Pretty amazing off season: O's reload

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, MagicBird said:

Months of offseason doom and  gloom, the FO & DD are a joke.   Tear it all down and trade Manny or the team will be in the cellar for years.  ONE player, Cobb gets signed and suddenly optimism springs up and we even have threads giving PA credit.

 

And I thought women were wishy washy and all over the place.  

Maybe some want to be optimistic about the team. Have hopes and dreams of the O's in the World Series. 

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why 7-10?  Why not 15 to 20?

You don't win every game that you get a Quality Start.   I guess the exact percentage might be interesting to research.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's started the offseason as a last place team.   Now they look like a contender.   If you believe those two statements then its been a pretty amazing offseason.

The key to the overhaul has to be the addition of Cobb and Cashner to the rotation .   Two solid starters.  Their influence probably makes Bundy and Gausman better.  The addition on two Rule 5 guys that look like the can help in the pen in Cortes and Arraujo.  Cortes may even help the rotation before the season is over. Add to that two lefties who did not make the opening day roster but are  ready to help the pen in Joely Rodriguez and Edgin.

The addition of four free agent veterans in Rasmus, Valencia, Pedro Alvarez, Gentry are stopgap players that fill holes.

 Player development should also be credited  for the addition of Sisco.   Austin Hays begins the year at AA but is likely to be in the majors soon. And let's not forget the development of Anthony Santander.   The rookie is emerging as an improved player both offensively and defensively.

The switch of Manny to shortstop and Beckham to 3rd seems to be going smoothly.  That mid season trade for Beckham looks pretty good right now.

This is a lot of moving parts.   A reload that puts the O's back in contention IMO.  Credit has to go to Dan, Brady, Ownership and the player development staff as well as Buck.

 

Agree! Not sure I understand folks who think Cashner is going to have some kind of Tillman-esque meltdown, based on his repertoire, the apparent re-emergence of his strikeout-inducing slider that he didn't carry all of last year (used a cutter instead), and his overall stuff (95 mph, good changeup). He's going to be solid. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why 7-10?  Why not 15 to 20?

Just going off history.     Last year we won 42 of 62 games where we had a quality start (67.7%) and 33 of 100 when we didn’t (33%).    So, their odds of winning improve about 34% if they get a quality start, and so 20 extra QS translates to about 7 more wins.  

The reason I said 7-10 is that it’s possible the extra innings pitched by the starters would help the bullpen in other games. 

[Aglets]

Just read an article that looked at the first 803 Quality Starts pitched in the 2015 season..........and the guy found that when a team got a QS they won 68.6% of the time.   Pretty good.    So in those "extra" 20 QS you'd expect to win 13-14 of them, whereas if you don't get a QS........let's assume Frobby's number above is accurate so you'd win 6-7..........that confirms the 7 number above.

We probably need Gausman and Bundy to improve too though, to be honest.  Interestingly enough we won Kevin Gausman starts at the same rate that we won Wade Miley starts last year (~47% of games they started the O's won).   If you look at Ubaldo starts.....we actually won in 48% of his games!  Part of that is luck with Miley and Ubaldo presumably (they only had 13 QS all year combined out of 57 yet we won 27 of their starts)  and maybe part of that is Gausman being inconsistent from month to month.  The starter with the best Team win % was Bundy (57%) which probably doesn't surprise anyone.

[vab]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Cobb and Cashner had 20 more quality starts than Miley and Ubaldo last year in the same number of starts.   

Cobb and Cashner 57 starts, 33 QS

Miley and Ubaldo 57 starts, 13 QS

Huge difference.

Cobb and Cashner probably wouldn't have had as many QS if they had been in Baltimore last year. Miley and Ubaldo probably would have had more pitching in other parks so while it's an upgrade it won't be 20 QS's better. Probably closer to 10.

