Rosenthal on Tex and the Orioles

[FellsPointOsFan]

Offer 8/200 and the deal might get done.

Not kidding. There is so much money around the sport these days. The Orioles can fill voids at other positions by trading away excess pitching talent.

Mackus is right. It is worth the price for the Orioles to show they are willing to do it and to get 4 or so years of Tex's production. Let future generations worry about the last few years of decline.

Seriously. At that point the Orioles will be competitive and rich, or still losers and it won't matter.

[Sports Guy]

Offer 8/200 and the deal might get done.

Not kidding. There is so much money around the sport these days. The Orioles can fill voids at other positions by trading away excess pitching talent.

It is worth the price for the Orioles to show they are willing to do it and to get 4 or so years of Tex's production. Let future generations worry about the last few years of decline.

Seriously. At that point the Orioles will be competitive and rich, or still losers and it won't matter.

That is truly one awful contract for us to give to ANY PLAYER.

[Aberdeener]

Let future generations worry about the last few years of decline.

Now that's a silly statement. I would imagine you would still be an O's fan in 8 years, so it's not just 'future generations' that will be complaining about the contract

[FellsPointOsFan]

All of baseball is insane. Frankly 20 some million a year is nothing. You gotta spend money to make money!

[BMann]

If Tex could lead us to a World Series win somewhere in the first five years of that contract, I'd have no problem watching the O's overpay him over the final year or two (or three) of a ridiculous 8-year deal. [Then again, it ain't my 20 million bucks.] Look at those last couple years as a 40-million dollar signing bonus.

[tywright]

Would we only lose a 2nd pick in 2009's draft if he we sign Tex? That's of course if we finish in the bottom half of MLB. Atlanta would only get a 1st rd compensatory awarded to them and a 2nd rd pick from us, correct?

[Mackus]

I don't see anyone offering 8 guaranteed years....I don't want to offer more than 6 guaranteed years personally.

Soriano got 8 guaranteed years heading into his age 31 season.

Of course he was coming off the best year of his career and he was though of potentially being a CF, but there is a comparison.

Tex will be coming into his age 29 season. He's having a down season, but his career OPS is still over .900 and he's still a GG caliber 1B. I could see 8 years being offered, although I don't know if I expect it.

I think it almost certainly will take 7 years, and as long as the money isn't too ridiculous, I'd probably consider it. 7/$140M would probably be my absolute max. Beyond that, I bow out. If its an 8-year deal but for a lesser amount, I'd be fine with that. Something like 8/$144M would probably be a cheaper deal than 7/$140M.

[Crazysilver03]

Would we only lose a 2nd pick in 2009's draft if he we sign Tex? That's of course if we finish in the bottom half of MLB. Atlanta would only get a 1st rd compensatory awarded to them and a 2nd rd pick from us, correct?

If we finish in the top 15, which is a legitimate possibility right now, we would lose our first round pick.

I would figure Atlanta offers him arbitration.

[Mad Mark]

If the Orioles payroll maxes out at or around $100M per season, I don't see how you can justify giving 1/5th of that money to 1/25th of your roster...no matter who the player is.

[Sports Guy]

Soriano got 8 guaranteed years heading into his age 31 season.

Of course he was coming off the best year of his career and he was though of potentially being a CF, but there is a comparison.

Tex will be coming into his age 29 season. He's having a down season, but his career OPS is still over .900 and he's still a GG caliber 1B. I could see 8 years being offered, although I don't know if I expect it.

I think it almost certainly will take 7 years, and as long as the money isn't too ridiculous, I'd probably consider it. 7/$140M would probably be my absolute max. Beyond that, I bow out. If its an 8-year deal but for a lesser amount, I'd be fine with that. Something like 8/$144M would probably be a cheaper deal than 7/$140M.

Sori also was coming off a 40/40 year.

That is a big difference.

There is talk the Yankees want to bring Giambi back right now, so that could come into play...What does the potential presence of Howard and Fielder do for the market? If you are the Yankees and you sign Tex, you are going to lose 2 picks.

