ESPN: It's Time

[weams]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23395026/trade-machado-now-tracking-aces-mlb-next-big-thing

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That leaves us with those Orioles. Baltimore spent most of the winter doing nothing despite a starting rotation that in 2017 finished with a 5.70 ERA, the franchise's worst since relocating from St. Louis in 1954. Eventually, the Orioles added Alex Cobb (9.68 ERA) and Andrew Cashner (4.76), and brought back Chris Tillman (7.03). The Orioles' rotation ERA so far is 5.38. Improvement!

Unlike the Giants and Rangers, the Orioles' path forward seems clear. They have one of baseball's 10 best players in Manny Machado performing at peak level during his walk year. They have a farm system that ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball. And most of all, they have an 8-22 record and a run differential that justifies that sorry mark. They are in the AL East basement, 5½ games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. And it's not like the Orioles entered the season with a strong forecast -- I had them with about a 2 percent shot at the postseason on Opening Day. Those odds are now less than 1 percent.

Duquette's comment about Memorial Day is an old saw among baseball executives, and it suggests a lack of clarity about what his team actually is. My suspicion is that it's simply something execs like to say to mollify the media and to buy time with their fans. But is there any truth to it? Hasn't such a thing been studied?

Of course it has. Is there anything in baseball that hasn't been studied? Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus looked into this very topic. What he found is that somewhere around 39 games, run differentials across the league achieve a strong enough correlation with end-of-the-season numbers to be indicative. 

 

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The thing with the Orioles is that none of their data points paint an optimistic picture. Everything points to doom -- the record, the run differential, the preseason forecast. The Orioles have had injuries to their infield, and closer Zach Britton has yet to pitch. However, even an optimistic scenario would see Baltimore merely ascending to the level of their tepid spring projection. In other words, we are fast approaching the time when Baltimore must accept that it is what it is.

 

 

 

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[O]ne would hope that despite his Memorial Day benchmark, Duquette has not turned off his phone. Opportunity can arise at any moment, such as when the star shortstop of a contending team goes down. Maybe there isn't a trade match to be made with the Dodgers, but you've got to listen if L.A. calls.

This is not a good time to be indecisive or to overlook opportunity, whether it's because of fan service or mythical benchmarks

 

[Moose Milligan]

No.

"It's time" was a year and a half ago or so.

It's way, way past due now.  

Idiots.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Can someone inform this ESPN hack that we're not a "bottom ten" farm system. This pos publication needs to get its facts straight.

In some publications we are.   Depends who you ask.   

[MikeAD]

31 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Can someone inform this ESPN hack that we're not a "bottom ten" farm system. This pos publication needs to get its facts straight.

Debatable, depends on what the author/rankers value but we are in the bottom 10 for some.  Its close either way but we have terrible depth.  One or two busts/injuries and we're starting over again.  

[weams]

Austin Hays is batting .240 in AA. He has five homer runs I think.