[Enjoy Terror]

Team	W	QS	W/QS
Dodgers	104	68	1.53
Astros	101	67	1.51
Marlins	77	54	1.43
Twins	85	62	1.37
Brewers	86	65	1.32
Angels	80	61	1.31
Rockies	87	68	1.28
Reds	68	54	1.26
Mariners	78	62	1.26
Royals	80	64	1.25
Orioles	75	61	1.23
Indians	102	84	1.21
Yankees	91	75	1.21
Cubs	92	77	1.19
Diamondbacks	93	82	1.13
Mets	70	62	1.13
Blue Jays	76	69	1.10
Rays	80	73	1.10
Pirates	75	69	1.09
White Sox	67	63	1.06
Padres	71	67	1.06
Red Sox	93	88	1.06
Cardinals	83	79	1.05
Athletics	75	73	1.03
Phillies	66	65	1.02
Rangers	78	79	0.99
Nationals	97	99	0.98
Braves	72	77	0.94
Tigers	64	72	0.89
Giants	64	82	0.78
	2430	2121	1.15

Last year, on average, one quality start meant 1.15 wins. The data is pretty noisy though. Even teams like the Red Sox and Nats with great offenses were pretty bad at converting quality starts to wins. Nats had a terrible bullpen.

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

You all are way more optimistic about Cobb than I am.

This board went from “mutiny building” to “amazing offseason” in the span of the Cobb signing. I think that’s nuts.

Yeah, I hear ya. I was not a big Cobb guy before the signing. There are some red flags with him, not the least of which is he no longer has a feel for one of his pitches from his past success. 

Maybe a couple years removed from TJ will help, but I’m not counting on it.

[NCRaven]

I much preferred Cobb to Lynn.  So, I was generally happy with the Cobb signing.  It provides some stability for the future.  

Tillman is likely gone after this year with a younger pitcher replacing him - Harvey?  Akin?  Bundy, Gausman, Cobb, Harvey, Cashner, is not a bad place to start from in 2019.

4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Yeah, I hear ya. I was not a big Cobb guy before the signing. There are some red flags with him, not the least of which is he no longer has a feel for one of his pitches from his past success. 

Maybe a couple years removed from TJ will help, but I’m not counting on it.

 

[TouchemAll]

I didn't think they would do it, but the O's did about as good as could be expected improving the rotation. Now stay healthy and Davis and Trumbo have to improve, and we should be able to  contend for a WC spot.

[Il BuonO]

23 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I much preferred Cobb to Lynn.  So, I was generally happy with the Cobb signing.  It provides some stability for the future.  

Tillman is likely gone after this year with a younger pitcher replacing him - Harvey?  Akin?  Bundy, Gausman, Cobb, Harvey, Cashner, is not a bad place to start from in 2019.

Don’t get me wrong, I like the signing as opposed to say, Jimenez, where it seemed DD was trying to make a splash. But I’ll reserve judgement for at least his first few starts.

[DrungoHazewood]

54 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Last year, on average, one quality start meant 1.15 wins. The data is pretty noisy though.

That's to be expected.  Starting pitching is important, but it's not remotely more important than the combination of relief pitching, defense, and offense.  Tying QSes to wins is not entirely unlike trying to tie batting average to runs scored.  There is some correlation, but you're leaving out most of what you need to know.

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's started the offseason as a last place team.   Now they look like a contender.   If you believe those two statements then its been a pretty amazing offseason.

.  .  .

 

Not to me they don't. Not even in the twilight of a misty day, when I squint and take just a quick peek through rose-colored ski goggles. (My sunglasses are green.)

The O's do look like a team that can play .500 ball.  I'll give you that. And maybe they'll find a way to win 88, or even 90. Maybe they'll catch some breaks, the  competition will stumble, and they'll find a way to the postseason. I'm a lot more excited about 2018 than I was a few weeks ago.

Still, they don't look like a contender to me. 

I can't wait for them to prove me wrong one more time.

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

You all are way more optimistic about Cobb than I am.

This board went from “mutiny building” to “amazing offseason” in the span of the Cobb signing. I think that’s nuts.

Agreed.  Cobb is good and I was all for signing him, but the Orioles are likely going to be battling with Toronto for third.  Of course, a few injuries to Yankees/Red Sox players and a few bounces our way could change that.

[Moose Milligan]

Hope springs eternal optimism, but not from me.  3rd place at best.