Orioles set record for futility, will Buck survive?

[bobmc]

4 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Buck should go tomorrow. 

I believe that there is another Buck Showgarter sox giveaway before the end of the year.  He can go after that event.  

[LookitsPuck]

14 hours ago, foxfield said:

Serious question here....

Given what we have been told about the Orioles dysfunctional FO...since 2014.   The point above does not make sense to me.  I most definitely can accept an argument that DD must also go, but I cannot under any device see that if Buck goes, DD does as well.  Could you elaborate?  

I am assuming...dangerous...that you believe DD should go under any circumstance.  That's ok.   And I am also assuming that you would prefer Buck stay under any circumstance.  Is this correct?

In my humble opinion, Buck has to go and I am a big fan of Buck  It is just not working anymore.  Furthermore, if Buck were to stay...the only circumstance that would not immediately spell doom for the franchise would be if a GM were hired and he genuinely wanted Buck to stay.  I do not see any GM making that call unless that call is made by DD as an extended GM.  If the FO announced extensions of Buck and DD simultaneously then we could all assume safely that the dysfunctional FO was not a concern of ownership regardless of who was in charge.  Further, it would signal to all that in spite of obvious problems, the Orioles were just fine with the status quo and that the changes we are seeing were solely about finances.

So, I guess I am trying to understand your logic...as I really cannot imagine a workable solution to Buck remaining as manager.  And I cannot imagine a less complicated scenario than DD himself being extended and saying he can do this with Buck.   I have said before I am fine with cleaning house.  But I could also accept DD staying.  It is imperative however that the Orioles name a GM, give that person a budget and full control over the baseball operations of the franchise and get this rebuild going.  That rebuilding absolutely has to include the choice of who manages the club.

Rebuilding this club around Buck would be as foolish as rebuilding it around 2015 Chris Davis.  

I think the thing here is that if you truly believe that "it's just not working anymore" with Buck, then why can't that same logic apply to Duquette? After all, they're similarly tenured with the Orioles. Similar success with them as well. And similar lack of success over the last couple years as well. And as much dysfunction as there is...don't you think there was similar negative effects downstream to Buck (that also Duquette endured)?

I guess my biggest thing here...is that I don't think the Orioles as constructed would win many more under any other manager. For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette. When you look at just how much seemingly every part of this roster has regressed (either due to age, random chance and/or whatever else)...I just can't fault Buck for most of it. The bullpen doesn't have a reliable arm in it. And the only reliable arm was only for part of the season (Richard Bleier). 

There are currently *2* active and healthy Oriole pitchers that have an ERA under 4.00. Can you guess them? It's Miguel Castro (3.86) and Paul Fry (3.32). That's it. Nobody in the starting rotation has an ERA under 4.70 (Bundy). 

The offense has *one* regular with an OPS over .742 and that's Mark Trumbo. They scored the 6th least runs per game in all of MLB with 3.95. 

They allow the 2nd most runs per game in all of MLB with 5.42.

Total WAR is -16.3. 2nd worst in all of MLB. 

For defense, they're dead last in defensive efficiency. They're 26th in fielding percentage. 2nd worst in RA/G. 

I just don't understand how that's not nearly entirely a talent issue. And as are as I'm aware...the 25/40 man rosters are Duquette's responsibility (even if there's some weird Duquette/Brady/Buck thing going on).

All that said, I agree mostly with your post. I personally think that Dan Duquette should have been let go years ago (I think the time to do it was after the 2015 season). But that aside, I do think they need to clean house at this point. And I love Buck. And there might be a world where the new GM comes on and wants to keep Buck around, but I don't see that happening. I'd imagine any new GM would want stipulations up front that they get to pick their own staff. And unless they 100% think Buck is the manager for them, I just can't see this situation being realistic.

[Bradysburns]

Tough question for me. I would have to know a few things first:

- Does Buck want to come back? He's getting older, and he's been very successful in the booth. Does he still have the fire, and the willingness to keep learning from his mistakes? 

- Is DD staying, and does DD want him to stay? 

- Does Buck want to oversee a ground-up rebuild? If so, I think he's be a great man to entrust with the development of our young players. 

On the main, I would be open to Buck returning.

I don't believe he came here a genius and somehow became a bad manager here. I would look more at the rosters and how we've stockpiled guys like Trumbo, Davis and others -- one-dimensional players, usually with poor defense.

