Tillman back. Are we happy?

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, they realized it was off and it was a problem and Buck still kept running him out there. I'm pretty sure there were some public comments about it. It was visibly noticeable, plus you could look at release point data which backs it up.

I remember looking at it last year in combination with side by side video comparisons of the previous year and it was alarming how much different he looked.

[Morgan423]

I'm good with this.  Tillman had to have pitching hurt most of last season.  If he's healthy, he's a steal next year... $3m for 1 year of a solid #4 or #5 is great.

[nadecir]

Sure $3 million is not a lot of money in today's Major Leagues.

But are there much better uses for $3 million that went to Chris Tillman for one year?  How about spending it for some young players in the international market?  How about using that $3 million and save it in order to apply it later to locking up some pre-arbitration players?

If you are going to give Chris Tillman a one-year guaranteed major league deal, at least get an attractive team option for him in 2019.  If the Orioles win the lottery and somehow Chris Tillman is successful this season, get the option to have him around inexpensively for another year.

Sometimes, the lack of foresight by the Orioles is mind-boggling.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

I'm good with this.  Tillman had to have pitching hurt most of last season.  If he's healthy, he's a steal next year... $3m for 1 year of a solid #4 or #5 is great.

If he pitches well he is going to get much more than 3 million.  And his only other offers were minor league deals.  Whomever negotiated this deal for the Orioles did a bad job. 

[esmd]

Eh, $3M isn't much in retrospect, but I'm glad it's not my $3M, especially if they have they have to DFA him and eat it.

The real key is, they'd better not be calling it good on the rotation.  They still need another legit pitcher.

[Morgan423]

Just now, cimota said:

If he pitches well he is going to get much more than 3 million.  And his only other offers were minor league deals.  Whomever negotiated this deal for the Orioles did a bad job. 

Whoops... didn't see the incentive portions.  Be interesting to see the final results... initial reports I'm seeing are that incentives are based on innings pitched.  Hopefully that means that if he's still where he was last year, we're not going to entertain the notion of putting him out there anywhere near as much.

[esmd]

My guess is to hit those incentives he's need to have a 2016 type season (pre-injury).

[LC_O's_87]

1 minute ago, cimota said:

If he pitches well he is going to get much more than 3 million.  And his only other offers were minor league deals.  Whomever negotiated this deal for the Orioles did a bad job. 

(1) You don't know what the incentives are; (2) You want him to hit the incentives b/c in all likelihood he has pitched well above the value of his contract  if he reaches them and (3) They essentially made an offer that was 1 level above a minor league deal with very little risk to them.

At the beginning of the offseason, I said I'd be disappointed if they offered him anything other than a minor league deal...and I guess I am a bit disappointed.  But, $3 million for  starting pitcher is so minimal that it almost doesn't matter.  The bigger issue is having him locked onto the 25 man roster all season but perhaps he exceeds expectations. 

My only expectation for him is to not have to be removed from the rotation and hid in the bullpen.  If he can do that, I'll consider it a successful signing.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

This is the most expensive lottery ticket ever.

[Three Run Homer]

I would have been firmly against this deal had it been announced in December or January.  Chris' performance last year was historically bad, and very few pitchers who have pitched that badly in a single season have ever come back to be good pitchers the next season, as I have posted elsewhere.  I was always fine with giving him a minor league contract, but I didn't like the idea of giving him guaranteed major league money and a guaranteed rotation slot sight unseen.

I am somewhat more favorable about the deal being announced today, because the O's have had a chance to look at Tillman up close for a few weeks.  Presumably they like what they see and are willing to commit to a rotation slot for him.  There is still plenty of downside risk here, though--not just the $3 million but the fact that he will likely get at least 10 starts in the regular season even if he continues to be terrible, and the fact that the team will now check off the 4th or 5th starter box and not pursue more reliable/more expensive alternatives for that slot.  

[Number5]

39 minutes ago, cimota said:

He had a historically bad year.  I wouldn't have any issue with the deal except that we know that Angelos isn't going to let the team eat 3 million. Most likely he performs poorly again and we trade a competitive balance pick like we did with Matusz and Webb to someone like the Dodgers who have money to burn and then they release him. 

I don't agree.  If he performs poorly, I believe that both DD and Angelos would be inclined to DFA him to avoid paying up to $7 million more in incentives based on innings pitched.  Buck is loyal and may be inclined to keep putting Chris out there even if he's getting rocked, but I really think the incentive clauses would push DD into cutting him.

[esmd]

Yeah I don't see $3M being an obstacle.  $12M that Jimenez was getting - yes.  But not $3M.

[wildbillhiccup]

54 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But it isn't just one bad season, it;s been since his shoulder started to hurt. Here's his stats since June 22nd of last year:

Starts: 35
Innings: 180.1
H: 213
HRA: 33
BB: 86
K: 121
ERA: 6.26
Batters Slash: .297/.377/.513/.890

His velocity is down and his command was not good last year and hasn't been good since early June 2016.

Now three million is chump change for baseball teams, but I would have preferred to see him in on a minor league deal. I really worry he will be given a spot over Cortes only to watch him crash and burn this April and May before the Orioles finally pull the plug. 

I just don't trust Buck when it comes to his guys. He's a loyalty guy and will give Tillman every opportunity to win a spot regardless of what the stuff looks like this spring.

I don't have an issue with him coming back on a low risk deal, but I'd rather it had been a minor league deal. 

Personally, unless the off season of rest healed him up, I think the guy's shoulder is toast.

I hope i'm wrong though. A healthy Tillman would be a solid addition to the staff.

 

You hit the nail on the head, Tony. And no one (on the Orioles) has been able to give a straight answer to whether or not he's "fixed" or healthy. In fact, Buck's general demeanor, when asked about Tillman at FanFest was that they were moving on. Now in the 11th hour when they only have three projected starters in camp he's suddenly back on their radar. Seems like a signing of convenience to me. 

[esmd]

Consensus - we're happy as long as they sign another quality SP and relegate Tillman to competing for the 5th spot.

We are most definitely NOT happy if this is it and Tillman is penciled in as one of the top 4 starters.

[theobird]

As I stated a few days ago, I would have been shocked if Tillman did not come back. I will take him, and that contract really means that he either pitch's pretty well or they will cut him loose. Good enough for me. We will see how Tillman does, and I am pulling for him. He has never been a TOR starter, but if he can eat innings and pitch to a low 4's ERA I will be quite happy, and not particularly surprised.