Orioles Top 50 Prospects - Midseason Edition...now including the Gausman/Schoop returns

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/07/30/orioles-top-50-prospects-ms2018/

My personal top 50, newly updated.

Sorry for the delay, the trade deadline excitement (plus real world responsibilities) got in the way.

All prospects acquired in the Manny Machado and Zach Britton deals are included and I've watched a some game video of each.

Questions, comments, and criticism are all welcome.

Nice write up .... I'd have Tate a little higher but I don't really feel that the order is important.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Brilliant content, I enjoy your passion for the game and I am quite pleased you invest that passion in studying our system. In a season of lost hopes and lost stars, we find a bit of rejuvenation for the soul in learning more about our system.

Fangraphs gives a 50 to their #37 player in baseball and everyone below him in their top 131. There are only 131 prospects that are a 50 or better for them - while that is a tough grading scale, if we have 13 guys who can be reasonably argued for in the top 200, we may have the foundation for something that can endure. 

Mid you would be so kind as to indulge me, where would Witt and VVMesa rank if you plugged them in today?

VVM would be 4th. Witt I can’t really say because a haven’t studied him enough.

Fangraphs grades are much stingier than most, but my grading system should compare reasonable well with Baseball Prospectus, 2080 baseball, and Baseball America (with BA the risk is pulled out of the grade, with mine it’s baked in).

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

Solid list.  Our depth is looking a lot better than it did coming into the season with the trades, draft,  and surprise development of some of our younger guys.  

Two questions for you.

1) Are you still planning on release a list of fringe prospects, guys who don't get talked about but maybe, maybe, if all goes right, and with a little luck, might crack an MLB roster one day?  I remember you talking about it earlier in the year.

and 2) To help me envision the depth of the system a little more.  Can you list the guys you considered for the last few spots of this top 50?  I'm hoping its 15-20 deep, no need for write ups, just want to see who just missed.

1. I’ve been busier than expected, some of those are still coming, but they’ll likely be 40s/35s from the list, just getting a full scouting report treatment.

2. I’m sure I’ll miss some guys here, but there are a bunch just a step above Non Prospect (grade 30, org player) who could’ve been on the back of the list.

Chris Clare, Doran Turchin, Clay Fisher, Cody Roberts, Jake Ring, Cole Billingsley, Jhon Peluffo, Lucas Long, Drew Dosch, Will Robertson, Jamie Escara, Tim Naughton, Tyler Erwin, Christian Alvarado, Brian Gonzalez, Luis Perez, Randolph Gassaway, Branden Becker.

The backend of the list was definitely harder than it has ever been.

[Luke-OH]

Add Neustrom to that last post.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Tony had McKenna at 28 in the rankings he did in November and matched your enthusiasm for Hall at 5 in those same rankings. That’s why I put more value in those who focus on our system than the national guys when it comes to Orioles prospects.

The lone disappointment for me is Fenter. I still have hopes for him out of the pen, the velocity still seems to be there, perhaps something will click for him. Then again, that arm at #40 and the power of Curran (could be a movie title) at 37 can be viewed as encouraging signs as to the depth that is being built. It wasn’t long ago that our number 40 prospect wouldn’t be a convincing enough baseball player to be an extra in an indi film about the 1988 O’s.

Tony and I are pretty much on the similar page on most of these guys, we worked on that list together (except Nick Vespi). I should have said we were the only ones with McKenna, thank you for the correction.

 

Both Chris and @Tony-OH also had him in their individual top 30s, I was the high man on McKenna if I remember correctly, but OH was pretty much in unison that he was worth paying attention to. All of the national outlets missed him is what I meant.

[Luke-OH]

I was also the high man on Peluffo so, I screwed up there.

[ScGO's]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The backend of the list was definitely harder than it has ever been.

That's what I was hoping to hear.  I'll tell ya, if we can pull off solid trades for Gausman, Bundy, Givens, and Schoop between now and next season and sign Victor Victor, we become a top 10 milb system.  Add the high end draft picks next year and we might be Top 5 by this time next year.

