Heyman: Dodgers interested in Britton

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224

Buehler is 19, Verdugo is 27 and Alvarez is 28.

We'd get one of those guys + someone like Heredia.  Maybe another C+ prospect thrown in. 

That would be for two months of Britton. Compared to Chapman they are getting an extra season. 

Im saying your wrong based on that

 

[ISU94]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I still think Alvarez, Calhoun, Buehler, Hetedia and White is a fair package for 1year and two months of Britton. It's quite a bit more than the Chapman deal but your getting a whole extra season and he isn't a rental.

its a big price but the Os don't need to trade him. The Dodgers have a real shot at the series.

i would trade out Calhoun to get the deal done and probably ask for Diaz instead. 

If Britton shows to be healthy he is worth a ton. 

The Orioles really do need to trade him though. The price we get back just gets lesser and lesser the less control he has. We aren't locking him up long term, and we are on our way into a much needed rebuild. Keeping Britton doesn't make any sense.

Do we technically HAVE to trade him? Of course not. Don't trade him for whatever package a team offers. But if we get a top 30 prospect, another top 100 prospect, a high upside guy like Heredia, and maybe another decent prospect? That's pretty damn hard to pass up and would do wonders for our farm.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, ISU94 said:

The Orioles really do need to trade him though. The price we get back just gets lesser and lesser the less control he has. We aren't locking him up long term, and we are on our way into a much needed rebuild. Keeping Britton doesn't make any sense.

Do we technically HAVE to trade him? Of course not. Don't trade him for whatever package a team offers. But if we get a top 30 prospect, another top 100 prospect, a high upside guy like Heredia, and maybe another decent prospect? That's pretty damn hard to pass up and would do wonders for our farm.

Based on Chapman we could get a top twenty plus 3 other guys for 2 months of Britton next year. No sense trading him now if you can't get considerably more 

[ISU94]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Based on Chapman we could get a top twenty plus 3 other guys for 2 months of Britton next year. No sense trading him now if you can't get considerably more 

Again though, they got Torres who is awesome but little else that are going to make much of an impact. A deal that I just posted would be quite a bit better than that. 

[ArtVanDelay]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That would be for two months of Britton. Compared to Chapman they are getting an extra season. 

Im saying your wrong based on that

 

Maybe we'd get Buehler, Calhoun, Heredia. 

Britton isn't as good as Chapman.  I agree that we'd get more because of the extra season but we wouldn't get more next year. 

[Il BuonO]

43 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Maybe we'd get Buehler, Calhoun, Heredia. 

Britton isn't as good as Chapman.  I agree that we'd get more because of the extra season but we wouldn't get more next year. 

No, he's better. The deal the Yankees got for Chapman should be the starting point in negotiations for Britton.

Chapman        rWAR       Britton

2014 1.9                            2.5

2015 2.7                            2.5

2016 2.5                            4.3

 

[25 Nuggets]

28 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

No, he's better. The deal the Yankees got for Chapman should be the starting point in negotiations for Britton.

Chapman        rWAR       Britton

2014 1.9                            2.5

2015 2.7                            2.5

2016 2.5                            4.3

 

2017 will probably be part of negotiations, but you're right, Chapman/Jansen will be a baseline.

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

No, he's better. The deal the Yankees got for Chapman should be the starting point in negotiations for Britton.

Chapman        rWAR       Britton

2014 1.9                            2.5

2015 2.7                            2.5

2016 2.5                            4.3

 

Since 2014:

Britton: 5.8 fWAR

Chapman: 9

Britton is great but he's not Chapman.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Since 2014:

Britton: 5.8 fWAR

Chapman: 9

Britton is great but he's not Chapman.

Depends if you like fWAR, which has a heavy preference for strikeouts vs. ground outs.    In that period:

Chapman 113 saves, 10 blown saves.

Britton 125 saves, 8 blown saves.

I'd argue that a closer's job is to preserve the lead, and Britton's done it better.     But we're splitting hairs here.    Their market value should be very close.    

[ArtVanDelay]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends if you like fWAR, which has a heavy preference for strikeouts vs. ground outs.    In that period:

Chapman 113 saves, 10 blown saves.

Britton 125 saves, 8 blown saves.

I'd argue that a closer's job is to preserve the lead, and Britton's done it better.     But we're splitting hairs here.    Their market value should be very close.    

A strikeout is a more favorable outcome than a ground ball.   Teams are going to pay more for a K guy vs a GB guy.

The extra year of control complicates things.  I don't think we'd receive a Chapman return if Britton was an upcoming free agent.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

A strikeout is a more favorable outcome than a ground ball.   Teams are going to pay more for a K guy vs a GB guy.

It's not as simple as that.   You have to consider what kind of contact Chapman allows when he doesn't get strikeouts, how many guys he walks, etc.    Britton has a better ERA and WHIP than Chapman over the 4 years.    I think a lot of GM's may prefer actual results over hypothetical ones.   

At the same time, you have to look at what Chapman was doing when he was traded.    He was in the middle of a healthy season and had been pitching right at his peak level all season.     By comparison, Britton's missed about 2/3 of the season, and hasn't been at the absolute top of his game.    To me, that's the biggest reason he might not get as big a haul as we hope.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends if you like fWAR, which has a heavy preference for strikeouts vs. ground outs.    In that period:

Chapman 113 saves, 10 blown saves.

Britton 125 saves, 8 blown saves.

I'd argue that a closer's job is to preserve the lead, and Britton's done it better.     But we're splitting hairs here.    Their market value should be very close.    

Frobby , in your estimation is very close. What is the value of the extra season?

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Since 2014:

Britton: 5.8 fWAR

Chapman: 9

Britton is great but he's not Chapman.

Who cares about 2014-15? Britton is clearly better than Chapman the last two years. Plus, he does not come having been accused of domestic abuse. 

[ISU94]

1 minute ago, pastorfan said:

Who cares about 2014-15? Britton is clearly better than Chapman the last two years. Plus, he does not come having been accused of domestic abuse. 

He's coming off an injury and has barely pitched this year...you don't take that into account at all when talking about the last two years? Last year was great and all but...

[pastorfan]

Just now, ISU94 said:

He's coming off an injury and has barely pitched this year...you don't take that into account at all when talking about the last two years? Last year was great and all but...

I see what you are saying. I am speaking assuming he proves his health. In an almost perfect world we fleece the Dodgers for him and fleece the Nats for Brach!