Glenn Davis or Chris Davis?

[DrungoHazewood]

On ‎4‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 5:35 PM, Beef Supreme said:

There may be a couple of rotation-pieces in the low minors. Will be interesting to see their progress.

To think, the Glenn trade happened only because the Orioles gave away likely to become HOFer Eddie Murray in a trade for one prospect and two mediocre relievers in their late twenties. Imagine trading Schilling , Harnisch and Finley for Juan Bell and relief pitchers Brian Holton and Ken Howell. What the Orioles got for Murray would have been more like what they should have given up for Glenn in the fire-sale. But they never should have needed Glenn to begin with.

Nobody ever talks about Ken Howell, and if this trade is brought up he's just thought of as a throwaway piece.  He never pitched for the Orioles, being flipped to the Phils four days after the Eddie deal.

But... in 1989 he went 12-12 for a bad Phillies team.  Threw 204 innings to a 3.44, by modern retroactive figuring was a 4-rWAR pitcher.  He was in the top 10 in the NL in strikeouts and K/9.  He was the best player of the three the O's got back by a big margin.  But it looks like his arm fell off midway through the 1990 season and his career was over.

Anyway, the guy they got for Howell was Phil Bradley.  I've never been able to figure out Bradley's career arc.  In '86, for the Mariners, he had a .406 OBP.  In '87 he had 38 doubles, 10 triples, 14 homers, 40 steals and 84 walks.  Put up those numbers today and you might be the best leadoff hitter in baseball.  But the Mariners traded him with some bit pieces for Glenn Wilson, who was also an outfielder but had the advantage of not being as good as Bradley (basically take away 70 walks and replace it with a strong arm in RF).  After one year the O's got him for Howell.  He was a key part of the '89 team, but after he started '90 slowly he was flipped to the White Sox for the dying gasps of Ron Kittle's career.  He had 160 poor ABs with the Sox and his career was over.  Seems strange that a guy with a strong resume as a top of the order hitter would be flipped and discarded so often/quickly.

[wildbillhiccup]

On 4/9/2018 at 11:22 PM, Ohfan67 said:

Agree with Moose. The Orioles only gave away money to Chris. They gave away good players to Houston. 

...money that could have been spent on a TOR starting pitcher. 

I'll never not vote for Chris Davis as the worst Orioles contract signing ever. In fact, I think it might be the worst contract signing in baseball ever.  An injury didn't derail Chris Davis' career, he's just a terrible player and the Orioles did an absolutely atrocious job of evaluating his talent. Yes, a big part of that is on Angelos, but who in his inner circle was telling him that committing those years / dollars to Davis was a good move? 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...money that could have been spent on a TOR starting pitcher. 

I'll never not vote for Chris Davis as the worst Orioles contract signing ever. In fact, I think it might be the worst contract signing in baseball ever.  An injury didn't derail Chris Davis' career, he's just a terrible player and the Orioles did an absolutely atrocious job of evaluating his talent. Yes, a big part of that is on Angelos, but who in his inner circle was telling him that committing those years / dollars to Davis was a good move? 

 

There's a long way to go.  My default vote for worst contract ever is always for Ryan Howard, whose best year in his 5/125 deal was worth 0.6 wins.  Howard was coming off two below-average years at 30 and 31 before his five-year extension even started.  The Phils just kept playing him despite way below replacement production almost every year.  The O's could make Davis' contract better just by not playing him.  If he slips to Howard levels of production, that is.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's a long way to go.  My default vote for worst contract ever is always for Ryan Howard, whose best year in his 5/125 deal was worth 0.6 wins.  Howard was coming off two below-average years at 30 and 31 before his five-year extension even started.  The Phils just kept playing him despite way below replacement production almost every year.  The O's could make Davis' contract better just by not playing him.  If he slips to Howard levels of production, that is.

The Phils resigned him in April of 2010 right? So they got two good years out of him (2010 / 2011) before he went off the rails. And I can't really blame them for playing him. They were going to lose with or without Ryan Howard in the lineup. Davis' contract is worse. Howard's contract, as bad as it was, was only for five years. We're stuck with Davis for seven years (through 2022). The thought of that makes me sick to my stomach. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's a long way to go.  My default vote for worst contract ever is always for Ryan Howard, whose best year in his 5/125 deal was worth 0.6 wins.  Howard was coming off two below-average years at 30 and 31 before his five-year extension even started.  The Phils just kept playing him despite way below replacement production almost every year.  The O's could make Davis' contract better just by not playing him.  If he slips to Howard levels of production, that is.

Also don't understand your "coming off two below average years" comment (unless I'm missing something). Ryan Howard finished 10th  and 3rd in MVP voting in 2009 and 2008. 

