Grade the Gausman Deal

[TonySoprano]

19 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll follow that up with 39-51 on teams that were mostly winners, too. 

I know, I know, I know, someone's gonna pull out their WAR trump card like they're all high and mighty, just save it.  4.1 WAR on a playoff team where he went 9-12.  Nice ERA+ of 119 but the rest of the seasons have been pretty underwhelming.

I thought pitchers weren't judged on their W/L record here in the age of advanced stats.  Be that as it may, the 2016 team won 89 games, but only one pitcher had double digit wins as a starter, Chris Tillman (16).  Bundy was 8-5 in games started.  Brach won 10 games, all in relief. 

I would've preferred we sent Gausman to Colorado, but Atlanta was likely the only contending team that O'Day would agree to go in his salary dump.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

I thought pitchers weren't judged on their W/L record here in the age of advanced stats.  Be that as it may, the 2016 team won 89 games, but only one pitcher had double digit wins as a starter, Chris Tillman (16).  Bundy was 8-5 in games started.  Brach won 10 games, all in relief. 

I would've preferred we sent Gausman to Colorado, but Atlanta was likely the only contending team that O'Day would agree to go in his salary dump.

I know, it's such a luddite thing to look at.  Wins and losses!  How 1975 of me. 

I think it's still a good stat but doesn't always (obviously) tell the whole story.

[Flacco Machado]

On 8/11/2018 at 3:15 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Terrible pitching, too.  Terrible coaching and player development.

Someone, anyone, explain to me how Gausman was absolutely indispensable.  I'd love to know.  Was anyone able to objectively look at that guy and see a future Cy Young award winner?  A top of the rotation starter?  All Star?  Wins leader, strikeout leader?  ERA leader?  IP leader?   

No, no, no, no, no, no, and no.

What'd Gausman do especially well while he was here?  How is he any different than someone else's 3 or 4 starter?  Why's everyone around here so butthurt about losing a #3 starter for a team that probably won't be any good for the next 2-3 seasons and is going through a rebuild?  Why is the Kevin Gausman trade such a stupid trade when there's absolutely nothing unique about him?

I saw a guy with a hard fastball that was straight as an arrow with spotty command and spotty command of his secondary pitches.  Yeah, he's got an impressive arm but so do a lot of others, guys in the high 90s aren't hard to find these days.  Sometimes he looked great, sometimes he didn't.  That's the definition of a #3 starter.  

People are so afraid that it'll be another Arrieta situation.  Whatever.  First, let's stop pretending like we're the only fanbase to ever give up on a guy to go on and have success elsewhere.  I'm pretty sure every fanbase outside of the Yankees and Sox mopes around with this woe is us crap and thinking that they're the ones that have a unique problem of giving up on players who go on to have good careers elsewhere.  Just.  Stop.  We're not special snowflakes like we think we are.

The thing about Arrieta is that it wasn't ever going to happen here for him.  So if Gausman goes to to Atlanta and wins a Cy Young, we'll know that it wasn't going to happen here for him, either.  And we'll know what we've known all along, that this franchise has sucked for years and player development, especially pitching.  So if we can agree that it would never have happened here for Arrieta and never would have happened here for Gausman, why's everyone pearl clutching?  

I really don't get it, someone clue me in.  Why's everyone so petrified of another Arrieta situation when we all know Arrieta never could have achieved those heights here?  What's the outcome you'd have preferred, holding onto Arrieta and just screwing him up more?  So what if Gausman goes to the Braves and lights it up, he wasn't going to do it here, right?  Adair, Peterson, Wallace, McDowell all couldn't get through to him and bring to life this magical pitching God that the OH braintrust has been glorifying for years.

The only measure of hope would be to hire a pitching coach in the offseason that could have made a difference for him.  That's it.  And hope isn't a plan.

Excellent post!

[Frobby]

I’d also like to point out that even if Gausman pitches well for the rest of the year, I won’t necessarily attribute it to better coaching in Atlanta.  He has a history of pitching well in August (3.55 career ERA) and September (3.44).

[wildcard]

On 8/11/2018 at 3:15 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Terrible pitching, too.  Terrible coaching and player development.

Someone, anyone, explain to me how Gausman was absolutely indispensable.  I'd love to know.  Was anyone able to objectively look at that guy and see a future Cy Young award winner?  A top of the rotation starter?  All Star?  Wins leader, strikeout leader?  ERA leader?  IP leader?   

No, no, no, no, no, no, and no.

What'd Gausman do especially well while he was here?  How is he any different than someone else's 3 or 4 starter?  Why's everyone around here so butthurt about losing a #3 starter for a team that probably won't be any good for the next 2-3 seasons and is going through a rebuild?  Why is the Kevin Gausman trade such a stupid trade when there's absolutely nothing unique about him?