I think Buck's more than capable of winning with a good roster. I would like to see him stay if everything makes sense.

And honestly, to the OP, I think people make far too much of the Britton playoff thing. Buck explained his rationale and it was a reasonable explanation. If it'd worked out and Britton came in and closed out the next inning, Buck's a genius. It's easy to do the 20/20 hindsight deal when something doesn't work out. 

[foxfield]

8 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the thing here is that if you truly believe that "it's just not working anymore" with Buck, then why can't that same logic apply to Duquette? After all, they're similarly tenured with the Orioles. Similar success with them as well. And similar lack of success over the last couple years as well. And as much dysfunction as there is...don't you think there was similar negative effects downstream to Buck (that also Duquette endured)?

I guess my biggest thing here...is that I don't think the Orioles as constructed would win many more under any other manager. For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette. When you look at just how much seemingly every part of this roster has regressed (either due to age, random chance and/or whatever else)...I just can't fault Buck for most of it. The bullpen doesn't have a reliable arm in it. And the only reliable arm was only for part of the season (Richard Bleier). 

There are currently *2* active and healthy Oriole pitchers that have an ERA under 4.00. Can you guess them? It's Miguel Castro (3.86) and Paul Fry (3.32). That's it. Nobody in the starting rotation has an ERA under 4.70 (Bundy). 

The offense has *one* regular with an OPS over .742 and that's Mark Trumbo. They scored the 6th least runs per game in all of MLB with 3.95. 

They allow the 2nd most runs per game in all of MLB with 5.42.

Total WAR is -16.3. 2nd worst in all of MLB. 

For defense, they're dead last in defensive efficiency. They're 26th in fielding percentage. 2nd worst in RA/G. 

I just don't understand how that's not nearly entirely a talent issue. And as are as I'm aware...the 25/40 man rosters are Duquette's responsibility (even if there's some weird Duquette/Brady/Buck thing going on).

All that said, I agree mostly with your post. I personally think that Dan Duquette should have been let go years ago (I think the time to do it was after the 2015 season). But that aside, I do think they need to clean house at this point. And I love Buck. And there might be a world where the new GM comes on and wants to keep Buck around, but I don't see that happening. I'd imagine any new GM would want stipulations up front that they get to pick their own staff. And unless they 100% think Buck is the manager for them, I just can't see this situation being realistic.

Thats an excellent response and I appreciate it very much.  I think it's a matter of perspective and I appreciate your thoughts.  Very little factual information to disagree with here.  I think we agree on much, at the end of the day I think the Orioles have smart guys in the important jobs of GM and Manager.  But somehow ownership allowed the controls to get muddy.  Chain of command and what not.  For the most part I am ok with almost any iteration of things as long as a clear GM is given authority and the responsibility to run things.  If that means DD stays...ok if it means he goes...ok.  Same with Buck.  But I think we both agree there is just no likely way that happens for Buck.

I will say I find it interesting that we can see responsibility for the roster differently.  I see the GM as being hamstrung and that causing errors.  You see Buck managing a team of no talent.  To be fair, its not one or the other's fault.  It is the GM's responsibility and manager..with his elevated stature has had input too.  I have no idea what happens.  We will see, I hope its better.

[Natty]

8 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the thing here is that if you truly believe that "it's just not working anymore" with Buck, then why can't that same logic apply to Duquette? After all, they're similarly tenured with the Orioles. Similar success with them as well. And similar lack of success over the last couple years as well. And as much dysfunction as there is...don't you think there was similar negative effects downstream to Buck (that also Duquette endured)?

I guess my biggest thing here...is that I don't think the Orioles as constructed would win many more under any other manager. For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette. When you look at just how much seemingly every part of this roster has regressed (either due to age, random chance and/or whatever else)...I just can't fault Buck for most of it. The bullpen doesn't have a reliable arm in it. And the only reliable arm was only for part of the season (Richard Bleier). 

There are currently *2* active and healthy Oriole pitchers that have an ERA under 4.00. Can you guess them? It's Miguel Castro (3.86) and Paul Fry (3.32). That's it. Nobody in the starting rotation has an ERA under 4.70 (Bundy). 

The offense has *one* regular with an OPS over .742 and that's Mark Trumbo. They scored the 6th least runs per game in all of MLB with 3.95. 

