Our Strasburg Harper moment

[Just Regular]

I’ve been watching Bundy as the key to whether a 2019 retool is possible, and the recent returns are…not good.

If there’s no stand to be made at Bundy cornerstone, there isn’t really a path for Schoop, Gausman or Givens to wrap up their club years meaningfully.

A full sell means embracing the back to back 1-1 destiny and hoping the baseball gods give you a Strasburg Harper blessing.

Fangraphs has 2019 and 2020 rankings out, so let’s start there.

2019 – High School SS Bobby Witt, Jr.

2020 – UCLA CF Garrett Mitchell

New Machado hopes!  I’ll give them the SS/CF jobs on the next good teams, and hope some Delmarva guys catch up to Bundy and Harvey, who can now go nice and slow for a couple years, while Akin gets his feet wet.

I think Machado has about $30M surplus value, and that’s competitive for Alex Verdugo.  To keep this shorter, I’m focusing on 1 key in each dump trade – I’m not worried about the assortment platter.

I think Schoop, Gausman and Givens are also at about $30M surplus value.

Cashner, Jones, Brach and O’Day may be about neutral – they can be sweeteners for clubs who might need them.

I don’t know what Bleier’s true talent ultimately is, only that he should be sold high.

Britton is the real wildcard – his trade value will heavily be defined by his next 20 MLB innings.  I’m going to guess personal favorite Yandy Diaz for his mid-case value.

Machado to Dodgers for Verdugo

Schoop and Bleier to Brewers for Hiura

Britton, Jones and cash to Indians for Diaz

Gausman and Brach to Braves for some recapitulation of the RA Dickey trade – going for two out of Soroka, Anderson, Toussaint, Fried, Wentz or Allard.  One at least should be doable, and it may be worth of it for the Braves to invest some of their baby Gausmans for the grown up version this summer.

Givens, O’Day and cash multiple choice (contenders in Bottom 10 of YTD Relief WAR)

To Nationals for Luis Garcia (Kieboom probably needs more)

To Angels for Brandon Marsh or Kevin Maitan

To Twins for Stephen Gonsalves or Wander Javier

To Giants for Heliot Ramos

To Mets for Andres Gimenez

To Cardinals for Andrew Knizner

To Dodgers for Yadier Alvarez

Hope Witt and Mitchell develop for some Ronald Acuna like moment in May 2022.

I’ll randomly guess Gonsalves from today’s bullpen needy, and manage service time aggressively for the org’s current Top Ten.  On a re-tool, I want Hays, Mullins, etc taking their major league lumps this summer, but just the opposite in this scenario.  Loads of time to take them next summer then.

By May 2019, I’d hope for something like:

3B Diaz, LF Verdugo, DH Mancini

1B Davis, SS Beckham, C Sisco

RF Hays, 2B Flaherty (Hiura after Super Two July 2019), CF Mullins

Bundy, Cobb, Gonsalves, Soroka, Harvey

Cashner and cash can be a supplement to close one of these deals this July.

Preston Tucker and Ryan Flaherty were very good for the April 2018 Braves, guys like that will have some jobs for us later this summer and early next year.

Why Not?

[Ruzious]

Consider that the top 6 ranke prospects in baseball going into 2018 were international prospects that the O's ignore.

And the vast majority of drafts don't have a prospect at the level of Harper or Strasburg.  Nats pretty much got blind lucky to get them both.  

 

[DirtyBird]

[24fps]

Jettisoning actual major league baseball players should never get in the way of acquiring potential major league ballplayers, don't you think?

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Consider that the top 6 ranke prospects in baseball going into 2018 were international prospects that the O's ignore.

And the vast majority of drafts don't have a prospect at the level of Harper or Strasburg.  Nats pretty much got blind lucky to get them both.  

 

Right - we won't be that lucky, but this is more that if Bundy can't lead a good team in 1-2 years, I don't think anyone else in the organization currently, or that we'll get back for this year's trade assets, can either.  So the lead dog becomes one of the consecutive uber-high draft picks coming in '19 and '20.  And Schoop, Gausman and Givens fall like dominoes from good supporting players on a relevant team sooner, to players who are also available next month.  

Not that I expect us to be able to coordinate selling four pieces in a month IRL.

[Three Run Homer]

I would have no problem with trading any of the players mentioned in the original post, as long as the club made good trades and got real prospects in return.  I don't want to see a Syd Thrift-style fire sale/salary dump.   

I don't know all of the prospects mentioned in the original post, but it's clear that the poster has done his homework and I think the strategic direction is sound--once you accept the fact that this team is not going to contend for the next 2-3 years, it makes sense to trade players who are going to hit free agency in the next 2-3 years for top prospects.  

[Just Regular]

26 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I respect your opinion,but I don't think a complete dismantling of the Oriole roster for these prospects is wise or inevitable.

Thanks Roy.  I don't think it is going to happen but I'm curious who you pin your hopes to for the medium-term.

I'm really grateful for what these guys have given the club, and this year's disappointment can't change that.  Apart from it being good baseball business IMO, I hope to see them all fighting for championships this fall, and it can't happen here.  Finding warm spots for Jones, Brach, etc is to me part of treating them well and providing them an opportunity to chase what the dogpile they are all playing for.

For those that truly bleed orange, and want to be part of a good team here, there's always the opportunity to return again when their free agency comes up.