I saw a guy with a hard fastball that was straight as an arrow with spotty command and spotty command of his secondary pitches.  Yeah, he's got an impressive arm but so do a lot of others, guys in the high 90s aren't hard to find these days.  Sometimes he looked great, sometimes he didn't.  That's the definition of a #3 starter.  

People are so afraid that it'll be another Arrieta situation.  Whatever.  First, let's stop pretending like we're the only fanbase to ever give up on a guy to go on and have success elsewhere.  I'm pretty sure every fanbase outside of the Yankees and Sox mopes around with this woe is us crap and thinking that they're the ones that have a unique problem of giving up on players who go on to have good careers elsewhere.  Just.  Stop.  We're not special snowflakes like we think we are.

The thing about Arrieta is that it wasn't ever going to happen here for him.  So if Gausman goes to to Atlanta and wins a Cy Young, we'll know that it wasn't going to happen here for him, either.  And we'll know what we've known all along, that this franchise has sucked for years and player development, especially pitching.  So if we can agree that it would never have happened here for Arrieta and never would have happened here for Gausman, why's everyone pearl clutching?  

I really don't get it, someone clue me in.  Why's everyone so petrified of another Arrieta situation when we all know Arrieta never could have achieved those heights here?  What's the outcome you'd have preferred, holding onto Arrieta and just screwing him up more?  So what if Gausman goes to the Braves and lights it up, he wasn't going to do it here, right?  Adair, Peterson, Wallace, McDowell all couldn't get through to him and bring to life this magical pitching God that the OH braintrust has been glorifying for years.

The only measure of hope would be to hire a pitching coach in the offseason that could have made a difference for him.  That's it.  And hope isn't a plan.

I think the trade of Gausman and Schoop moved the rebuild from  3 years to contend to 5 years to contend.  Let's set Schoop aside and concentrate on the Gausman trade.

Gausman was a core player for the O's.  Probably a solid #2 on most clubs with the stuff to become a #1.   Yes, his results over the last two years have been more like a #3 or 4.   But is that his fault?   I don't think so.  The O's failed to put a decent defense behind him for the last  2 years and a terrible offense  and pen in 2018.  That will make a starters numbers fall.

Gausman has a 3.57 ERA in 2014 in 20 starts.  He has a 3.61 ERA in 2016 in 30 starts.  In 2016 and 2017 he was right around 180 innings pitched.   That's a number 2 on most clubs.  Not Houston, Boston or Cleveland but  for most clubs.  So the defense goes to crap in 2017 and 2018 and we a supposed to blame Gausman. Its not his fault the  team can't catch the ball, has poor range and can't turn the double plays they should.    And when the team can't score 3 runs a game then  starters have to be fkmore fine with their pitches.   It effects how they pitch.  Not just Gausman but any starter that is trying to win.

So the O's are rebuilding.  They have to do one of two things with Gausman to reduce the rebuild time.   1) Sign him to a 5 year extension for in 28-32 age seasons.  That way he is in place when the are ready to contend in 3 years.  or 3) trade him for someone that will be as good as he is in three years.     The O's did neither.  That is why the Gausman trade is a bad trade in my opinion.   

None of Cumberland, Encarnacion, Zimmerman  or Phillips are top 100 prospect.  Gausman was.  And he was a  top of the rotation starter when he have a decent defense and offense  supporting him.   So the O's got 2.5m in slot money.  No one is sending they any dollars.   That just get the ability to spend 2.5m of their money  on  international players.   Will any of those players be top 100 prospects?   Will they make the majors and have an impact in the next  3 years?    Keeping Gausman or a better trade  would have had better odds of helping the O's become a contender in 3 years than what they did.

What was the hurry on trading Gausman anyway.   Couldn't they have held out of the better  deal over the winter.

So the O's save money by trading Gausman and O'Day.  So what.   If the O's did nothing but not resign their 2018 free agents 60m was coming off the payroll.   And in  2019 with Cashner, Trumbo  and O'day coming off the books they  drop another 32m.     I don't see the need to do a salary dump on O'Day and Gausman.

If the O's keep Bundy, Gausman and Cobb they would have had the making on a good top of the rotation in 3 years.   I only see two prospects  that the O's have that project to be a top of the rotation starter.  DL Hall who is projected to make the major in 2021 and Rodriguez in 2022.    Under normal conditions they can't be expected to be a their peak for at least two years after their arrival. So maybe TOR starters by 2023 and 2024.  That is 5 and 6 years away.  

That is why I see the rebuild without Gausman and Schoop be a 5 year process to return to contention.   The Gausman trade in my opinion did not get enough in return.   It made a 3 year return to contention more unlikely.

 

[ORIOLE33]

I have no idea what you expected the O’s to Get for Gausman. He simply isn’t that good.  