They allow the 2nd most runs per game in all of MLB with 5.42.

Total WAR is -16.3. 2nd worst in all of MLB. 

For defense, they're dead last in defensive efficiency. They're 26th in fielding percentage. 2nd worst in RA/G. 

I just don't understand how that's not nearly entirely a talent issue. And as are as I'm aware...the 25/40 man rosters are Duquette's responsibility (even if there's some weird Duquette/Brady/Buck thing going on).

All that said, I agree mostly with your post. I personally think that Dan Duquette should have been let go years ago (I think the time to do it was after the 2015 season). But that aside, I do think they need to clean house at this point. And I love Buck. And there might be a world where the new GM comes on and wants to keep Buck around, but I don't see that happening. I'd imagine any new GM would want stipulations up front that they get to pick their own staff. And unless they 100% think Buck is the manager for them, I just can't see this situation being realistic.

Excellent post. 

"For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette".

Just to add, we are...

27th in Batting Avg.

29th in OBP

25th in runs

29th in ERA

29th in BAA

29th in WHIP

 

 

 

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, Natty said:

Excellent post. 

"For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette".

Just to add, we are...

27th in Batting Avg.

29th in OBP

25th in runs

29th in ERA

29th in BAA

29th in WHIP

 

 

 

It is an excellent post, but the single line you quote is the weakest point in it.  Of course it is so carefully qualified it has no real meaning.  

For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on DD,

So, IF and I know it is a big if DD was saddled with say Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo and was not allowed to sign any pitching...it could be accurate to saddle him with the roster.  I mean as I noted to Puck's response....it IS the GM's responsibility.  But like Puck, you want to make this the fault of the GM.  And I am fine with that...but when the best statement is For the most part, he is nearly entirely at fault.  You have already taken him off the hook.

The 2018 Orioles are the worst team in franchise history with a going for it payroll and a GM who has been rumored to have little to no control since 2014.  The roster has fingerprints from the Manager and the roving friend of ownership who believe they and they alone can save guys and make them successful.

Again, I don't care who survives...as long as everyone reports to a GM.  But if you look at 2018 and see something created by the GM.  Then we are not looking at the same thing.

 

[Bradysburns]

9 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think the thing here is that if you truly believe that "it's just not working anymore" with Buck, then why can't that same logic apply to Duquette? After all, they're similarly tenured with the Orioles. Similar success with them as well. And similar lack of success over the last couple years as well. And as much dysfunction as there is...don't you think there was similar negative effects downstream to Buck (that also Duquette endured)?

I guess my biggest thing here...is that I don't think the Orioles as constructed would win many more under any other manager. For the most part, this roster is nearly entirely on Dan Duquette. When you look at just how much seemingly every part of this roster has regressed (either due to age, random chance and/or whatever else)...I just can't fault Buck for most of it. The bullpen doesn't have a reliable arm in it. And the only reliable arm was only for part of the season (Richard Bleier). 

There are currently *2* active and healthy Oriole pitchers that have an ERA under 4.00. Can you guess them? It's Miguel Castro (3.86) and Paul Fry (3.32). That's it. Nobody in the starting rotation has an ERA under 4.70 (Bundy). 

The offense has *one* regular with an OPS over .742 and that's Mark Trumbo. They scored the 6th least runs per game in all of MLB with 3.95. 

They allow the 2nd most runs per game in all of MLB with 5.42.

Total WAR is -16.3. 2nd worst in all of MLB. 

For defense, they're dead last in defensive efficiency. They're 26th in fielding percentage. 2nd worst in RA/G. 

I just don't understand how that's not nearly entirely a talent issue. And as are as I'm aware...the 25/40 man rosters are Duquette's responsibility (even if there's some weird Duquette/Brady/Buck thing going on).

All that said, I agree mostly with your post. I personally think that Dan Duquette should have been let go years ago (I think the time to do it was after the 2015 season). But that aside, I do think they need to clean house at this point. And I love Buck. And there might be a world where the new GM comes on and wants to keep Buck around, but I don't see that happening. I'd imagine any new GM would want stipulations up front that they get to pick their own staff. And unless they 100% think Buck is the manager for them, I just can't see this situation being realistic.

