Santander

[AceKing]

I’ll take him

[AceKing]

24 years old Rushed and uprooted....

Switch hitting with power the other way from both sides....

Tough out right now.

Edited July 24, 2019 by AceKing

[Hallas]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So if Davis goes 4 for 4 his next start that means more than last season? 

No, just no.  You have to look at the totality.

1: I don't think Chris Davis has gotten 4 hits in a game all season, so I wouldn't hold your breath. 2:  Your example is obviously taken to its most extreme, but I certainly would weigh the most 150-300 PAs more heavily than past experience.  There are plenty of stats that stabilize enough to give you an idea of current skill level.

47 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll agree that what someone has done in his last, say, 500 PAs is somewhat more important than the 500 preceding that, and the sum of those 1000 PAs are somewhat more important than the 1000 prior to that.

But 150?  That's pretty small.  And 60 or 70 in three weeks?  That's nothing.  OPS takes maybe 500 PAs to stabilize and be reliable.  Contact rate, K rate and line drive rate can be more reliable over samples as small as 150 PAs.

Santander has increased his exit velocity by almost 2 MPH, so that's something.  His K rate is down as well.  Statcast doesn't think he should be doing as well as he is, as his xWOBA is .313, vs his actual .353.

[BohKnowsBmore]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sold on Santander’s recent results, but I still have more hope for him than a guy like Dwight Smith Jr.    He’s had a pretty chaotic career since we took him in the Rule 5 draft, between his injuries and needing to be in the majors a certain period of time over two seasons.    So, I don’t assign his minor league stats quite the same significance that I would if he had been healthy and followed a traditional development path.    

I will say this (and feel free to cringe):  the guy looks like a ball player.    He’s a physical specimen, and I like his swing.    In any event, he’s done enough this year for long enough that he gets the chance to prove it’s not a fluke.    

Eh, we all tease about the exaggerated gaps in traditional scouting that are lampooned in media (e.g. Moneyball, etc.), but there is something to it still.  That's what projection is to some degree, right?  The raw stuff is there, it's possible that a few tweaks could unlock a plus player vs. a guy who may have better numbers but is obviously maxed out on his athletic ceiling.  I don't think what you're saying is necessarily cringe-worthy.  Now, if we start to dissect what the appearance of his GF says about his makeup as a ballplayer or whether he has a "good face," that's another matter.

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

This was Santander's 4th home run in his last 6 games.

 

 

(vs. DIAMONDBACKS, 7/24)

 

NUMBER 8

 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER 

ANTHONY ROGER SANTANDER

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Hallas said:

1: I don't think Chris Davis has gotten 4 hits in a game all season, so I wouldn't hold your breath. 2:  Your example is obviously taken to its most extreme, but I certainly would weigh the most 150-300 PAs more heavily than past experience.  There are plenty of stats that stabilize enough to give you an idea of current skill level.

Santander has increased his exit velocity by almost 2 MPH, so that's something.  His K rate is down as well.  Statcast doesn't think he should be doing as well as he is, as his xWOBA is .313, vs his actual .353.

1- Sure it is.

2- You would weight the most recent 150-300 PA more heavily than

1. 2017 in the majors
2. 2018 in the majors
3. 2018 in the minors
4. 2018 Winter ball
5. 2019 in the minors

You think the last 150 PA is a more likely indicator than all of the rest combined?  His OPS is more than 100 points higher than it was in AAA this year. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

What's the OH opinion on his play in CF to this point?  SSS I know, but he has seemed passable.

Not really meaningful at this point, but his UZR/150 for 2019:

• LF (113 innings): -29.4
• CF (46 innings): 0.00
• RF (174.1 innings): 28.3

The numbers have him as a plus OF in 2017 (59 innings), a wash in 2018 (231.2) and basically a wash in 2019 (331.1), consistent with the aggregate of the above.  Can't stress enough how small these samples are to be meaningful (and UZR is just one metric).

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- Sure it is.

2- You would weight the most recent 150-300 PA more heavily than

1. 2017 in the majors
2. 2018 in the majors
3. 2018 in the minors
4. 2018 Winter ball
5. 2019 in the minors

You think the last 150 PA is a more likely indicator than all of the rest combined?  His OPS is more than 100 points higher than it was in AAA this year. 

FWIW, that AAA performance was only in 209 PA.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sold on Santander’s recent results, but I still have more hope for him than a guy like Dwight Smith Jr.    He’s had a pretty chaotic career since we took him in the Rule 5 draft, between his injuries and needing to be in the majors a certain period of time over two seasons.    So, I don’t assign his minor league stats quite the same significance that I would if he had been healthy and followed a traditional development path.    

I will say this (and feel free to cringe):  the guy looks like a ball player.    He’s a physical specimen, and I like his swing.    In any event, he’s done enough this year for long enough that he gets the chance to prove it’s not a fluke.    

In A+ ball, he was pretty skinny but had a lot of power when I saw Lynchburg playing Frederick. He had a rocket arm and decent, but not great, reads and speed on fly balls.

He has certainly bulked up and looked about 25 pounds of muscle heavier when I saw him in Bowie 2 seasons ago during his rehab games.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

FWIW, that AAA performance was only in 209 PA.

Which is still more than his ML performance.

 

I'm not saying this can't be real, but it's too early to be making declarations.

[Hallas]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- Sure it is.

2- You would weight the most recent 150-300 PA more heavily than

1. 2017 in the majors
2. 2018 in the majors
3. 2018 in the minors
4. 2018 Winter ball
5. 2019 in the minors

You think the last 150 PA is a more likely indicator than all of the rest combined?  His OPS is more than 100 points higher than it was in AAA this year. 

I mean, yes, if he added 3 MPH to his exit velocity, increased his contact rate to 70%, and reduced his GB% by 10% over 150 PA, I would be very hopeful for the future.

[NCRaven]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is still more than his ML performance.

 

I'm not saying this can't be real, but it's too early to be making declarations.

You’ll only admit you were wrong when Santander is making his induction speech in Cooperstown in 2039! Maybe.  

[Luke-OH]

He looked like a sure thing to hit when I saw him in Bowie in 2017, but he struggled mightily to transition to the majors when he clearly wasn’t ready. The looseness was gone from the swing. The most surprising thing to me is not that he’s hitting, but that he’s improved his defense significantly. He was a fringe COF glove at best back then and he’s turned himself into someone who isn’t embarrassing in CF.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

You’ll only admit you were wrong when Santander is making his induction speech in Cooperstown in 2039! Maybe.  

What wrong?  I'm not saying he has no chance to be a productive player.  I'm saying the current sample size is too small to make a determination.

[El_Duderino]

This is the plan working though right? DD took him with the plan to carry then stash him. Him struggling at ML level early on shouldn’t have diminished his prospect status, which had always been projection based.