Jump to content

Fangraphs: Longball Pause

weams

By weams
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/something-has-paused-the-home-run-spike/

By using a new model using three variables (including temperature), I find that the 2018 home run still is about 300 behind what one would expect based on the 2017 history. So temperature explains some, but not all of the drop in the 2018 home runs.

Home runs are down. That much we know. They’re not down by a dramatic amount, and it’s possible, as a fan, you hadn’t even noticed. It’s not like hitting for power is in any way endangered. Still, consider what the scientific committee found. In their collective judgment, home runs took off because the baseballs themselves experienced lesser drag. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • SteveA
      Anyone tried the Immaculate Grid game?

      By SteveA · Posted

      Another successful all Oriole grid, 36 rarity points:
    • cboemmeljr
      AFL GAME SUMMARIES (ORIOLES PROSPECTS)

      By cboemmeljr · Posted

      GAME SUMMARY: 10/11/24
    • Warehouse
      The Difference between the O's and other Playoff teams

      By Warehouse · Posted

      He was allowed to face LHP.  My post wasn’t disagreeing with your post.  I was saying that not only did we let him face LHP, we let him do so despite not having much success against LHP.  I was pushing back against the narrative that we needlessly platooned Cowser.  Not only did we not platoon him, there is a reasonable argument that we should have platooned more than we did. We needed to play one of Mullins and Cowser in CF. Cowser mostly got the call vs. LHP because he was much better against LHP in the first half of the year, but this flipped in the second half.
    • Just Regular
      rWAR Year of birth leaders after 2024 - notable Orioles

      By Just Regular · Posted

      From Adley to Basallo, I think Elias has eight Bats I hope we get to see all take 600 PA simultaneously some season. Adley was born in 1998, and until he arrived Elias Orioles baseball was bad by design.    For flavor, leaders of those teams like 1994-1997 births Mullins, Santander, Hays and Mountcastle are all between 10th and 20th among bats born their year.   Your team might be drafting Jackson Holliday if they are your club's best players in a rebuild, unless you have great pitching, which...haha, we know Elias' game. MLB Baseball is mostly played by guys 24-32.    286 batters cleared 300 PA in 2024 - about 12% were 33 and up by Fangraphs seasonal age assignments, about 8% were 23 and down. This is just a once a year post, but looking at Bats born from Adley's 1998 to Basallo's 2004, here's how the Orioles achievements compare with MLB's best by rWAR. 1998 - Adley is 4th 1999 - Westburg is 9th, and Kjerstad is 33rd 2000 - Cowser is 16th 2001 - Gunnar is 1st, and Mayo is nearly last, having dug a deep hole in his initial PA.    Trivia - Darell Hernaiz one of the 3 beneath Mayo.    Noelvi Marte dead last also has a PED suspension, d'oh. 2003 - Holliday is 4th - Minnesota the last weekend he got himself out of negative WAR territory. 2004 - Basallo is n/a as Chourio alone has played MLB from that birth year.    Basallo did log the most high minors experience of the 2004 births during the 2024 season. In 2025, Gunnar enters the 24-32 range as Judge departs it.     Cowser's improvement after an off-season a story of comfort for Holliday and Mayo - can they approach his ~3.5 win contribution? Strong, young teams - doing this exercise highlighted Adley's Orioles a little younger than the Braves and all their famous contract extensions.    Acuna, Albies and Riley were all born the year before Adley.   On the AL side of the competition, Yordan and Kyle Tucker also 1997 holding up a strong competitor, though not one that is young anymore.     Judge and Gerrit hoping Soto please stays.    Soto from 1998 - you have to reach back to 1994 for Correa, Bregman and C. Seager to find anyone ahead of him.
    • Camden_yardbird
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By Camden_yardbird · Posted

      The Orioles have a lot of flexibility both in terms of prospects, money and potential veterans that hold value. Vets - I could see the Orioles moving on from any of Mountcastle, Mullins, Urias, or O'Hearn. These players may hold the most potential to bullpen upgrades. Money - The Orioles will certainly spend this offseason and that more flexibility than they have had.  I would like to see 1 or 2 extensions, 1 high profile FA, and maybe 1 more solid addition. Prospects - I could see any of the big 4 going somewhere.  I really think the Orioles and Pirates match up really well.  The Pirates have a plethora of young pitchers and the Orioles have young hitters.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the two match up.
    • eddie83
      Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, Fredi Gonzalez and Jose Hernandez let go

      By eddie83 · Posted

      The hitting philosophy works. That’s why they have been winning the last two years.     Plenty of runs scoring off HR’s in the playoffs. 
    • DrinkinWithFermi
      Offseason Trade Pondering

      By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted

      They would probably want two of Mayo, Basallo, Holliday, and Kjerstad, plus other pieces (likely at least one good pitching prospect, so someone like Povich or McDermott), for both Crochet and Robert.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...