21 minutes ago, weams said:

Despite the fact that some folks think the Orioles Re-MASN raked in enormous profits, The amount of payroll that has been expended is in line with a large market team, not a small one as is actually the case.The Ownership and management can be criticized rightly for any of these issues if the pot of gold actually exists. My razor says that they have spent what was there. Possibly in the wrong places. No one doubts that the Angleos family and Dan Duquette can be criticized for many reasons. Jon Shepherd remarked that despite Andy MacPhail, the OS were close to Sano. I purport they may not have been. Though they should have. 

MacPhail claimed numerous times that the Orioles were interested in Sano. Per Jonah Keri, the O's had offered Sano $2.5M. The Twins had offered him 3.15M (which is what he ended up signing for) and the rumor has been for years that the O's were offered the chance to match the offer but declined. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Coker said:

MacPhail claimed numerous times that the Orioles were interested in Sano. Per Jonah Keri, the O's had offered Sano $2.5M. The Twins had offered him 3.15M (which is what he ended up signing for) and the rumor has been for years that the O's were offered the chance to match the offer but declined. 

 

That's fine, he's only been worth 4.8 rWAR so far and he's already 24 years old, practically over the hill.

Can't expect to spend with powerhouses like the Twins.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Coker said:

MacPhail claimed numerous times that the Orioles were interested in Sano. Per Jonah Keri, the O's had offered Sano $2.5M. The Twins had offered him 3.15M (which is what he ended up signing for) and the rumor has been for years that the O's were offered the chance to match the offer but declined. 

 

It has also been reported that the Orioles backed off of their high offer.  I'll never know. And Jon obviously has good info.  I think Sano was off the table for the Orioles by the time the deal was done with the Twins. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's fine, he's only been worth 4.8 rWAR so far and he's already 24 years old, practically over the hill.

Can't expect to spend with powerhouses like the Twins.

He would have been a good hit for the Os. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

He would have been a good hit for the Os. 

But on the bright side, if he was on the team Schoop wouldn't be going to the ASG.

[Luke-OH]

37 minutes ago, weams said:

Despite the fact that some folks think the Orioles Re-MASN raked in enormous profits, The amount of payroll that has been expended is in line with a large market team, not a small one as is actually the case.The Ownership and management can be criticized rightly for any of these issues if the pot of gold actually exists. My razor says that they have spent what was there. Possibly in the wrong places. No one doubts that the Angleos family and Dan Duquette can be criticized for many reasons. Jon Shepherd remarked that despite Andy MacPhail, the OS were close to Sano. I purport they may not have been. Though they should have. 

I'm glad the O's have spent money on a winning product, I just wonder if the approach is sustainable.  I'd like to see a more strategic approach to spending.  Without knowing what the O's books look like, it's hard to imagine we can afford to both fill holes through free agency, and hang onto our top players through extensions.  We need a strong pipeline of talent, so either we need to do concerted reloads every once in a while by trading valuable major league assets or we need to pursue every avenue possible to find amateur talent.

[24fps]

6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I'm glad the O's have spent money on a winning product, I just wonder if the approach is sustainable.  I'd like to see a more strategic approach to spending.  Without knowing what the O's books look like, it's hard to imagine we can afford to both fill holes through free agency, and hang onto our top players through extensions.  We need a strong pipeline of talent, so either we need to do concerted reloads every once in a while by trading valuable major league assets or we need to pursue every avenue possible to find amateur talent.

All good points. i would start with a critical look at the process that led to resigning Chris Davis and work from there.

[Coker]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably low $ guys that signed well after the initial rush.

Probably. Was going to dig into it but realized it wasn't worth the effort 

Though I will say this - six of the 10 players the O's signed July 2 2015 are on the roster. Didn't wait on those guys! 

Other than that, Cesar Agamos (who signed the '16-'17 year) signed for $150k. Miguel Gonzalez got 400k per the Baltimore media, but BA reported it as $100k back in the 2014-15 signing year. Richard Barcenas got $100k as well.

That's all I got. 

[spiritof66]

6 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I am trying to understand why one believes it is okay for AM to research the international market, share the results with PA and create a small, perhaps effective presence internationally, but that DD is not held to the same standard.  Apparently, AM has gone to his new owner and explained the righteousness of international spending in today's market to that guy, and we are to believe that guy is more reasonable and understanding of the benefits of international spending than PA when reviewing the same analysis?  

Is it really that difficult to commission a new study and take those results to PA and show him the benefits of international spending?  Are we to believe that DD has furnished all of the appropriate information to our owner and that it is PA who has acknowledged all of the benefits of spending internationally but has decided to pass?

What upsets me the most is that DD found $ for FredF to go sign Reyes and Peralta but that we seem to have retreated since then.

