TT: Pitching staff just about complete

[Tony-OH]

With the addition of Alex Cobb, the sending back of Jose Mesa Jr. and the struggles of Miguel Castro this spring, it's starting to look like the Orioles pitching staff for opening day is just about set. The only question will be whether they carry 12 or 13 pitchers to start the year. 

With the Orioles and Cobb having decided he will start the year in the minors until he's ready to pitch in the majors, that will give one pitcher a reprieve for a bit. That's probably going to be Joely Rodriguez who has been impressive this spring.

Here's how I see the Opening Day pitch staff shaping up. I think they go with 12 pitchers.

Starters
1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Andrew Cashner
4. Chris Tillman
5. Mike Wright Jr.

Relievers
6. Brad Brach
7. Mychal Givens
8. Darren O'Day
9. Richard Bleier
10. Nestor Cortes Jr.
11. Pedro Araujo
12. Tanner Scott

(Edited after finding out Rodriguez does not have options) As good as Castro was last year, his struggles give them the opportunity to option him to Norfolk and try to work as a starter. Although I don't think he's a starter, it doesn't hurt to send him there and work in that role since I'm not convinced Tillman is a long term answer as the 5th starter this year.

Joely Rodriguez or maybe Josh Edgin would have probably made the team as the 12-pitcher, but neither have options and it's doubtful the Orioles will want to risk them through waivers when they can keep them safely stashed in AAA until needed. This would give Tanner Scott the edge for the temporary spot.

Once Cobb returns, and I would not be surprised if that's not be the second week of the season, Tanner's hold on the roster becomes suspect unless the Orioles decided to go with 13 pitches due to the flexibility of players like Tim Beckam and Danny Valencia.

What do you see?

[BohKnowsBmore]

Quote

The wildcard still? Tanner Scott has pitched pretty good this spring and Orioles could decide to go with him over Rodriguez.

Any concern that putting him in the BP may retard his development as a starter at all?  I know that it's the classic minors->BP->ML rotation path, but I would somewhat rather have a guy who needs to work on command just focus on being a starter at AAA for now.

Two questions:

1) What do you think about Greg Holland?  Any word on what his demands are right now?  Is the QO the problem with him?  He's 31, so I'm sure he's trying to cash in.  That said, he would be a nice piece to add to the BP.  Even if we're out of it at the deadline, he could be attractive to other teams.  Were there health concerns?

2) Are there any swing lefties still available?  Looking at MLB FA Tracker, it doesn't seem like there are.  Maybe this is where Tanner Scott is later in the season (get a good number of starts under his belt, then he can be a reliever and spot starter in the back half of the season).  Does he have a meaningful innings cap?  I'm seeing about 80 innings last year between Bowie (69), AZFL (9.1) and Baltimore (1.2).

[ReclaimTheCrown]

Great take, thanks.  My only question on this approach: isn't Joely on a minor league deal right now with no options (I know he's on a MiL deal, though I may be incorrect on the options)?  If so, we'd have to create a spot for him on the 40 (not a huge deal) but then DFA him after a week or two's time to bring up Cobb, thus exposing him to waivers to get him to Norfolk.  Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if the above is the case, it would seem imprudent to risk losing club control of him for essentially a week of action.  In that case, I'd rather just have Castro or Scott up for a week or so, then option him when Cobb is ready.

[interloper]

Basically agree. I still would rather just have Castro in the bullpen since he's done it successfully before, rather than Rodriguez who hasn't and can go to the minors without using an option. Might as well delay burning the Castro option if you can IMO. 

With Castro in the minors, you have 3 relievers on your major league team who either have had no experience in the big leagues or no success (Cortes, Araujo, Rodriguez). I really think it's beneficial to have Castro there for some stability initially.

[Babypowder]

6 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Any concern that putting him in the BP may retard his development as a starter at all?  I know that it's the classic minors->BP->ML rotation path, but I would somewhat rather have a guy who needs to work on command just focus on being a starter at AAA for now.

Two questions:

1) What do you think about Greg Holland?  Any word on what his demands are right now?  Is the QO the problem with him?  He's 31, so I'm sure he's trying to cash in.  That said, he would be a nice piece to add to the BP.  Even if we're out of it at the deadline, he could be attractive to other teams.  Were there health concerns?