 

 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

...money that could have been spent on a TOR starting pitcher. 

I'll never not vote for Chris Davis as the worst Orioles contract signing ever. In fact, I think it might be the worst contract signing in baseball ever.  An injury didn't derail Chris Davis' career, he's just a terrible player and the Orioles did an absolutely atrocious job of evaluating his talent. Yes, a big part of that is on Angelos, but who in his inner circle was telling him that committing those years / dollars to Davis was a good move? 

 

You could change the bolded part to, "the Orioles were never going to" and it would be far more accurate. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Phils resigned him in April of 2010 right? So they got two good years out of him (2010 / 2011) before he went off the rails. And I can't really blame them for playing him. They were going to lose with or without Ryan Howard in the lineup. Davis' contract is worse. Howard's contract, as bad as it was, was only for five years. We're stuck with Davis for seven years (through 2022). The thought of that makes me sick to my stomach. 

They had extended Howard through his age 31 season previously, then in the middle of his rapid decline they extended him for 5/125 through his age 36 season.  I think they were drunk on postseason success, keeping the band together. 

[Frobby]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

They had extended Howard through his age 31 season previously, then in the middle of his rapid decline they extended him for 5/125 through his age 36 season.  I think they were drunk on postseason success, keeping the band together. 

 

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They had extended Howard through his age 31 season previously, then in the middle of his rapid decline they extended him for 5/125 through his age 36 season.  I think they were drunk on postseason success, keeping the band together. 

I would not say Howard was in the middle of a rapid decline in April 2010.    He’d been worth 3.8 rWAR and 4.5 fWAR in 2009, leading the league in RBI.    It would have been hard to tell in April that his decline had begun.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Also don't understand your "coming off two below average years" comment (unless I'm missing something). Ryan Howard finished 10th  and 3rd in MVP voting in 2009 and 2008. 

 

 

His extension kicked in for the 2012 season.  Starting in 2008 his rWAR totals were 1.8, 3.8, 1.2, 1.2, -1.2....  His 2008 season was a carbon copy of Mark Trumbo's 2016.  Led the league in homers, but was a defensively challenged guy who was 45th in the majors in OPS+.  Hopefully one of the last MVP votes that pretty much ignored everything but RBI.

In '08 Albert Pujols beat Howard in OPS by 230 points, hit .357 with a .462 OBP, was a plus defensive first baseman, yet came pretty close to losing the MVP because RBI rock.

[Aglets]

What about Prince Fielder?   He last played in 2016 and is technically still under contract until 2020.   I'm guessing that one's more ok because the Rangers get bailed out due to an insurance claim or something?

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I would not say Howard was in the middle of a rapid decline in April 2010.    He’d been worth 3.8 rWAR and 4.5 fWAR in 2009, leading the league in RBI.    It would have been hard to tell in April that his decline had begun.

And in 2008 he hit .251 and was worth 1.8 rWAR.   In April of 2010 his contract wouldn't expire for almost two seasons, yet they re-upped him for five more.  He was an older Chris Davis with roughly 10 runs worse defense.

I guess you could give the Phils an out by saying shifts killed Howard.  He wend from hitting .280-.300 to hitting .220-.250.  I guess you can't predict that.  Although signing a 32-year-old to a long term deal always, always, always has a high risk of failure.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, Aglets said:

What about Prince Fielder?   He last played in 2016 and is technically still under contract until 2020.   I'm guessing that one's more ok because the Rangers get bailed out due to an insurance claim or something?

Oh that's bad, too.

See the pattern?  Just don't sign big, slow, sluggers on the far end of the defensive spectrum to contracts into their mid-30s.

[Aglets]

Eh, let's keep piling on!

Albert Pujols (age 38)

Last year was worth -1.8 WAR and was paid $26M

Signed through 2021 with his salary increasing each and every year by another $1M.

He'll be paid $30M in the final year of the deal at age 41.

Probably some competition for Chris Davis there.   Looks like the Angels are somehow making it all work so far tho.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Eh, let's keep piling on!

Albert Pujols (age 38)

Last year was worth -1.8 WAR and was paid $26M

Signed through 2021 with his salary increasing each and every year by another $1M.

He'll be paid $30M in the final year of the deal at age 41.

Probably some competition for Chris Davis there.   Looks like the Angels are somehow making it all work so far tho.

 

 

Miguel Cabrera 8 yr(s) / $248,000,000, signed through his age 40 season.

-.8 rWAR in 2017, -.2 rWAR so far in 2018.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Aglets said:

What about Prince Fielder?   He last played in 2016 and is technically still under contract until 2020.   I'm guessing that one's more ok because the Rangers get bailed out due to an insurance claim or something?

Fielder retired, so maybe he is not getting paid?