Would be nice to have a ST that goes even somewhat right

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Joseph also caught the majority of games started by you-know-who, which doesn’t make it any easier.

One advantage to Tillman being back is baserunners rarely even try and run against him.

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

One advantage to Tillman being back is baserunners rarely even try and run against him.

Yes, definitely a strength I’m sure whoever is catching appreciates.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

One advantage to Tillman being back is baserunners rarely even try and run against him.

Didn't most of them just hit home runs or doubles anyway?

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Didn't most of them just hit home runs or doubles anyway?

The ones he walked didn't steal.

[Il BuonO]

23 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Didn't most of them just hit home runs or doubles anyway?

 

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The ones he walked didn't steal.

Y’all better get on board with Tilly! The Orioles’ fortunes rise and fall with him according to people in the know (I don’t claim to be one) on OH.

[Luke-OH]

Tony makes a good point, as long as only SB guys are steal that’s not a big issue. When everyone steals and the other team game plans on exploiting the catcher, then that’s a problem. 

You probably won’t know if that is happening until the season starts because I doubt teams are going to try and run wild in spring training. For example, of the 4 guys who have attempted steals against Sisco, they all have stolen 25+ bases in a season. The guys who have been successful are all guys with 35+ steal seasons. Mallex Smith who stole twice off him has stolen 84 in a season. These aren’t slow guys taking advantage of a catcher, at least not yet.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Tony makes a good point, as long as only SB guys are steal that’s not a big issue. When everyone steals and the other team game plans on exploiting the catcher, then that’s a problem. 

You probably won’t know if that is happening until the season starts because I doubt teams are going to try and run wild in spring training. For example, of the 4 guys who have attempted steals against Sisco, they all have stolen 25+ bases in a season. The guys who have been successful are all guys with 35+ steal seasons. Mallex Smith who stole twice off him has stolen 84 in a season. These aren’t slow guys taking advantage of a catcher, at least not yet.

I do wonder what it really means to not control the running game, though.    No team in the league allowed more than 153 attempts last year, which is less than one per game.    Houston allowed only 116 attempts even though runners succeeded 88% of the time.    So do we really think teams are going to go crazy running on Sisco?

Last year, Sisco started 89 games at C and runners attempted a steal 93 times, and he had a 23% CS rate.   An average catcher in that league starting 89 games would have allowed 78 attempts and a 31% CS rate.    So, Sisco allowed about 18 extra stolen bases and recorded 3 fewer CS than the average catcher in that league.    

I’m inclined to think that Sisco might lead the league in attempted steals per game and have a low CS%, but it’s not like it’s going to be some crazy circus where teams regularly attempt multiple steals per game off him.     

[interloper]

16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, Bundy average 92 on his fastball last year so his velocity is not down.

No, I know. I meant from pre-TJS. 

[interloper]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

One advantage to Tillman being back is baserunners rarely even try and run against him.

No need. Just wait for the meatball and hit the 3-run shot.

[OFFNY]

23 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

The Orioles won this afternoon's Spring Training game.

That could be a bad thing, if it instills a false sense of confidence for the team when they go north next month.

This team can't do ANYTHING right.

 

o

o

 

Everything went right for the Orioles today.

The offense scored 9 runs.

They got 3 scoreless innings from Mike Wright and Daren O'Day combined.

9 out of the 10 runs that they ceded to the opponent came from pitchers that may not make the Major League team this season (Klimek, Faulkner, and Ramirez), two of which are not even on the 40-man roster.

They lost the game even though they scored 9 runs, ensuring that they won't get big heads from having an 8-run lead when the games actually count.

 

o

[now]

To me the debate about CS% (Hoiles, Sisco) can easily be settled by modern metrics--that is, calculating total extra bases and their impact in runs and therefore wins, vs. offensive contributions in runs, wins. A catcher with a .900 OPS (Hoiles) has a lot of leeway in extra bases allowed. 

As for game calling, I wonder how we as fans or even those more intimately knowledgeable on the team can assess that as a skill, and whether and how it might be measurable. Otherwise we're left with hearsay (WC calls for FBs to discourage stealing) or stats like CERA--which by the way, is that considered a reliable stat these days, unlike in the past?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, now said:

To me the debate about CS% (Hoiles, Sisco) can easily be settled by modern metrics--that is, calculating total extra bases and their impact in runs and therefore wins, vs. offensive contributions in runs, wins. A catcher with a .900 OPS (Hoiles) has a lot of leeway in extra bases allowed. 

As for game calling, I wonder how we as fans or even those more intimately knowledgeable on the team can assess that as a skill, and whether and how it might be measurable. Otherwise we're left with hearsay (WC calls for FBs to discourage stealing) or stats like CERA--which by the way, is that considered a reliable stat these days, unlike in the past?

I don't give a lot of weight to CERA.  Data pool is too small and there seems like a lot of noise would be present.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, now said:

To me the debate about CS% (Hoiles, Sisco) can easily be settled by modern metrics--that is, calculating total extra bases and their impact in runs and therefore wins, vs. offensive contributions in runs, wins. A catcher with a .900 OPS (Hoiles) has a lot of leeway in extra bases allowed. 

As for game calling, I wonder how we as fans or even those more intimately knowledgeable on the team can assess that as a skill, and whether and how it might be measurable. Otherwise we're left with hearsay (WC calls for FBs to discourage stealing) or stats like CERA--which by the way, is that considered a reliable stat these days, unlike in the past?

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/

Here’s an article that dives into CERA, and to summarize extremely briefly, the conclusion was that with 3 years worth of data, the differences between catcher’s ERA could be explained about 50% but the catcher’s skill. One year of data means very very little. Now of the 50% of the difference explained by skill, I’d guess a significant portion of that is framing ability (which is quantifiable separately). 

[now]

47 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/

Here’s an article that dives into CERA, and to summarize extremely briefly, the conclusion was that with 3 years worth of data, the differences between catcher’s ERA could be explained about 50% but the catcher’s skill. One year of data means very very little. Now of the 50% of the difference explained by skill, I’d guess a significant portion of that is framing ability (which is quantifiable separately). 

Wow, great article, thx for sharing. A lot going on there... I'm left with the overall range between best and worst catchers, in this intangible category of CERA, being +/- 1.5 wins per season - with most, of course, falling in between, more or less neutral in effect. It seems we're still left with a gaggle of measures for catchers' defense: long-term CERA, pitch framing, blocking, CS%, and even (according to the article) good old veteranicity.

Bottom line, I guess? In Buck we trust. 

[pastorfan]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't give a lot of weight to CERA.  Data pool is too small and there seems like a lot of noise would be present.

Wasn't it the Twins who a year ago signed the catcher Castro largely based on such data? Be interesting to quantify what effect he had on their staff.