2) Are there any swing lefties still available?  Looking at MLB FA Tracker, it doesn't seem like there are.  Maybe this is where Tanner Scott is later in the season (get a good number of starts under his belt, then he can be a reliever and spot starter in the back half of the season).  Does he have a meaningful innings cap?  I'm seeing about 80 innings last year between Bowie (69), AZFL (9.1) and Baltimore (1.2).

Scott is not being developed as a starter.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Great take, thanks.  My only question on this approach: isn't Joely on a minor league deal right now with no options (I know he's on a MiL deal, though I may be incorrect on the options)?  If so, we'd have to create a spot for him on the 40 (not a huge deal) but then DFA him after a week or two's time to bring up Cobb, thus exposing him to waivers to get him to Norfolk.  Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if the above is the case, it would seem imprudent to risk losing club control of him for essentially a week of action.  In that case, I'd rather just have Castro or Scott up for a week or so, then option him when Cobb is ready.

I was looking up Rodriguez and what I found indicates he still has an option so if the Orioles put him on the 540-man they can still option him this year. I'm sure someone better at this then me can confirm or deny this.

I agree though if he can't be optioned, I think Scott will get that last role because he can be optioned.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Scott is not being developed as a starter.

Got it.  I remembered the club transitioning him to starter work last season, but I see now in pulling up some old articles that was a development decision with the ultimate goal to still be BP at the show.  My bad.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-tanner-scott-20180109-story.html

Quote

 

Around the time of last year's minicamp, when the Orioles broke the news to electric left-hander Tanner Scott that he'd be working out of the starting rotation instead of the relief role that had suited him well as a pro, he wasn't nearly as certain about its benefits as he is now.

"It was definitely a good idea," Scott said. "I had good numbers last year and it was really good working on all my pitches and getting those extra innings in. I remember when I first got the call that I'm going to be a starter again. I was like, ‘Uh oh,’ but I accepted the challenge, and whatever challenge they give me this year, I'm going to go with it."

As the Orioles begin back down that path for 2018, with Scott now on the 40-man roster after a September cameo, his short-term development still might not be in the role where the team sees a big league future for him.

Director of player development Brian Graham said Tuesday that Scott would likely be back as a starter.

“Right now, it is [the same],” Graham said. “Hopefully in Triple-A. he'll start and get innings and pitch development.”

After posting a 2.22 ERA in 69 innings over 24 starts last season for Double-A Bowie, combined with his major league time and the Arizona Fall League, Scott pitched 80 total innings in 2017 — which is the same as his 2016 total as a reliever.

The main benefit of the starter's schedule was that Scott got a bullpen session between starts to refine his mechanics, which he's always struggled to maintain, and develop his slider. Many scouts saw a full-grade jump in his breaking ball from 2016 to 2017, and Scott believes it's a weapon he can be confident in going forward.

Should he stay on the starter's track, the club might ask Scott to put similar focus on his changeup, a pitch he seldom throws in games but could truly make him a rotation option at the highest level. While a fastball-slider left-hander who throws 100 mph could survive in a major league rotation if deployed correctly, a changeup would add a different dimension for him against right-handed hitters.

 

[interloper]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I was looking up Rodriguez and what I found indicates he still has an option so if the Orioles put him on the 540-man they can still option him this year. I'm sure someone better at this then me can confirm or deny this.

I agree though if he can't be optioned, I think Scott will get that last role because he can be optioned.

You don't think it's a problem having 3 untested relievers in the bullpen right out of the gate?

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I was looking up Rodriguez and what I found indicates he still has an option so if the Orioles put him on the 540-man they can still option him this year. I'm sure someone better at this then me can confirm or deny this.

I agree though if he can't be optioned, I think Scott will get that last role because he can be optioned.

Can you imagine Buck and Dan with a 540-man roster with which to work?

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Any concern that putting him in the BP may retard his development as a starter at all?  I know that it's the classic minors->BP->ML rotation path, but I would somewhat rather have a guy who needs to work on command just focus on being a starter at AAA for now.

Scott is not a starter. The Orioles were using him in that role by pitching him for three innings a start then giving him a work day in between to help him with his pitches and command. He will be used as a reliever once again this year I believe which is the role he belongs in at the major league level.

