What do we think of Dylan Bundy?

[Barnaby Graves]

Amidst this absolute trash fire of a season, Bundy has been a respectable starting pitcher at the age of 25.  He is a rigorous worker and physical specimen.  He has had ups and downs which have averaged out to roughly an average starter so far in 2018.  Let's look at some numbers (and I haven't done this in forever so supplement my work with your own input please!)

Big numbers: At 4.04, Dylan's ERA is roughly at his career average (4.11), and at 4.56, his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is roughly at his career average (4.52).  But his expected FIP (xFIP), which adjusts for the league HR/FB rate, is 3.91, well below a career average of 4.56.  Dylan's home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) has spiked from 11.5% last year to 16.3% this year.  He is striking out 10.47 per 9 versus 8.06 per 9 last year, a fairly incredible jump which may be indicative of his progress or the astonishing K rates in the game today, I could take or leave that although it is very nice.  His walk rate was 2.71 last year and 2.74 this year, and that's a very solid number.

Batted balls: Unfortunately, the Orioles defense is mostly comprised of used chewing gum assembled into human-shaped statues, at the expense of our pitching staff.  Dylan's batting average with balls in play (BABIP) has risen from .273 to .295, despite a falling line drive rate (LD%) (20.0 to 16.2), a rising groundball rate (GB%) (32.8 to 35.8), and his infield hit rate (IFH%) has gone from 7.0% to 11.0%.  His rates of soft, medium, and hard contact are basically the same from last year, but batters are pulling the ball 45.1% vs. 37.9% last year.  He uses his fastball at basically the same rate (53.7% last year, 54.9% last year) though it is slower (92.2 MPH vs 91.6 MPH).  I don't see too much change in the composition of his repertoire, I think there's a fairly straight line between his issues with batted balls and the ineptitude of our dead-last defensive corps.  It is interesting to see that pull rate though, and I don't know what it really means.  Is it driving the increase in HR/FB?

Batter plate discipline: Continuing through the Fangraphs tables, we see Dylan's O-Swing% has climbed from 32.1% to 36.2% while his O-Contact% has dropped from 61.1% to 54.7%.  His contact rate has dropped from 76.6% to 71.7%.  He is throwing 64.1% first strikes vs. 59.6% last year.  He's basically in the zone the same amount.  I have no particular comment, these are all positive trends.  I think the decline in batter discipline against Dylan, and the increase in pull numbers, suggest more hitters are guessing at his offerings and pulling the trigger before the ball has left his hand.  When he has no stuff, we see him get pounded like he did against the Royals.  When the ball is moving, forget it; that's not an approach you can realistically take against a major league pitcher and be successful beyond some glimpses of blind luck.  The question I have is, is Dylan doing something to drive that trend, or is this just how batters behave now?  I could believe either one.  The whole league is swinging like this against other pitchers besides Dylan.

Conclusion: Even if we are in everything-must-go mode, I have to think hard about trading Dylan Bundy.  His earliest year of free agency is 2022.  My calculus to trade or not depends on the rebuild cycle, because that is going to take a while to bare fruit (IMO).  He's cheap and seems to be improving.  If the Orioles reload and get enough breaks, competing in 2021 is my most realistic timetable for them to compete, and Dylan Bundy would be 28.  Who knows what he'd be by then; he could be the anchor taking them into the postseason.  I don't see him falling off a cliff barring an injury, due to his physical stature, though he does have a checkered health history.  His velocity will likely continue a typical decline, but he only uses his fastball a little over half the time right now anyway.

And on the other hand, you have to wonder what a young, improving, cheap pitcher could get you, and if the return from him fits better into our organizational timetable than he does.  After all, he's not worth much winning 15 games for a 70-win team, anymore than Bedard was.

So, what do you think?

[Mendoza Line]

5 minutes ago, Barnaby Graves said:

Amidst this absolute trash fire of a season, Bundy has been a respectable starting pitcher at the age of 25.  He is a rigorous worker and physical specimen.  He has had ups and downs which have averaged out to roughly an average starter so far in 2018.  Let's look at some numbers (and I haven't done this in forever so supplement my work with your own input please!)

Big numbers: At 4.04, Dylan's ERA is roughly at his career average (4.11), and at 4.56, his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is roughly at his career average (4.52).  But his expected FIP (xFIP), which adjusts for the league HR/FB rate, is 3.91, well below a career average of 4.56.  Dylan's home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) has spiked from 11.5% last year to 16.3% this year.  He is striking out 10.47 per 9 versus 8.06 per 9 last year, a fairly incredible jump which may be indicative of his progress or the astonishing K rates in the game today, I could take or leave that although it is very nice.  His walk rate was 2.71 last year and 2.74 this year, and that's a very solid number.