So, maybe it takes you 1 or 2 other players to get Fielder or Howard and then sign for less money than Tex...How are you better off?

I think that is something to think about.

We have also seen big money deals handed out to first baseman, like Giambi and Helton, whose teams have regretted it...Does that play into anyone's mind?

If Tex continues to have a subpar year, how much will that effect him?

End of the day, Tex is very likely to be headed to 3 states...Maryland, NY or GA.

Where he ends up who knows but I do think the contract talk on here, in terms of how much he will get or how much we need to pay up, is very high.

Of course, that could change if he ends up with 40 homers and a 900+ OPS this year.

[bird watcher]

If the Orioles payroll maxes out at or around $100M per season, I don't see how you can justify giving 1/5th of that money to 1/25th of your roster...no matter who the player is.

I don't think AM would have signed on for this if he thought he was stuck at $100 mil a season. It would be a long arduous task to try and compete in this division without at least a couple hired guns.

[Mackus]

Sori also was coming off a 40/40 year.

That is a big difference.

There is talk the Yankees want to bring Giambi back right now, so that could come into play...What does the potential presence of Howard and Fielder do for the market? If you are the Yankees and you sign Tex, you are going to lose 2 picks.

So, maybe it takes you 1 or 2 other players to get Fielder or Howard and then sign for less money than Tex...How are you better off?

I think that is something to think about.

We have also seen big money deals handed out to first baseman, like Giambi and Helton, whose teams have regretted it...Does that play into anyone's mind?

If Tex continues to have a subpar year, how much will that effect him?

End of the day, Tex is very likely to be headed to 3 states...Maryland, NY or GA.

Where he ends up who knows but I do think the contract talk on here, in terms of how much he will get or how much we need to pay up, is very high.

Of course, that could change if he ends up with 40 homers and a 900+ OPS this year.

I agree all of those are factors, but I think its been quite obvious that when deciding whether to sign FAs or not, teams as a group have almost always erred on the "go ahead and spend the money" side rather than the "this isn't a great risk" side. Especially the teams from NY that you mention.

Even during his "down year" Tex still has a 120 OPS+ right now. Of course, his OPS jumped 40 points in one game on Sunday, but the cumulative stats are there. His career OPS+ is 130, so he's not that far off what he's always done. I don't think the "down year" will cost him very much money, but I do agree he won't be getting the extra money that Soriano got because of a career year.

[YankThis!]

20 million a season? I don't think thats bad at all. With that contract, the Orioles still wouldn't be above 100 million in payroll after all the contracts they're shedding.

A big reason for this is that we have young talent who haven't earned their big deals. If we want Markakis here long term he's going to fetch top dollar as will Adam Jones. Shelling out this kind of money might be affordable this year but 3 years down the road it could mean that a lot of talent walks away from the organization.

I don't think $20 million per for a 1st baseman is a good value. I'd rather have Huff at $8 million a year.

[davearm]

Miguel Cabrera (2008) 8/152

Todd Helton (2003) 9/142

(Rangers offer (2007) 8/140)

Alfonso Soriano (2007) 8/136

Vernon Wells (2008) 7/126

Carlos Beltran (2005) 7/119

I'd say that's the market range here. Top end seems likely with the big spenders all in the bidding.

[Sports Guy]

I agree all of those are factors, but I think its been quite obvious that when deciding whether to sign FAs or not, teams as a group have almost always erred on the "go ahead and spend the money" side rather than the "this isn't a great risk" side. Especially the teams from NY that you mention.

Even during his "down year" Tex still has a 120 OPS+ right now. Of course, his OPS jumped 40 points in one game on Sunday, but the cumulative stats are there. His career OPS+ is 130, so he's not that far off what he's always done. I don't think the "down year" will cost him very much money, but I do agree he won't be getting the extra money that Soriano got because of a career year.

No one cares about his OPS+.