Trey Mancini: Role Player or Star?

[Luke-OH]

New article up.

[Redskins Rick]

Nice article.

My take on Trey, he has grown on me, always thought he could hit and he has shown that, and an ability to be able to play COF.

I think he will be a solid everyday player with decent power as he learns how to adjust to the pitchers adjusting to him.

[MDtransplant757]

I think both. Those tow things aren't mutually exclusive. 

[DrungoHazewood]

I concur, he'll probably continue to be an average regular, maybe average-plus.  He's going into his age 26 season, he's unlikely to have a great leap forward. 

How could he become a star?  It's limited.  He's almost certainly not going to become a plus fielder.  He's unlikely to see his plate discipline surge, incremental gains are more likely.  His value in 2017 was in part due to a .293 batting average.  He was a .306 hitter in the minors.

So for him to become a 4+ win player, I think he has to have a year where he's a +0 left fielder, and he'll have to hit at least .300/.350/.550.  Last year he hit .293/.338/.488, with a -5 in left.  Maybe he does that for a few years.  His Marcels is .288/.342/.498.

To me he looks a lot like Mark Trumbo.  But a 26-year-old Mark Trumbo making league minimum isn't a bad thing to have around.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I concur, he'll probably continue to be an average regular, maybe average-plus.  He's going into his age 26 season, he's unlikely to have a great leap forward. 

How could he become a star?  It's limited.  He's almost certainly not going to become a plus fielder.  He's unlikely to see his plate discipline surge, incremental gains are more likely.  His value in 2017 was in part due to a .293 batting average.  He was a .306 hitter in the minors.

So for him to become a 4+ win player, I think he has to have a year where he's a +0 left fielder, and he'll have to hit at least .300/.350/.550.  Last year he hit .293/.338/.488, with a -5 in left.  Maybe he does that for a few years.  His Marcels is .288/.342/.498.

To me he looks a lot like Mark Trumbo.  But a 26-year-old Mark Trumbo making league minimum isn't a bad thing to have around.

I didn't realize Trumbo had plate discipline and some of the best plate coverage I've seen in a long time. Not saying Mancini is without his faults, but uh, he's already a better pure hitter than Trumbo has ever been. 

[jamalshw]

I see a guy that'll be undervalued his whole career because he's a makeshift corner OF and primarily a 1B. His power isn't (and won't be) as prolific as the elites that profile at those positions, but he provides good pop, good ABs and good production. Ultimately, he's a solidly above-average Major League ballplayer with the potential for an occasional All-Star game or two depending if his best years match up with lighter years at the position he happens to be playing that given year.

To me, he's not going to be the best player on the team (or at least shouldn't on a team that's got a chance to win), but he could be one of the top handful.

[Frobby]

The article is very fair, and I agree Mancini’s most likely outcome is average regular, with some shot at being a bit above average.    I really don’t see him becoming a star, but I’m willing to be wrong!   In any event, for the next couple of years while he’s cheap, he’s a substantial asset.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Great article @Luke-OH

One thing I want to point out: You mentioned his ability to make am adjust for the long term, quickly, without looking foolish (his stance.)

He also has a great ability to adjust nearly instantly and recognize when he needs to (his pinch hit home run in the 9th, followed up by his walk off a few innings later after watching tape and knowing what adjustments he needed to make for those pitches.)

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, interloper said:

I didn't realize Trumbo had plate discipline and some of the best plate coverage I've seen in a long time. Not saying Mancini is without his faults, but uh, he's already a better pure hitter than Trumbo has ever been. 

I know we're in an era of historically high Ks and relatively low walks, but in what world is 33 walks in a full season and a 4.2:1 K:BB ratio good plate discipline?

Trumbo has a better K:BB ratio in his career than Mancini.  Even last year when Trumbo was miserable he walked in 6.9% of plate appearances compared to Mancini's 5.6%.

Right now Mancini's advantage over a younger Trumbo looks like it's just batting average.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

New article up.

I think he is more of a role player. I don't see him being a star. 

[Moose Milligan]

How many average regular players hit .290 + with 20 homers?  Granted, he'd have to do it again and in this offensive heavy environment there's probably more players than I'm aware of.  Sometimes my thinking reverts back to growing up in the early 90s when 20 homers was a big thing.

I think he can become an above average regular.  Not quite an all star but a really solid contributor for years to come.  Yes, he's headed into his age 26 season, but part of this is due to the fact that he played all 4 years at Notre Dame and, if I'm doing my math correctly, that he was a year older than most of the kids in his HS class.  But let's not pretend that he toiled in the minors for a long time, he progressed at a decent rate through the system and made his debut in 2016.  

At any rate, he was one of the few guys on the team last year that could give you a good at bat in a key situation.  He also seemed to be able to make adjustments (as the article points out) when pitchers adjust to him.  

Looking ahead for the next few years, I don't view Mancini as a problem, he's one of the solutions.  Granted, his defense isn't great and that might be able to get better but I'm envisioning a day where Davis is gone and Mancini is at 1st.  

 

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know we're in an era of historically high Ks and relatively low walks, but in what world is 33 walks in a full season and a 4.2:1 K:BB ratio good plate discipline?

Trumbo has a better K:BB ratio in his career than Mancini.  Even last year when Trumbo was miserable he walked in 6.9% of plate appearances compared to Mancini's 5.6%.

Right now Mancini's advantage over a younger Trumbo looks like it's just batting average.

Fair enough, but I still think Trey is more selective and when he gets a pitch to hit, he hits it. He can also take pitches outside the other way with ease, something Trumbo struggles with. He's got less holes than Trumbo. He hits everything hard. He doesn't give away ABs. 

[Ohfan67]

Excellent article. Very well done. Quick question: How variable are "dribble balls" from year to year? Is that really a hitter controlled thing? It's an interesting stat, but a quick search didn't yield any details about it. Curious if it varies widely from year to year for given hitters. Thanks. 

[NCRaven]

Very good read.  If Mancini is a solid regular over the next five years, that's a plus outcome for the Orioles.  You don't need 9 All Stars on the field to be an outstanding team.  But a couple of All Stars on the mound would be a big help!

[survivedc]

49 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Great article @Luke-OH

One thing I want to point out: You mentioned his ability to make am adjust for the long term, quickly, without looking foolish (his stance.)

He also has a great ability to adjust nearly instantly and recognize when he needs to (his pinch hit home run in the 9th, followed up by his walk off a few innings later after watching tape and knowing what adjustments he needed to make for those pitches.)

I remember he was interviewed post game and had some fantastic answers, way better than your average "we just didn't give up, picked up the guy before us..." etc. That sold me on him.