Batted balls: Unfortunately, the Orioles defense is mostly comprised of used chewing gum assembled into human-shaped statues, at the expense of our pitching staff.  Dylan's batting average with balls in play (BABIP) has risen from .273 to .295, despite a falling line drive rate (LD%) (20.0 to 16.2), a rising groundball rate (GB%) (32.8 to 35.8), and his infield hit rate (IFH%) has gone from 7.0% to 11.0%.  His rates of soft, medium, and hard contact are basically the same from last year, but batters are pulling the ball 45.1% vs. 37.9% last year.  He uses his fastball at basically the same rate (53.7% last year, 54.9% last year) though it is slower (92.2 MPH vs 91.6 MPH).  I don't see too much change in the composition of his repertoire, I think there's a fairly straight line between his issues with batted balls and the ineptitude of our dead-last defensive corps.  It is interesting to see that pull rate though, and I don't know what it really means.  Is it driving the increase in HR/FB?

Batter plate discipline: Continuing through the Fangraphs tables, we see Dylan's O-Swing% has climbed from 32.1% to 36.2% while his O-Contact% has dropped from 61.1% to 54.7%.  His contact rate has dropped from 76.6% to 71.7%.  He is throwing 64.1% first strikes vs. 59.6% last year.  He's basically in the zone the same amount.  I have no particular comment, these are all positive trends.  I think the decline in batter discipline against Dylan, and the increase in pull numbers, suggest more hitters are guessing at his offerings and pulling the trigger before the ball has left his hand.  When he has no stuff, we see him get pounded like he did against the Royals.  When the ball is moving, forget it; that's not an approach you can realistically take against a major league pitcher and be successful beyond some glimpses of blind luck.  The question I have is, is Dylan doing something to drive that trend, or is this just how batters behave now?  I could believe either one.  The whole league is swinging like this against other pitchers besides Dylan.

Conclusion: Even if we are in everything-must-go mode, I have to think hard about trading Dylan Bundy.  His earliest year of free agency is 2022.  My calculus to trade or not depends on the rebuild cycle, because that is going to take a while to bare fruit (IMO).  He's cheap and seems to be improving.  If the Orioles reload and get enough breaks, competing in 2021 is my most realistic timetable for them to compete, and Dylan Bundy would be 28.  Who knows what he'd be by then; he could be the anchor taking them into the postseason.  I don't see him falling off a cliff barring an injury, due to his physical stature, though he does have a checkered health history.  His velocity will likely continue a typical decline, but he only uses his fastball a little over half the time right now anyway.

And on the other hand, you have to wonder what a young, improving, cheap pitcher could get you, and if the return from him fits better into our organizational timetable than he does.  After all, he's not worth much winning 15 games for a 70-win team, anymore than Bedard was.

So, what do you think?

You need to update his numbers after tonight. His ERA dropped close to a half run

[Barnaby Graves]

3 minutes ago, Mendoza Line said:

You need to update his numbers after tonight. His ERA dropped close to a half run

That's what happens when you make threads in June! 

[Aristotelian]

They are not trading Bundy. If they do, they should get even better return than a rental of Manny. Better bet is to let him keep building his value, hopefully with a better defense behind him. Then reconsider in a year or two.

[Mendoza Line]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

They are not trading Bundy. If they do, they should get even better return than a rental of Manny. Better bet is to let him keep building his value, hopefully with a better defense behind him. Then reconsider in a year or two.

You'd have to think close to a Bedard like return. Outside the HRs, he's got all the makings of a legit TOR starter, with several years of control. I think you have have to throw out the struggles at the end of May given what he has done before and after that "mechanical adjustment"

[Frobby]

He’s one of the few players who’s worth watching on this team.   

[Malike]

I'm down to trade them all. Whatever gives you the best return. Bundy won't be a part of the next winning O's team.

[Lucky_13]

I'm bummed we won't be able to see him in a playoff situation anytime soon.  I think he'd thrive in high pressure games 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s one of the few players who’s worth watching on this team.   

Depends on the night.  Some nights are terrible, some nights are a gem.

Which means he's got a better shot than most of our guys of having a good night.

[ChuckS]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Depends on the night.  Some nights are terrible, some nights are a gem.

Which means he's got a better shot than most of our guys of having a good night.

I think he was hurt in May during that stretch where he was getting lit up.  Fastball was down a few ticks. He's recovered. 

Bundy is as close to an ace that we have had since Mussina.  

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Depends on the night.  Some nights are terrible, some nights are a gem.

Which means he's got a better shot than most of our guys of having a good night.

9 quality starts out of 14, and two others that were half decent.   

[Dr. Unk]

Team lets him down again.  Hope they don't bring him down.

[allquixotic]

They should totally trade Bundy either this year or next year. Probably better to wait until next year. Hopefully we won't be the worst team in the MLB next year and he will have some young, good defenders behind him.

[eddie83]

I trust he will be as good as he can be. He is a tough guy. May be my favorite player we have.  

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Unk said:

Team lets him down again.  Hope they don't bring him down.

I don’t think he is wired that way.