PECOTA 2018

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think replacement level starting pitchers are that easy to find.

[bobmc]

34 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it’s important to remember that even though the Orioles rotation is currently made up of “nobodies”, those pitchers are likely to outperform Miley, Ubaldo, and Tillman's 2017. Those 3 combined to produce worse than replacement level. 

On a similar but separate note, running Tillman out there every 5 days while the Orioles were trying to chase a wildcard spot is Buck’s worst mistake (surpassing even not putting Britton in that Wildcard game) IMO.

Perhaps but as Can alludes, it's a tough task.  I could easily see Cordes, Castro, Tillman, Wright, Ynoa, Mesa, Aquino, etc. producing equal or worse results, but at a lesser cost, of course.  And I tend to be pessimistic...  

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think replacement level starting pitchers are that easy to find.

 

1 hour ago, bobmc said:

Perhaps but as Can alludes, it's a tough task.  I could easily see Cordes, Castro, Tillman, Wright, Ynoa, Mesa, Aquino, etc. producing equal or worse results, but at a lesser cost, of course.  And I tend to be pessimistic...  

That would be a flaw in the setting of replacement level for both of the WAR metrics, which of course is possible. Replacement level by definition is the level of talent one can readily acquire for the MLB minimum salary.

The way I think about it is, if Tillman was a nobody would he have gotten 19 starts the way he was throwing the ball? I doubt he’d have gotten 3 or 4. The good thing about replacement type players is if one isn’t performing then on to the next one and don’t end up with 93 innings of gloried batting practice.

[bobmc]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

 

That would be a flaw in the setting of replacement level for both of the WAR metrics, which of course is possible. Replacement level by definition is the level of talent one can readily acquire for the MLB minimum salary.

The way I think about it is, if Tillman was a nobody would he have gotten 19 starts the way he was throwing the ball? I doubt he’d have gotten 3 or 4. The good thing about replacement type players is if one isn’t performing then on to the next one and don’t end up with 93 innings of gloried batting practice.

I'm with you in that I'd rather see the above and others pitch this year vice what we had.  But, I can still see them doing as poorly.  I agree that if one fails, then you can move on.  I'm hopeful, though, that they exceed last year's performance.  I like everything I hear and see about Cordes but as you say, we shall see how MLB hitters fare soon enough.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

 

That would be a flaw in the setting of replacement level for both of the WAR metrics, which of course is possible. Replacement level by definition is the level of talent one can readily acquire for the MLB minimum salary.

The way I think about it is, if Tillman was a nobody would he have gotten 19 starts the way he was throwing the ball? I doubt he’d have gotten 3 or 4. The good thing about replacement type players is if one isn’t performing then on to the next one and don’t end up with 93 innings of gloried batting practice.

Yes, I understand that.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think replacement level starting pitchers are that easy to find.

No. But improvement on what the Orioles have had appear to be everywhere.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, bobmc said:

I'm with you in that I'd rather see the above and others pitch this year vice what we had.  But, I can still see them doing as poorly.  I agree that if one fails, then you can move on.  I'm hopeful, though, that they exceed last year's performance.  I like everything I hear and see about Cordes but as you say, we shall see how MLB hitters fare soon enough.

Yeah, I agree they could do quite poorly. I’m optimistic about some of the options but I’d like to see one innings eater to stabilize things even if the O’s are not seriously going for it in 2018.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

 

That would be a flaw in the setting of replacement level for both of the WAR metrics, which of course is possible. Replacement level by definition is the level of talent one can readily acquire for the MLB minimum salary.

The concept of a replacement level player is something of a fiction.   Players’ performances vary a good bit from year to year, month to month, week to week, and teams make judgrments that player X will do better than player Y that turn out to be wrong fairly frequently.     There isn’t actually a stock of exactly equivalent players who are at the perfect border of AAA and the majors.     Sometimes  guys stick in the majors who are worse than guys stuck in the minors.   You can’t pick up guys with a high probability of producing at close to a 0.0 level.    They might turn out as +0.7 or -1.0.   There’s a ton of volatility out there.  

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

The concept of a replacement level player is something of a fiction.   Players’ performances vary a good bit from year to year, month to month, week to week, and teams make judgrments that player X will do better than player Y that turn out to be wrong fairly frequently.     There isn’t actually a stock of exactly equivalent players who are at the perfect border of AAA and the majors.     Sometimes  guys stick in the majors who are worse than guys stuck in the minors.   You can’t pick up guys with a high probability of producing at close to a 0.0 level.    They might turn out as +0.7 or -1.0.   There’s a ton of volatility out there.  

I agree that a replacement level player is more a concept than a tangible object. 

[osfan83]

So how hard is it to find pitchers that can post better than a 6 ERA? How many starters last year in MLB had a better than 6 ERA in at least 100 innings of work? 

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

So how hard is it to find pitchers that can post better than a 6 ERA? How many starters last year in MLB had a better than 6 ERA in at least 100 innings of work? 

127

If you drop the threshold to 80 Innings it's 155.

[osfan83]

15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

127

If you drop the threshold to 80 Innings it's 155.

So law of averages tells us we should be able to have 4 starters in the rotation with a better than 6 ERA.......It would be hard to have a staff ERA worse than last year. maybe not impossible, but I'd be willing to bet without signing another pitcher our ERA will be better in 2018. 

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

So law of averages tells us we should be able to have 4 starters in the rotation with a better than 6 ERA.......It would be hard to have a staff ERA worse than last year. maybe not impossible, but I'd be willing to bet without signing another pitcher our ERA will be better in 2018. 

Only 7 pitchers threw 100+ innings of 6+ ERA ball.

Only 12 pitchers threw 80+ innings of 6+ ERA ball.

Only 1 pitcher threw 100+ innings of 6.50+ ERA ball (Ubaldo).

Only 1 pitcher threw 80+ innings of 7+ ERA ball (Tillman).

The issue with the Orioles rotation was lack of talent, but even more so the refusal to stop chasing after sunk costs.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

127

If you drop the threshold to 80 Innings it's 155.

Good answer. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

 

The issue with the Orioles rotation was lack of talent, but even more so the refusal to stop chasing after sunk costs.

 

One of the curses of running a small market, big budget team.