Oriole Draft Primer: #11, #37, and my top 50 draft prospects

[Pheasants]

Sorry, cbs sports

[Luke-OH]

40 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Can sports today has us taking Shane McClanahan pitcher from South Florida. What do you think of him?

He just missed my top 11, he'll be in the next edition. Huge stuff, best FB in the draft, 100 from the left side. Plenty of risk though, control issues, tommy john survivor, smaller frame. A lot of relief risk for this early in the draft, but might be the highest upside college arm.

[ChuckS]

Jonathan India seems like a safe pick.  Average or better skills across the board.  Advanced hitter.  Has the glove for 3B and potentially SS.  I would be happy with that pick. 

LHP Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss) is another one I like and seems like an Orioles kind of pick.  

[sportsfan8703]

We’ve had pretty good success with pitchers in rounds 2-8ish. College and High School. See Delmarva and Frederick. 

I say stay with that theory. Don’t blow the whole draft budget on a first round overslot. Spread out the money and take the most lotto tickets. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Jonathan India seems like a safe pick.  Average or better skills across the board.  Advanced hitter.  Has the glove for 3B and potentially SS.  I would be happy with that pick. 

LHP Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss) is another one I like and seems like an Orioles kind of pick.  

India is pretty safe I think.

Rolison is more of a 20-30 overall guy for me, there is some upside, he's a Soph., good LH velocity, plus curveball. Might take above slot, depending on where he goes, although at 11 slot would probably do it.

The concern for me is RHB get a long look, the changeup needs work, and the command needs work. That's enough risk to push him out of the first half of the first round for me.

 

[weams]

On 5/23/2018 at 5:45 AM, Luke-OH said:

New article up this morning, in which I list my personal 11 favorite draft prospects with notes and video as well as discuss briefly strategy and players likely to be available at the spot.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/05/23/orioles-draft-primer-the-first-round/

This thread may get moved to the Amateur Draft sub-forum eventually, but I wanted to put it here first for exposure and discussion.

What wonderful work. Gilbert or Liberatore it is for me then. 

[panick]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

India is pretty safe I think.

Rolison is more of a 20-30 overall guy for me, there is some upside, he's a Soph., good LH velocity, plus curveball. Might take above slot, depending on where he goes, although at 11 slot would probably do it.

The concern for me is RHB get a long look, the changeup needs work, and the command needs work. That's enough risk to push him out of the first half of the first round for me.

 

I read an analysis of India and it said that his first two years were 'pedestrian', but this year he is one of the best hitters in college. Does it happen often that a guy is ordinary and then becomes exceptional?

I keep thinking of average major leaguers who have a great season in their contract years, and then go back to being average after getting their big contracts.

[Jammer7]

I would love Madrigal, but that seems unlikely. For me, I think there is a decent shot that the O's take Nolan Gorman if he is available. Our track record recently favors recognizing and developing bats, and he has legit impact power. After that, I think they will look strongly at HS RHP's Carter Stewart and Ethan Hankins, if they are available and Gorman is not. The LHP Weathers is an outside shot too, especially if they go underslot.

A note about Gilbert and Stetson. Cory Kluber also went to Stetson, not just DeGrom. Personally, not a fan of taking college juniors displaying a big drop in velo and effectiveness. That scenario reminds me of Sedlock. That is a risky profile for the #11 pick when you can get one of the other three I mentioned. Not sure what the deal is with Mize, but everything I read says he is 1-1.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I would love Madrigal, but that seems unlikely. For me, I think there is a decent shot that the O's take Nolan Gorman if he is available. Our track record recently favors recognizing and developing bats, and he has legit impact power. After that, I think they will look strongly at HS RHP's Carter Stewart and Ethan Hankins, if they are available and Gorman is not. The LHP Weathers is an outside shot too, especially if they go underslot.

A note about Gilbert and Stetson. Cory Kluber also went to Stetson, not just DeGrom. Personally, not a fan of taking college juniors displaying a big drop in velo and effectiveness. That scenario reminds me of Sedlock. That is a risky profile for the #11 pick when you can get one of the other three I mentioned. Not sure what the deal is with Mize, but everything I read says he is 1-1.

I like Weathers, he’s just outside of my top 11. Hankins is a weird case, he was amazing last summer but his stuff has backed up big time this spring (velocity and breaking ball quality) and supposedly the medicals are fairly clean, which presents quite the mystery, someone will take the risk, but 11 is too early for that IMO. I’m not a Gorman fan, I think there is a risk he just doesn’t hit and if I’m going to draft a HS guy with a maxed body, I want one who is performing, not struggling to deal with guys pitching around him. He’s a late first guy for me.

