Orioles to be more active in International Free Agent Market

[theocean]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks make it seem like VVM doesn't have any upside.

If VVM can hit, and yes it is a pretty big if, he can be a solid above average MLB player.

I think VVM will be a solid major league player. I think most of the pushback here is in response to those speaking like VVM is "Joe Mauer with power."

[Going Underground]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That doesn't get O'Day off the books.

i know some in the media ,especially MASN spun the trade as getting some more money for international signings but  this is what it really was.

Jon Meoli:

The indispensable MLBTR arbitration projections are out, and show that the Orioles chopped a quarter of their 2019 payroll with the July 31 trades of Gausman, O'Day, and Schoop. Considering the return, it wasn't about the Mesas. It was about the money.

 

That means 10 players will make an estimated $63.2 million, and if the rest of the roster is at or near the minimum salary of approximately $550,000, that's roughly an additional $8.25 million for a total of $71.45 million spent on present major league payroll.

How did the Orioles end up beginning the offseason with a projected Opening Day payroll that's 48 percent of last year's ($148.57 million)? That requires going back to the July 31 trades of Kevin Gausman, Darren O'Day and Jonathan Schoop — all of whom were under contract for 2019, and in Gausman's case, beyond.

 

O'Day has $9 million in salary guaranteed for 2019 (with $1 million deferred, and the Braves took the total of $3 million in deferred money from 2016-2018, too), and the MLBTR projections have Gausman and Schoop expected to make $9.2 million and $10.1 million, respectively. Schoop's struggles after the trade and a lack of a role with the Brewers make that a steep price and opens the possibility of a nontender, but the Orioles likely wouldn't have been in that position unless they were particularly cold.

What the Orioles put themselves in position to do with that flurry of July 31 trade action was to shave an estimated $28.3 million off next year's payroll, and likely another $11 million to 12 million for Gausman's final year of salary arbitration in 2020.

But from a business standpoint — especially with next month's hearing on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network rights fees dispute with the Washington Nationals calling into question how much revenue the Orioles will get from their television network going forward — chopping over a quarter of their salary commitments off the books in one swoop makes things a little more palatable for the club. When former executive vice president Dan Duquette announced the club’s rebuild in earnest after they traded Machado, he said resources would be diverted from major league payroll to upgrading other facets of the organization, from international and pro scouting to analytics. In the nearest term, this is what that looks like.

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-salary-arbitration-projections-20181011-story.html

[Tony-OH]

Not really surprising here. Let's face it, the Orioles are a tough sell to anyone, but almost an impossible sell over Miami to a couple of young Cubans.

I talked with a scout who was down there for the showcase and he felt all three were good players. The only surprise was that he said the younger Mesa was "not that far away" from the older brother talent wise.

I guess there is hope the Orioles can still sign Gaston.

[Mondo Trasho]

I understand there's an expiration on the slot money. But, the O's are definitely going to sign someone with the money, right? Even if it's not a premium level guy, I'd really like for them to at least use it, even on random international players if necessary.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Not really surprising here. Let's face it, the Orioles are a tough sell to anyone, but almost an impossible sell over Miami to a couple of young Cubans.

I talked with a scout who was down there for the showcase and he felt all three were good players. The only surprise was that he said the younger Mesa was "not that far away" from the older brother talent wise.

I guess there is hope the Orioles can still sign Gaston.

Roch makes a case, where they have the most money to spend, now that the Marlins have the Mesa boys.

Might as well toss the 6 million at him and not walk away empty handed.

Cant say, that I am thrilled for this current set of pitching coaches in the system to work with him.

[Ohfan67]

43 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Roch makes a case, where they have the most money to spend, now that the Marlins have the Mesa boys.

Might as well toss the 6 million at him and not walk away empty handed.

Cant say, that I am thrilled for this current set of pitching coaches in the system to work with him.

That would be incredibly dumb. Gaston is not a six million dollar prospect. Heck, Mesa was not really a six million dollar prospect. The slot can only be used for international free agents, but the money is money from the Orioles budget. Don't make things worse by flushing several million dollars down the toilet. The Orioles routinely blow cash in three million dollar increments on bad ideas. They should value Gaston appropriately to his real potential, maybe overpay a LITTLE if necessary, but those are real dollars that can be used to expand scouting, analytics, etc. Don't flush them down the toilet. 