The answer to your first question, for me, is yes. Absolutely, yes. I don't know anything about the dynamic between either MacPhail and the Phillies' principal owner, John Middleton, or the Orioles' principal owner and Duquette. I do know a little bit about Middleton, who has been in charge of the Phillies for just a couple of years. He is an intelligent, thoughtful guy who listens and learns about what is going on in today's game (including modern analytics), and doesn't appear to think he knows more than the experts he hires. I am strongly of the view that the opposite is true about the Orioles' principal owner. 

Trying to be fair about a subject I feel passionately about, I also recognize that the Phillies' market is much larger than the Orioles', that their revenue potential is much higher, and that their 2017 MLB payroll is much lower than the Orioles'. The Phillies have money to spend that the Orioles don't have. That is largely the product of the Orioles' own short-sighted decisions, but not entirely.

I don't know the answer to the second question. Maybe an intrepid member of the sports media will ask what, if anything, the Orioles have done to assess the value of international signings and the wisdom of their virtual absence from that talent market. Without hard information, I find these possibilities most likely: (1) the Orioles front office has been told not to waste any time or money on such studies, (2) there has been such a study or studies, urging the expansion of international activity, and it or they have not been acted on for reasons I (and others) have speculated about in prior posts.

I find it hard to believe that Duquette or his staff prepared or approved a report recommending against increased participation -- except maybe in the context of a stated goal that winning a championship in the next few years is the only goal against which international expenditures should be measured.

 

[spiritof66]

I invite you take 30 seconds or so to review this list of international signings (from the public portion of the Baseball America website). 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-team-team-international-signing-trackers/#3tPqtxo1y1FPZeho.97

It's pretty obvious that one team is an outlier in its approach, or lack of an approach, to signing international free agents. Sometimes it's an outlier that has a better idea than the herd about how to build a successful team -- I think Michael Lewis wrote a book about that. But it's pretty hard, when you look at where major league talent is coming from, to avoid the conclusion that in this instance the outlier team is putting itself at a significant competitive disadvantage by not exploiting this market for player talent. 

One further thought about the Orioles and Latin American talent. Today, the team may view the cost of participating effectively in this market as requiring far more than the price of signings. Other teams are many years, even decades, ahead of the Orioles in building an infrastructure of scouts, instructors and facilities, especially in the Dominican Republic. They have invested many millions of dollars to optimize the value of their signings. Here's a recent example: https://www.truebluela.com/2017/1/31/14464684/dodgers-dominican-republic-renovation-campo-las-palmas

It appears to me that the Orioles made a decision, probably in the late 1990s, not to make a major investment in that market -- possibly because they thought their approach to building a successful team was working pretty well, and have stubbornly adhered to that position even after the team's performance collapsed and the minor league organization sputtered. It may be that the Orioles have determined that the cost of trying to catch up to the rest of MLB would be many millions of dollars, and that those millions are better spent on the major league payroll since the team's goal is to try to get to the World Series in the near term, rather than build a competitive franchise for the long term. Having made that decision, the Orioles may have concluded that it doesn't make sense to spend even small amounts to sign international players without having the resources to scout and develop them adequately.

 

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

It appears to me that the Orioles made a decision, probably in the late 1990s, not to make a major investment in that market -- possibly because they thought their approach to building a successful team was working pretty well, and have stubbornly adhered to that position even after the team's performance collapsed and the minor league organization sputtered. It may be that the Orioles have determined that the cost of trying to catch up to the rest of MLB would be many millions of dollars, and that those millions are better spent on the major league payroll since the team's goal is to try to get to the World Series in the near term, rather than build a competitive franchise for the long term. Having made that decision, the Orioles may have concluded that it doesn't make sense to spend even small amounts to sign international players without having the resources to scout and develop them adequately.

 

The Os have been behind internationally for a long time.  Franagan and Duquette tried to move the ball, but it was AM who studied the market, developed a plan and suddenly, without significant spending, we had some real prospects internationally.  DD was supposed to move all of this forward, but has failed in stunning fashion - putting out good $ for Reyes and Peralta and similar $ for mediocre Cuban prospects.  AM was in on Chen, but it was DD who signed him.  DD also spent $8.5M on Wada who never played for us.  

The idea that our FO may have decided to punt internationally in order to invest more in the major league franchise is just so spectacularly stupid if true.  These international prospects don't just have value as MLB players if they get there, they may have value as prospects - like EdRod did - even if they fail to get to the majors.  If DD had invested appropriately internationally in 2012 and 2013, we would probably already have guys with legit prospect value if not a guy in majors.  