15 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Two questions:

1) What do you think about Greg Holland?  Any word on what his demands are right now?  Is the QO the problem with him?  He's 31, so I'm sure he's trying to cash in.  That said, he would be a nice piece to add to the BP.  Even if we're out of it at the deadline, he could be attractive to other teams.  Were there health concerns?

I wouldn't mind giving Holland a shot. Not sure what he want,s but he would be a nice bridge until Britton can return. No idea though what he's asking for.

15 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

2) Are there any swing lefties still available?  Looking at MLB FA Tracker, it doesn't seem like there are.  Maybe this is where Tanner Scott is later in the season (get a good number of starts under his belt, then he can be a reliever and spot starter in the back half of the season).  Does he have a meaningful innings cap?  I'm seeing about 80 innings last year between Bowie (69), AZFL (9.1) and Baltimore (1.2).

I really think Cortes will be the guy initially in that role and if he fails, Scott could be his replacement. Scott can get up to 120 innings this season if needed, but it's doubtful he would approach that.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

You don't think it's a problem having 3 untested relievers in the bullpen right out of the gate?

Well, I didn't put this bullpen together. lol

Sure, it's a concern, but they don't have a ton of other options. They could always go with Castro out there since he had success last year, but I think Buck might want those extra left-handers. It also depends on how serious they are about Castro starting. If they are not that serious then he can go to the bullpen and you demote Rodriguez. 

They do have a lot of right-handed reliever depth so if Araujo implodes they have a decent set of options.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Can you imagine Buck and Dan with a 540-man roster with which to work?

HAHA. They might actually makes roster moves in the middle of games if it were possible.

[scOtt]

I think you're spot on 1-11 Tony. Joely Rodriguez is probably right too. They probably want Castro starting in Norfolk. Donnie Hart was less than impressive this spring. Edgin is a possibility.

 

E: Didn't read your whole post Scott is definitely a possible too. Forgot about him.

[Redskins Rick]

I said 9 days for Cobb in the minor league, in another thread.

I think 12 or 13, does depend on Valencia and Beckham, but doesn't it also involve if Buck keeps 3 catcher. I can't image this happening, but some posters feel that the team can carry 3 catchers.

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

With the addition of Alex Cobb, the sending back of Jose Mesa Jr. and the struggles of Miguel Castro this spring, it's starting to look like the Orioles pitching staff for opening day is just about set. The only question will be whether they carry 12 or 13 pitchers to start the year. 

With the Orioles and Cobb having decided he will start the year in the minors until he's ready to pitch in the majors, that will give one pitcher a reprieve for a bit. That's probably going to be Joely Rodriguez who has been impressive this spring.

Here's how I see the Opening Day pitch staff shaping up. I think they go with 12 pitchers.

Starters
1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Andrew Cashner
4. Chris Tillman
5. Mike Wright Jr.

Relievers
6. Brad Brach
7. Mychal Givens
8. Darren O'Day
9. Richard Bleier
10. Nestor Cortes Jr.
11. Pedro Araujo
12. Joely Rodriguez

As good as Castro was last year, his struggles give them the opportunity to option him to Norfolk and try to work as a starter. Although I don't think he's a starter, it doesn't hurt to send him there and work in that role since I'm not convinced Tillman is a long term answer as the 5th starter this year.

The wildcard still? Tanner Scott has pitched pretty good this spring and Orioles could decide to go with him over Rodriguez.

Once Cobb returns, and I would not be surprised if that's not be the second week of the season, Rodriguez's hold on the roster becomes suspect unless the Orioles decided to go with 13 pitches due to the flexibility of players like Tim Beckam and Danny Valencia.

What do you see?

 

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, I didn't put this bullpen together. lol

Sure, it's a concern, but they don't have a ton of other options. They could always go with Castro out there since he had success last year, but I think Buck might want those extra left-handers. It also depends on how serious they are about Castro starting. If they are not that serious then he can go to the bullpen and you demote Rodriguez. 

They do have a lot of right-handed reliever depth so if Araujo implodes they have a decent set of options.

Yeah I gotcha. I just don't want to put much stock into Castro's bad spring if, in fact, ST numbers don't matter. The guy was great out of the pen last year - I don't think he's really a starter. Why mess with it?