An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[baltfan]

I don’t pretend to be a scout and would love to hear from someone more knowledgeable.  That highlight film just doesn’t blow me away.  Doesn’t mean he isn’t great or is the wrong choice but he doesn’t impress me as a hitter like Riley Greene does, for instance.  

[Luke-OH]

40 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I don’t pretend to be a scout and would love to hear from someone more knowledgeable.  That highlight film just doesn’t blow me away.  Doesn’t mean he isn’t great or is the wrong choice but he doesn’t impress me as a hitter like Riley Greene does, for instance.  

If you were to say that Riley Greene projects to be a better hitter than Rutschman, you’d be correct. Plus, Greene has probably the prettiest swing in the draft.

One difference is that Greene is going to be a corner outfielder and Rutschman is going to be an average or better defensive catcher. The wRC+ for catchers league wide in 2018 was 84, and 102 and 106 respectively for LF and RF. Another difference is that video is against the best college teams in the country, the competition level is comparable to short season A ball at least and maybe Low A in the College World Series. There is a lot less risk of him not reaching his projected profile of being a 60 FV catcher because he’s shown he can handle that type of pitching. Also, most of the video of Greene is batting practice, Rutschman can and does air it out in batting practice too, he does cut down on his swing situationally. 

So in short, Greene equals more risk, less positional value, more bat if everything works out, but much more development required than Rutschman.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

If you were to say that Riley Greene projects to be a better hitter than Rutschman, you’d be correct. Plus, Greene has probably the prettiest swing in the draft.

One difference is that Greene is going to be a corner outfielder and Rutschman is going to be an average or better defensive catcher. The wRC+ for catchers league wide in 2018 was 84, and 102 and 106 respectively for LF and RF. Another difference is that video is against the best college teams in the country, the competition level is comparable to short season A ball at least and maybe Low A in the College World Series. There is a lot less risk of him not reaching his projected profile of being a 60 FV catcher because he’s shown he can handle that type of pitching. Also, most of the video of Greene is batting practice, Rutschman can and does air it out in batting practice too, he does cut down on his swing situationally. 

So in short, Greene equals more risk, less positional value, more bat if everything works out, but much more development required than Rutschman.

 Thanks for this. You make some excellent points. For the record I was in advocating taking Green, just noting that he was a guy that when you see him hit it’s easy to see the projection. 

I think like everyone else I want this to be an obvious decision.  That is probably why I had the reaction I did.  It is obvious there are times he is cutting down on his swing and that is a good thing. 

[MachoMachadoMan]

Grenier was interviewed at the Winter Meetings and raved about Rutschman. It's what you would expect from a friend and a teammate, but it is nice to hear a personal side to all of the statistical analysis

Quote

“I tell everybody, I would love to have Adley with the first pick and be in our organization,” Grenier said. “I was just talking to somebody the other day. If we have me and him back together, that’s a really good middle ... just to start. And with the guys that I’ve played with and some of the outfielders we have, you could create a real good middle of the field with me, Adley and a couple of those other guys.

“Rutsch is a beast. I can’t wait to see what he’s going to do this year and I hope to get to play with him soon. He’s another guy. He’s a great dude to be around the clubhouse. He had a lot of fun and works his butt off. And when the time comes to be serious, he can be as serious as anybody, but when we’re off the field and stuff, he’s just a good dude and I’d tell that to anybody.”

...

“He does stuff like that all the time. You’re kind of like, ‘OK, come on, dude.’ Mostly, his defense is incredible behind the plate and then add that to being a .400 hitter in the Pac 12 and being a switch-hitter, the dude is really impressive. I love the kid to death.”

 

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

 Thanks for this. You make some excellent points. For the record I was in advocating taking Green, just noting that he was a guy that when you see him hit it’s easy to see the projection. 

I think like everyone else I want this to be an obvious decision.  That is probably why I had the reaction I did.  It is obvious there are times he is cutting down on his swing and that is a good thing. 

Riley Green should not be the pick at 1:1. I’ve seen him live. Nice fluid swing, and more power later, but not a premium athlete or position. Not to be considered a comp, but Mickey Moniak has a great swing too. Philly took him at 1:1 in 2016. It’s still early, but not what you’d hope for on a return from 1:1. Although Moniak is more athletic and plays CF, where Riley is a corner guy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=moniak000mic

[joelala]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mauer without power?

I supposed Mauer is actually a pretty good comp.  And yea, I would take a Joe Mauer in a second.

[joelala]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

If you were to say that Riley Greene projects to be a better hitter than Rutschman, you’d be correct. Plus, Greene has probably the prettiest swing in the draft.

One difference is that Greene is going to be a corner outfielder and Rutschman is going to be an average or better defensive catcher. The wRC+ for catchers league wide in 2018 was 84, and 102 and 106 respectively for LF and RF. Another difference is that video is against the best college teams in the country, the competition level is comparable to short season A ball at least and maybe Low A in the College World Series. There is a lot less risk of him not reaching his projected profile of being a 60 FV catcher because he’s shown he can handle that type of pitching. Also, most of the video of Greene is batting practice, Rutschman can and does air it out in batting practice too, he does cut down on his swing situationally. 

So in short, Greene equals more risk, less positional value, more bat if everything works out, but much more development required than Rutschman.

Nice post, great points as always. 

[Cumberbundy]

Looking ahead, could blaze be the generational talent Baltimore needs? 

 

Trumbo swing

 

 

[joelala]

13 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Looking ahead, could blaze be the generational talent Baltimore needs? 

 

Trumbo swing

 

 

Based on his name alone, yes. 

[Jammer7]

12 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Looking ahead, could blaze be the generational talent Baltimore needs?

It’s big power in BP, yeah. Long way to go, but worth following certainly. He’s not very athletic, soft looking body. A 1B. We’ll see,  it I’m not that excited about him right now.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

It’s big power in BP, yeah. Long way to go, but worth following certainly. He’s not very athletic, soft looking body. A 1B. We’ll see,  it I’m not that excited about him right now.

That is my concern, he's right handed, 6'1" 215 at 15 and already a 1B.  The bat is going to have to be very special.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is my concern, he's right handed, 6'1" 215 at 15 and already a 1B.  The bat is going to have to be very special.

Well, not many humans can hit a baseball 500 feet, in BP or any other time.    Whether he’ll make solid contact against major league stuff is anybody’s guess at this point.    In any event, I’ll worry about it in 2021.

[Whammer]

2 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

Looking ahead, could blaze be the generational talent Baltimore needs? 

 

Trumbo swing

 

 

= Pete Incaviglia 

[cnmilton]

Ruschmann has done it on the big stage of College World series, but I still am really enthralled with all I have read about Bobby Witt Jr. I think he will be a special player.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Ruschmann has done it on the big stage of College World series, but I still am really enthralled with all I have read about Bobby Witt Jr. I think he will be a special player.

So has Cadyn Grenier but I'm not holding my breath on him being a big leaguer.