Jonathan Schoop, our lone internally developed international player on our 25 man roster, generated 1.9 WAR last year against his salary above $500k.  This year, Schoop may generate 4 WAR in production at a salary of $3M.  The value generated by Schoop alone would justify multiple years of scouting infrastructure (facilities, coaches, scouts) and signing bonuses. 

Since his trade, Eduardo Rodriguez has generated 4.3WAR for the BoSox against a cost of a little more than $1M.  Between these two guys, that's 10 WAR for under $5M!

Is there any doubt that, had AM stayed on, that his methods would have generated two more MLB caliber talents by now?

It is so short-sighted that anyone could come to the conclusion that our overall organizational talent and MLB competitiveness is best served by using funds on the MLB roster instead of internationally.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't consider international free agents as part of this.  These are all established professionals that are not governed by the pool. 

[hoosiers]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't consider international free agents as part of this.  These are all established professionals that are not governed by the pool. 

I can see where you are coming from, but I believe it is relevant in terms of $ allocated and spent within our organizational budget.

[spiritof66]

12 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

The Os have been behind internationally for a long time.  Franagan and Duquette tried to move the ball, but it was AM who studied the market, developed a plan and suddenly, without significant spending, we had some real prospects internationally.  DD was supposed to move all of this forward, but has failed in stunning fashion - putting out good $ for Reyes and Peralta and similar $ for mediocre Cuban prospects.  AM was in on Chen, but it was DD who signed him.  DD also spent $8.5M on Wada who never played for us.  

The idea that our FO may have decided to punt internationally in order to invest more in the major league franchise is just so spectacularly stupid if true.  These international prospects don't just have value as MLB players if they get there, they may have value as prospects - like EdRod did - even if they fail to get to the majors.  If DD had invested appropriately internationally in 2012 and 2013, we would probably already have guys with legit prospect value if not a guy in majors.  

Jonathan Schoop, our lone internally developed international player on our 25 man roster, generated 1.9 WAR last year against his salary above $500k.  This year, Schoop may generate 4 WAR in production at a salary of $3M.  The value generated by Schoop alone would justify multiple years of scouting infrastructure (facilities, coaches, scouts) and signing bonuses. 

Since his trade, Eduardo Rodriguez has generated 4.3WAR for the BoSox against a cost of a little more than $1M.  Between these two guys, that's 10 WAR for under $5M!

Is there any doubt that, had AM stayed on, that his methods would have generated two more MLB caliber talents by now?

It is so short-sighted that anyone could come to the conclusion that our overall organizational talent and MLB competitiveness is best served by using funds on the MLB roster instead of internationally.

I don't know who decides what, among the Orioles' ownership, Duquette and others in that role, and others in the front office. But I find it hard to believe that Duquette or his predecessors (or others in the front office) -- all of whom have been, if flawed and subject to criticism, reasonably smart (at least), experienced baseball people who have followed what other teams have been doing and have seen the role Latin American signees have played -- decided not to try to improve the Orioles by pursuing aggressively, if maybe a bit on the cheap, the young talent that's there.

On the other hand, it's easy for me to believe that the owner of the team has dictated a decision that is "so spectacularly stupid" and ignorant of how the game has changed over the past 20 years.

[hoosiers]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I don't know who decides what, among the Orioles' ownership, Duquette and others in that role, and others in the front office. But I find it hard to believe that Duquette or his predecessors (or others in the front office) -- all of whom have been, if flawed and subject to criticism, reasonably smart (at least), experienced baseball people who have followed what other teams have been doing and have seen the role Latin American signees have played -- decided not to try to improve the Orioles by pursuing aggressively, if maybe a bit on the cheap, the young talent that's there.

On the other hand, it's easy for me to believe that the owner of the team has dictated a decision that is "so spectacularly stupid" and ignorant of how the game has changed over the past 20 years.

I blame our FO either way.  Either these decisions are made by our FO or our FO has failed to convince our owner of an essential talent acquisition pipeline.  I mean, AM convinced PA to go in one direction and spend something to create some infrastructure to scout and sign prospects - and it was working.  The funds were there when AM was GM.  The funds were there for Reyes and Peralta and the $ wasted on the Cubans (Miranda, Leyva, Urrutia, Alvarez - $700k-$800k each).  You can't deny that DD had the time AND funds in the early years to develop something internationally.  DD won't spend his slot $, but will go spend $3M on mediocre Cubans?  You blame the owner for this?  I don't know how one can reach any other conclusion that DD has failed in spectacular fashion to implement a successful international operation - especially considering the upward trajectory of what he inherited.

To me the major question is - have we completely re-trenched from where we were when AM left and in DD's early years?  Because we were never major players and I can get over not spending on the top 40 guys, but to re-trench from where we were would be so disheartening.