[LookinUp]

There’s some discussion on Flaa in the minors forum. He’s sort of old and didn’t make the top 50. Do you have a profile on him?

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I was also the high man on Peluffo so, I screwed up there.

Ha, we all have our guy sometimes. Although I will say Muckenhirm is back on the radar, I was the only guy on earth who had him in the top 20 a few years ago and he went out and bombed last year. 

The system is a lot deeper than in the past and although we'll certainly discuss the final rankings when it's all said and done, this is a fantastic list. I could only find some nitpicks here and there from my perspective, but this is the best list on the internet for the Orioles by and far! 

As usual, superb work. I know there was a reason you are the only guy I've ever let definitively discuss prospects for the Hangout besides me!

You are awesome!

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

That's what I was hoping to hear.  I'll tell ya, if we can pull off solid trades for Gausman, Bundy, Givens, and Schoop between now and next season and sign Victor Victor, we become a top 10 milb system.  Add the high end draft picks next year and we might be Top 5 by this time next year.

If this all happens we better have one of the best farm systems because all of the players have value and relatively cheap control.

[joelala]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/07/30/orioles-top-50-prospects-ms2018/

My personal top 50, newly updated.

Sorry for the delay, the trade deadline excitement (plus real world responsibilities) got in the way.

All prospects acquired in the Manny Machado and Zach Britton deals are included and I've watched a some game video of each.

Questions, comments, and criticism are all welcome.

Most comprehensive analysis I've read on our prospects.  Much, much appreciated! 

I think I'm most excited to see what Tate does, and agree with your somewhat lower than national consensus ranking on him.

[Thato'sfan]

@Luke-OH you mentioned Mountcastle has improved at third. Is there any chance he sticks there? Could he play second?

[Luke-OH]

34 minutes ago, Thato'sfan said:

@Luke-OH you mentioned Mountcastle has improved at third. Is there any chance he sticks there? Could he play second?

Depends on your bar for defense at those positions, if it’s “better than Wilson Betemit” then he’ll definitely stick. I’m still maybe 50/50 on him being playable there. He’s not going to be good at either, but maybe fringe average if he continues to improve.

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

Luke, Great write-up.   We are lucky to have you on the Hangout.

Question:  Why does Mullins rank above McKenna?

I see three flaws with Mullins at the moment:

1) Fringy arm that may make him a left fielder or 4th OFer at some point.

2) Not hitting in the 2nd half.  Happened last year and is happening this year.

3) Not hitting lefties at AAA.

McKenna has a better arm though only average overall.  He is two years younger and has more time to correct his flaws.  Hit both righties and lefties at Frederick. He is still adjusting to AA.

I think both guys are lead off hitter types.  Their power will not keep them in the majors.  Their ability to get on base will.

Interested to understand your thinking on this one.

I try not to react too much to short term trends like a slump.

Cedric Mullins was ranked higher for a couple reasons, but like I’ve said before they are both 50s so it’s understandable to rank them in a different order.

1. Closer to MLB ready

2. More game power currently and a swing better suited for XBH.

3. Better defensive CF currently

4. Better hit tool currently

McKenna is younger and has more upside and may surpass Mullins in all these things eventually. But there is much more risk, because you have to project those improvements. I like McKenna a lot, there is just more risk in the profile.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I try not to react too much to short term trends like a slump.

Cedric Mullins was ranked higher for a couple reasons, but like I’ve said before they are both 50s so it’s understandable to rank them in a different order.

1. Closer to MLB ready

2. More game power currently and a swing better suited for XBH.

3. Better defensive CF currently

4. Better hit tool currently

McKenna is younger and has more upside and may surpass Mullins in all these things eventually. But there is much more risk, because you have to project those improvements. I like McKenna a lot, there is just more risk in the profile.

Thanks for the explanation.   Personally, I see more risk in Mullins.  His pattern of  not hitting in the 2nd half,  his weak arm and his not hitting lefties at AAA  show more risk to me than a 21 year old McKenna who has more upside.

Either one can improve but Mullins is starting to look like a platoon 4th outfielder to me.   I hope he does better than that.