Prediction for The Last 40 Games

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

The core...plus three good starters.  

 

6 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

They are not going to make any major changes on offense as either they are guys that can not be traded because of contract or are producing enough for price.  The only move will be Smith gone and Santander and Hays playing.  The change will be in the 3 rotation spots.  

And we trust Duquette to get "3 good starters"?   Jiminez, Gallardo, Miley, Hellickson...gosh, I can hardly wait for the 3 good starters he finds this winter. 

[tntoriole]

Pitching is the key...and Dan has not done well for us in that department. 

This is the list of current pitchers with another organization for whom we now have exactly NOBODY in return who is still in our organization.  While I understand the merits of each move and that each have their proponents and detractors, OVERALL the net effect has been a draining exodus of pitchers who are either stars, regular contributors or soon to be...

Jake Arrieta- we know about him

Pedro Strop 5.0 WAR over 5 seasons in Cubs pen

Eduardo Rodriguez 4.6 WAR over 3 seasons with Sox. 

Steven Brault  This season, Brault, 25, leads the International League in ERA (2.06) and is third in opponents’ batting average (.214), fourth in WHIP (1.13), sixth in strikeouts (95), seventh in wins (eight) and eighth in innings pitched (100⅓).

Stephen Tarpley- Having been developed as a starter for the better part of his career, the Yankees have used Tarpley and his extensive repertoire of pitches out of the bullpen in 2017, and he has been the best reliever in the system this season.  In 14 games this season for High-A Tampa, the hard throwing lefty has tossed 30 shutout innings and has yielded just eight hits and struck-out 36 batters while holding the opposition to a microscopic .082 batting average.

Josh Hader- 1.3 WAR this year with 0.71 in Brewers pen. 

Zach Davies- 14-6 with Brewers this year, 1.7 WAR

Miggy Gonzalez- gave up on for no return 0.9 WAR 

Parker Bridwell.. gave up on...7-1 2.88 ERA with Angels 

The domino effects of DDs decision not to resign Nick Markakis, then trade for Travis Snider, then having to replace that disaster with the trade for Parra are now bad for us in costing us Brault, Tarpley, Davies.  

Water under the bridge now, but all of this has to be strongly considered in whether to continue with Duquette as GM after this season or next.  

[OriolesMagic83]

20 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Pitching is the key...and Dan has not done well for us in that department. 

This is the list of current pitchers with another organization for whom we now have exactly NOBODY in return who is still in our organization.  While I understand the merits of each move and that each have their proponents and detractors, OVERALL the net effect has been a draining exodus of pitchers who are either stars, regular contributors or soon to be...

Jake Arrieta- we know about him

Pedro Strop 5.0 WAR over 5 seasons in Cubs pen

Eduardo Rodriguez 4.6 WAR over 3 seasons with Sox. 

Steven Brault  This season, Brault, 25, leads the International League in ERA (2.06) and is third in opponents’ batting average (.214), fourth in WHIP (1.13), sixth in strikeouts (95), seventh in wins (eight) and eighth in innings pitched (100⅓).

Stephen Tarpley- Having been developed as a starter for the better part of his career, the Yankees have used Tarpley and his extensive repertoire of pitches out of the bullpen in 2017, and he has been the best reliever in the system this season.  In 14 games this season for High-A Tampa, the hard throwing lefty has tossed 30 shutout innings and has yielded just eight hits and struck-out 36 batters while holding the opposition to a microscopic .082 batting average.

Josh Hader- 1.3 WAR this year with 0.71 in Brewers pen. 

Zach Davies- 14-6 with Brewers this year, 1.7 WAR

Miggy Gonzalez- gave up on for no return 0.9 WAR 

Parker Bridwell.. gave up on...7-1 2.88 ERA with Angels 

The domino effects of DDs decision not to resign Nick Markakis, then trade for Travis Snider, then having to replace that disaster with the trade for Parra are now bad for us in costing us Brault, Tarpley, Davies.  

Water under the bridge now, but all of this has to be strongly considered in whether to continue with Duquette as GM after this season or next.  

All of them were given up for marginal upgrades other that Ed Rod.  At least trading Ed Rod made sense because the O's seemed to have a genuine chance to get to the World Series that year. 

[tntoriole]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

All of them were given up for marginal upgrades other that Ed Rod.  At least trading Ed Rod made sense because the O's seemed to have a genuine chance to get to the World Series that year. 

Even if individual ones made sense at the time, (and some certainly did) there has to be some realization that a GM cannot just constantly go to this limited well and send away pitching prospects and then two or three years later wonder why we have one of the worst pitching starting rotations in baseball and how that fact alone has kept us out of the World Series over the last five years.   

GMs are not just responsible for whether an individual choice makes sense at the time.  They are also responsible for having  a plan for future successes. 

 

[brooksfrankjim]

My recollection is Buck hasn't had a losing record in September since he has been here. I think we get 25 wins. 

[24fps]

I'll go with 81-81 for the year as well.  The core will stay intact with JJ and SS gone and Santander making the team and Castillo returning.  

DD will spill a lot of digital ink talking about the importance of pitching and will end up signing another Davis/Trumbo type.  

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, 24fps said:

I'll go with 81-81 for the year as well.  The core will stay intact with JJ and SS gone and Santander making the team and Castillo returning.  

DD will spill a lot of digital ink talking about the importance of pitching and will end up signing another Davis/Trumbo type.  

Jay Bruce?

It would make no sense with the number of OF prospects the O's have, but it would fit the pattern.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

16 hours ago, Ripken said:

The core...plus three good starters.  

Tillman, Hellickson, and Colon.  They were all good at one point.