Epic Fail

[now]

I don't know how historic is this epic fail of the 2018 Orioles, but it's shocking the extent of the collapse, up and down the roster. (I'd love to see the all-time Pecota over- and underachievers.) For now, I ran a simple spreadsheet to show percentage of decline (23 players) or improvement (7 players) over career averages, using ERA and OPS. The following chart is the result.

Player	2018	career	difference
Tillman	10.46	4.57	-129%
Cobb	6.19	3.68	-68%
Susac	269	657	-59%
Rasmus	317	747	-58%
O'Day	3.77	2.56	-47%
Davis	464	802	-42%
Brach	4.24	3.07	-38%
Givens	3.98	2.93	-36%
Beckham	509	734	-31%
Cashner	4.98	3.89	-28%
Schoop	609	740	-18%
Joseph	527	629	-16%
Mancini	669	791	-15%
Peterson	550	643	-14%
Gentry	575	665	-14%
Sisco	670	751	-11%
Gausman	4.58	4.22	-9%
Wright	6.46	5.97	-8%
Trumbo	721	761	-5%
Santander	547	565	-3%
Alvarez	736	759	-3%
Bleier	2.03	1.99	-2%
Jones	763	778	-2%
Bundy	4.04	4.11	2%
Rickard	682	661	3%
Scott	4.96	5.5	10%
Valencia	832	748	11%
Machado	975	817	19%
Castro	2.84	3.95	28%
Hart	1.59	2.66	40%

The 23 players doing worse than their career numbers did so at a collective -656%, averaging -29% with their 2018 production. The 7 players doing better than their career numbers did so at a collective +114%, averaging +16% for this season.

I'm no statistician, but how improbable is it that so much decline can be so widespread on one team? Maybe the "bad morale" theory makes the most sense, after all.

[nsw]

Thanks for pulling this together. It does help us see how widespread the "unluckiness" is with our squad.

I caution against comparing percentages, however. Example: Davis is at -42% and Brach is right behind at -38%. However using a broader metric, Davis is at -1.8 WAR and Brach is at 0.5. Brach is still quite useful, whereas Davis is not.

Adam Dunn's -3.0 WAR in 496 PA in 2011 would seem to be our "target" for record-breaking non-achievement. Finally, a reason to watch the games!

[MarCakes21]

Thanks for putting it together.  Probably better to do with OPS+ and ERA+ to have them normalized to some degree, but it is an interesting take.

[JR Oriole]

Do those career numbers INCLUDE 2018?  If so, then that actually makes things even worse for the "underperformers."   

 

[TonySoprano]

Very good chart.
I'm not so worried about the guys who are under 10% of their career norms.  Few players perform at the same level month after month, some are first-half or second-half performers, so there's still time to improve.  Having said that, Buck is clearly frustrated with the seriously underperforming guys on the roster, of which there are several.

Quote

Manager Buck Showalter, a longtime advocate of trusting players who have had success, said Saturday that “it’s only so long you can talk about track records. You seek your level, but your level’s got to get better than what we’re doing.”

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-main-20180611-story.html
 

[now]

1 hour ago, JR Oriole said:

Do those career numbers INCLUDE 2018?  If so, then that actually makes things even worse for the "underperformers."   

 

That's right. Also I agree the ERA+ and OPS+ figures would be more accurate. And I would be curious about the PECOTA comps...