[jsbearr]

28 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

That would be incredibly dumb. Gaston is not a six million dollar prospect. Heck, Mesa was not really a six million dollar prospect. The slot can only be used for international free agents, but the money is money from the Orioles budget. Don't make things worse by flushing several million dollars down the toilet. The Orioles routinely blow cash in three million dollar increments on bad ideas. They should value Gaston appropriately to his real potential, maybe overpay a LITTLE if necessary, but those are real dollars that can be used to expand scouting, analytics, etc. Don't flush them down the toilet. 

We all should remember that prospect value is highly regulated based on restrictive systems.  Mesa was worth about 15-20 MM and he would have seen something like that if there was not a governor on the market.  Teams pay about 8 to 10 MM for a single win and Mesa's baseline is a defensive 4th outfielder.  There is a decent chance for a good surplus there even with his limited ceiling.

If Gaston was HSer, he would be a guy who would go to college or sign for a two million as an overslot in the draft.  His real value is probably around four or five million.  However, talent is not limitless.  There is only so much, so you could easily argue that he is worth more than that now as the market currently presents itself.

[TonySoprano]

How long before Jeter trades them to the Yankees?

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, TonySoprano said:

How long before Jeter trades them to the Yankees?

I said 2 weeks ago, 2-3 years, Jeter will have them gone to the MFY.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

That would be incredibly dumb. Gaston is not a six million dollar prospect. Heck, Mesa was not really a six million dollar prospect. The slot can only be used for international free agents, but the money is money from the Orioles budget. Don't make things worse by flushing several million dollars down the toilet. The Orioles routinely blow cash in three million dollar increments on bad ideas. They should value Gaston appropriately to his real potential, maybe overpay a LITTLE if necessary, but those are real dollars that can be used to expand scouting, analytics, etc. Don't flush them down the toilet. 

Is that how it works, though? I'm under the impression you can't use international bonus pool money for anything but, you know, signing international players. I don't think you can just decide we have nearly 7M international bonus dollars, lets dump it into scouting.

[TGO]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

Is that how it works, though? I'm under the impression you can't use international bonus pool money for anything but, you know, signing international players. I don't think you can just decide we have nearly 7M international bonus dollars, lets dump it into scouting.

Calling it a bonus pool is a little misleading, but that's what everyone calls it. It's a cap on how much you can spend on international FA bonuses. It's still the Orioles' money. They can spend it or not on anything they choose, except that they can't spend more than they are allowed on international FAs.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Is that how it works, though? I'm under the impression you can't use international bonus pool money for anything but, you know, signing international players. I don't think you can just decide we have nearly 7M international bonus dollars, lets dump it into scouting.

TGO nailed it. It's a spending cap. It's just money from your budget. 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, TGO said:

Calling it a bonus pool is a little misleading, but that's what everyone calls it. It's a cap on how much you can spend on international FA bonuses. It's still the Orioles' money. They can spend it or not on anything they choose, except that they can't spend more than they are allowed on international FAs.

That's not really true. They can't spend it on ML players from what I read in the CBA regarding the pool money.

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, jsbearr said:

We all should remember that prospect value is highly regulated based on restrictive systems.  Mesa was worth about 15-20 MM and he would have seen something like that if there was not a governor on the market.  Teams pay about 8 to 10 MM for a single win and Mesa's baseline is a defensive 4th outfielder.  There is a decent chance for a good surplus there even with his limited ceiling.

If Gaston was HSer, he would be a guy who would go to college or sign for a two million as an overslot in the draft.  His real value is probably around four or five million.  However, talent is not limitless.  There is only so much, so you could easily argue that he is worth more than that now as the market currently presents itself.

Bolded part: No way. Underlined part: You say "baseline". That's his floor as a prospect. That is not the baseline probability of what his career will produce. The probability that he will produce one win in his career is not 1, it is less than 1. There's a decent chance that he doesn't produce one win (he gets hurt, he can't hit enough to make the majors for more than a cup of coffee, etc.). And the goal is to pay young players far less per win than you do free agents. The 8 - 10 million per win is not the goal with young players. If you want to pay 8 million for one win, then you sign Adam Jones in the offseason. You don't invest 15 to 20 million for the CHANCE to get a fourth outfielder in a few years. You are mixing a Fangraphs type analysis of the cost of WAR with financial reality associated with prospects. They are not the same thing. 

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

That's not really true. They can't spend it on ML players from what I read in the CBA regarding the pool money.

Huh? The money is not in some special bank account and MLB takes it away if you don't spend it. If the Orioles don't spend the money, then they don't reduce next year's operating budget by that amount.