The O's have to play .551 ball to match last year's 2nd wildcard win total of 85

[interloper]

Basically, that's a near impossible clip to reach 85 wins from this point forward (though, sure, crazier things have happened). To me, playoff hopes have been soundly dashed by mid-April. 

The O's won't continue to be this bad, obviously, but they have to be EXCELLENT for the ENTIRE remainder of the year, basically playing to a 95+ win pace for the entire remainder of the year. The only question is whether or not the 2nd wild card somehow requires less than 85 wins.

I just don't see it. There might be some fun baseball left this summer, but the Orioles are, pending a few minor miracles, officially not a playoff team on April 18. 

[Spy Fox]

The good news is it's still so early that one hot streak can change these figures quickly. They are showing no signs of life in creating that hot streak, however.

I'm not looking season-long quite yet. I want them to climb back to .500 or above by late May. Do that and they're at least on the edge of the conversation going into the summer. Fail to do that, against the schedule we have coming up? They're almost certainly toast. 

[interloper]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

The good news is it's still so early that one hot streak can change these figures quickly. They are showing no signs of life in creating that hot streak, however.

I'm not looking season-long quite yet. I want them to climb back to .500 or above by late May. Do that and they're at least on the edge of the conversation going into the summer. Fail to do that, against the schedule we have coming up? They're almost certainly toast. 

I'm no mathematician but I'm not sure that's really true. Any hot streak would be within that 95 win pace, and they'd have to keep that up. They might rattle off 7 straight wins, but then they can't afford to have any real losing streaks. Dunno, I'm not the best at this kind of thing, but to me it just seems borderline impossible.

[Frobby]

The premise of the OP is wrong.   To win 85 games, the O’s would need to win 80 of the 145 remaining games.   That’s a .551 winning percentage, not .600.    

[interloper]

Just now, Frobby said:

The premise of the OP is wrong.   To win 85 games, the O’s would need to win 80 of the 145 remaining games.   That’s a .551 winning percentage, not .600.    

Thanks, I did some math wrong I guess! I had it at more like .580, hence the "nearly .600". 

The title is incorrect, but I argue that the premise of my OP is definitely correct. In that it's not possible for this team to play .551 for the remainder of the season. 

[interloper]

Also, it'll only take a few more losses for me to be correct.  

[Tony-OH]

Edited the title for clarity..

[interloper]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Edited the title for clarity..

Thank you!

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Thanks, I did some math wrong I guess! I had it at more like .580, hence the "nearly .600". 

The title is incorrect, but I argue that the premise of my OP is definitely correct. In that it's not possible for this team to play .551 for the remainder of the season. 

My guess is you forgot we’d already won 5 games, since it feels like we’ve won zero.

I don’t at all rule out the possibility that this team could play .551 ball from here.    Obviously, they need to start hitting to do that.   Right now I’m just focused on seeing the team win a game, then win a series.   Once that happens I’ll start thinking about what else they need to do to dig themselves out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.    First, stop losing.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My guess is you forgot we’d already won 5 games, since it feels like we’ve won zero.

I don’t at all rule out the possibility that this team could play .551 ball from here.    Obviously, they need to start hitting to do that.   Right now I’m just focused on seeing the team win a game, then win a series.   Once that happens I’ll start thinking about what else they need to do to dig themselves out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.    First, stop losing.

Like I said, I think there's some fun baseball left in this group, so I definitely haven't forgotten we won 5 games. Most of those in spectacular fashion in NY. 

And certainly the starting pitching could round into form nicely once Tillman is jettisoned. But... I see them mostly playing at a .500 clip for the rest of the year, and then finishing under .500. 

And I was very bullish on this team, too. They have major problems though.

[atomic]

What winning percentage do they need to get to 60 wins?  

[FanSince88]

If we're swept by the Tigers in this series, I'm pretty sure the season's over.  If we win one or two of the next two, we're barely hanging on but still alive.  Next two games are crucial.  We're not winning the Indians series this weekend, and will probably be favored heavily to be swept because we're running into a buzzsaw.  

[scbalt52]

If it makes anyone feel any better, in 2014 when we won the division and won 96 games, there was an 18 game stretch in May where we went 5-13. This streak is beyond frustrating, the schedule has been brutal, and it is magnified a lot because it is the beginning of the season. It is not the end. I hope it starts today, we can not afford to not take at least 4 games of the 6 against Detroit early.

[NashLumber]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The premise of the OP is wrong.   To win 85 games, the O’s would need to win 80 of the 145 remaining games.   That’s a .551 winning percentage, not .600.    

I posted earlier this morning that .600 puts them at 92 wins. .Maybe that’s where he got it from. 500 the rest of the year leaves them at 74--88. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

I posted earlier this morning that .600 puts them at 92 wins. .Maybe that’s where he got it from. 500 the rest of the year leaves them at 74--88. 

No, .500 the rest of the year leaves them at either 77 or 78 wins (there are an odd number of games remaining, so exactly .500 isn’t possible).