[Aristotelian]

Look, I agree the inclusion of O'Day is a red flag that budget was a factor. However, we don't know what other deals were on the table that the O's passed up. Gausman has zero value to us while we are rebuilding and everyone knows it, and he will not be a bargain after this year.

Part of rebuilding is getting rid of bad contracts. If O'Day's $12M goes into the bank and turns into 2+ WAR in 2021 or 2022, it will be worth it.

It seems nobody was willing to do their top prospects. Most of the contending teams were already set at positions where we could offer upgrades. Would have been nice to get Meadows and Glasnow from the Pirates, but it is possible (likely) that they preferred Archer.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Look, I agree the inclusion of O'Day is a red flag that budget was a factor. However, we don't know what other deals were on the table that the O's passed up. Gausman has zero value to us while we are rebuilding and everyone knows it, and he will not be a bargain after this year.

Part of rebuilding is getting rid of bad contracts. If O'Day's $12M goes into the bank and turns into 2+ WAR in 2021 or 2022, it will be worth it.

It seems nobody was willing to do their top prospects. Most of the contending teams were already set at positions where we could offer upgrades. Would have been nice to get Meadows and Glasnow from the Pirates, but it is possible (likely) that they preferred Archer.

Why did Gausman have to be traded at the deadline/  This winter any of 29 teams might have been bidding on Gausman.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

I have no idea what you expected the O’s to Get for Gausman. He simply isn’t that good.  

That is where you and I disagree.   Gausman is a #2 and may become a #1 on a good team.  He was held back by a bad defense, offense and pen.  Watch what happens with the Braves.

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is where you and I disagree.   Gausman is a #2 and may become a #1 on a good team.  He was held back by a bad defense, offense and pen.  Watch what happens with the Braves.

So he became all of that while backed by the bad O's...but showed the same flash of up and down on the good Os?  I think you are looking through lenses of fandom.  He has always shown the ability to be a 1 or 2.  But has never really gotten it all together.  He may in Atlanta..sure.  But you make it sound like the Oriole bad Offense, defense and pen have tarnished him.  That's balderdash.  He has done plenty of that himself.  With and without the help of his crappy supporting cast.

[NCRaven]

I think the trade accomplished a number of positives.  It unloaded two large contracts for 2019, Gausman's and O'Days.  Rebuilding teams need to minimize salaries.  It brought back a large international bonus allotment that should enable them to bring in at least one major international signing.  Brought back a talented young 3rd baseman that isn't a "Top 100" prospect now but could develop into one in the near future.  The other players could play roles on an MLB roster although I doubt any turn into regulars.

On top of that, I'm just not that into Gausman.  Maybe Atlanta can tweak his pitch usage, i.e. more split fingers and less fastballs, etc., but I doubt that there's much that they can do with how well or poorly he commands those pitches.  Maybe in the era of "openers" they turn him into a four innings "second" pitcher.  But, I'm fine with the trade and return.

[baltfan]

Best comp for me for Gausman is Nate Evoldi.  Throws really hard but somehow the fastball doesn't seem to fool anyone as much as you would expect.  Has periods of dominance where you think he will break through.  Ultimately never quite turns into the pitcher you would think he could be.  

That said, I didn't like the trade.  Should have gotten better prospects. 

[Ruzious]

23 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Best comp for me for Gausman is Nate Evoldi.  Throws really hard but somehow the fastball doesn't seem to fool anyone as much as you would expect.  Has periods of dominance where you think he will break through.  Ultimately never quite turns into the pitcher you would think he could be.  

That said, I didn't like the trade.  Should have gotten better prospects. 

There's no getting around the fact that including O'Day in it hurt the haul the O's got - which is very unfortunate for O's fans, imo.  I wish we could know what the trade would have been without O'Day.  O's certainly should have gotten a good pitching prospect.  Quality is much more important than quantity - and the O's settled for quantity.  But again, O's got $250,000 in international dollars, and what they do with that could make the trade reasonable.  

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why did Gausman have to be traded at the deadline/  This winter any of 29 teams might have been bidding on Gausman.

Lol, everyone said "Britton should have been traded at the deadline last year. Why did the Orioles wait so long?" OH is a tough crowd to please.

 

[Redskins Rick]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is where you and I disagree.   Gausman is a #2 and may become a #1 on a good team.  He was held back by a bad defense, offense and pen.  Watch what happens with the Braves.

He was held by, by not being able to locate his fastball as well as he should have. Gausman never became all that he could become. For whatever reason.

His best WAR was 2016, and a decent offense and defense behind him, but he was still 9-12 on a playoff team.

He never ever became the TOR that he was hyped to be.

Yes, in the NL, facing weaker lineups and the pitcher batting, and away from the AL East, he is likely to do pretty well for them.