As far as the Sedlock comparison, it doesn’t apply at all for me. Gilbert is a lower effort guy with a cleaner delivery, his velocity did decrease but has increased as the college season progressed, and he’s been more effective than ever. Sedlock didn’t lose velocity in college, the red flag with him was he had a huge jump in workload going from reliever to starter. The closest Sedlock comp (meaning similar concerns rather than build or stuff) in this draft is Roberts from Wake Forest.

[Luke-OH]

7 hours ago, panick said:

I read an analysis of India and it said that his first two years were 'pedestrian', but this year he is one of the best hitters in college. Does it happen often that a guy is ordinary and then becomes exceptional?

I keep thinking of average major leaguers who have a great season in their contract years, and then go back to being average after getting their big contracts.

India added strength to his frame, that’s the biggest cause for the breakout, although he’s probably not as good as his current batting line.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

India is pretty safe I think.

Rolison is more of a 20-30 overall guy for me, there is some upside, he's a Soph., good LH velocity, plus curveball. Might take above slot, depending on where he goes, although at 11 slot would probably do it.

The concern for me is RHB get a long look, the changeup needs work, and the command needs work. That's enough risk to push him out of the first half of the first round for me.

 

I hate safe. 

[weams]

7 hours ago, panick said:

I read an analysis of India and it said that his first two years were 'pedestrian', but this year he is one of the best hitters in college. Does it happen often that a guy is ordinary and then becomes exceptional?

I keep thinking of average major leaguers who have a great season in their contract years, and then go back to being average after getting their big contracts.

I agree

[joelala]

On 5/23/2018 at 6:21 PM, Luke-OH said:

Practically zero.

I see the concern, but both the hitch and the inconsistent load of his back hip are relatively easy fixes IMO. I think the early transfer and weak transfer are both caused by him failing to properly load his weight on his back hip.

He's performed against the very best prep competition and while the issues raise the risk profile, the reward could be quite high which is why I see him that highly. I noted that there are some lower risk options (India being one of them).

Very true, I suppose it could be worth the risk looking at the state of things.  And he has the glove and the arm to stay at short long term?  He certainly looks like he has the build

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, joelala said:

Very true, I suppose it could be worth the risk looking at the state of things.  And he has the glove and the arm to stay at short long term?  He certainly looks like he has the build

Yeah, I think the consensus is that he has a great chance to stick at SS.

Not to get ahead of myself (this info is coming in my next article), but perhaps my favorite HS SS is Jeremiah Jackson. My confidence level in him is much lower (which is why he's ranked lower), because he doesn't have the same performance history as Turang and he was a 3rd/4th round type coming into the spring and has improved significantly. He has a Lindor-like frame, smooth hands and transfer, he had a pushy swing last summer, but has clearly added strength and transformed his swing. He joins the list of 4 or 5 guys who I'd be very happy if the O's could grab at 37.

[Jammer7]

16 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I like Weathers, he’s just outside of my top 11. Hankins is a weird case, he was amazing last summer but his stuff has backed up big time this spring (velocity and breaking ball quality) and supposedly the medicals are fairly clean, which presents quite the mystery, someone will take the risk, but 11 is too early for that IMO. I’m not a Gorman fan, I think there is a risk he just doesn’t hit and if I’m going to draft a HS guy with a maxed body, I want one who is performing, not struggling to deal with guys pitching around him. He’s a late first guy for me.

As far as the Sedlock comparison, it doesn’t apply at all for me. Gilbert is a lower effort guy with a cleaner delivery, his velocity did decrease but has increased as the college season progressed, and he’s been more effective than ever. Sedlock didn’t lose velocity in college, the red flag with him was he had a huge jump in workload going from reliever to starter. The closest Sedlock comp (meaning similar concerns rather than build or stuff) in this draft is Roberts from Wake Forest.

For the past month of the season, Hankins actually was back to form according to several reports. He may not be there when we pick.

Gorman has hit quite well for years, and against quality pitching. I have seen it. His travel team gets every teams best shot, and he was dominant. He looks like he has made some changes to just hit bombs for his draft status. If you have not seen it yet, try to get some video from early summer 2017 and before. I have been told (by some who know him well) that he is pressing some and that most scouts have faith in his track record. He is not a redux of Billy Rowell.

And I did not mean to comp Gilbert with Sedlock. They are quite different as you said. Its just with his performance this spring, I would be more comfortable taking Gilbert around #15-25. Sedlock was #27 in 2016 due to concerns about his overuse. I agree with you on their differences. I would be OK with Gilbert. For me, I would like to get a college guy who can be a TOR starter at #11. I'm not sold he is better than a 3. Obviously, we disagree just a bit. Maybe he has a lower number to sign and that allows them to go overslot at #37 or later.