These are great points. That kind of futility can't be placed on the manager alone. He shares responsibility with the front office, and the players themselves. To view the Orioles' present situation as the result of bad management is to REALLY miss the overall picture, IMO. Has Buck don't stuff along the way I think makes no sense? Absolutely. Does he have his faults. Yes. Do they come with a WHOLE lot of wisdom and a brilliant baseball mind and a real touch with managing egos and psyches? Yes. 

Give Buck the Red Sox roster and they're doing what they're doing or better.

Again, I simply cannot forget the FIVE years we were the winningest team in baseball, with probably the worst development program, a mediocre roster, etc. Buck kept this thing together with duct tape and WD-40 for a long time. I don't think folks fully appreciate, even now, what he's done for this organization. And I get it. What have you done for me lately? I just don't agree that Buck's the problem. I think the roster is the problem. 

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

These are great points. That kind of futility can't be placed on the manager alone. He shares responsibility with the front office, and the players themselves. To view the Orioles' present situation as the result of bad management is to REALLY miss the overall picture, IMO. Has Buck don't stuff along the way I think makes no sense? Absolutely. Does he have his faults. Yes. Do they come with a WHOLE lot of wisdom and a brilliant baseball mind and a real touch with managing egos and psyches? Yes. 

Give Buck the Red Sox roster and they're doing what they're doing or better.

Again, I simply cannot forget the FIVE years we were the winningest team in baseball, with probably the worst development program, a mediocre roster, etc. Buck kept this thing together with duct tape and WD-40 for a long time. I don't think folks fully appreciate, even now, what he's done for this organization. And I get it. What have you done for me lately? I just don't agree that Buck's the problem. I think the roster is the problem. 

I think the method of construction is the problem.  But great points.  

 

It's like this....Im a chef and you are eating in my restaurant.  I serve the house specialty.  As Chef, it is my responsibility to prepare the best meal.  The waiter manages your stay and has always been fabulous.  But tonight....the waiter decides my special sauce needs tweaking and adds stuff on his own.  Some guy who is friends with the owner comes by and decides you will really like it done differently and makes his own changes.  You get where I am going of course.

The meal sucks.  You rightly demand to see me the chef...the one responsible.  I could tell you all the reasons why this happened but it wouldn't matter.  Everyone in the kitchen knows exactly what happened and everyone is pissed at everyone.  No one talks.

It's a messed up situation and the roster is the problem.  It's terrible.  But its also not that simple.  There is stuff going on in the back kitchen and it's destroying what used to work here.

THAT is what has to be fixed and THAT probably cannot be done with Buck even if he remains a great manager.  But IF he can report to a GM and convince him he can do his job and stay out of the kitchen, well then he is clearly a great waiter.......

 

Or that's how I see it anyway.

[JohnBKistler]

The Orioles can do a lot worse at manager (and have done a lot worse in the Angelos era:  Ray Miller, anyone?  How about Lee Mazzilli?).  Buck can stay if he wants to stay, in my opinion.  The only qualifier I would put on that is if a new GM is hired and he wants somebody else.

[Frobby]

On 8/11/2018 at 5:18 PM, TonySoprano said:

There are those who claim that the Britton decision was when Buck "lost the clubhouse."  2017 started off 15-8 in April against a tough schedule.  The team had only one winning month (August), the rest of the way.  From June-August, 36-46 (.439).  A .360 July is the high water mark of this season.

 

On 8/11/2018 at 6:30 PM, Tony-OH said:

Exactly Bill. It's a point when i think Buck Showalter as a manager "jumped the shark". I think that was the point when his message started to fall on deaf ears withing the clubhouse veterans. Regardless, it's the point where we can start to see the Orioles decline.

Sorry, but I just don’t buy it.   If Buck had lost the clubhouse with that one bad decision, it would have been apparent from the start of the season.   Instead, they got off to a great start in 2017.    They did begin to falter in mid-May, but the explanation is simple: the starting pitching sucked.    Despite that, the team scratched and clawed all summer, and made a nice run in August and early September.    I do not believe any of that would have been possible if Buck had lost the clubhouse at the end of 2016.    Yeah, the team fell apart in the second week of September, but to me that had nothing to do with Buck not using a pitcher in a 2016 playoff game.   

[Bradysburns]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think the method of construction is the problem.  But great points.  

 

It's like this....Im a chef and you are eating in my restaurant.  I serve the house specialty.  As Chef it is my responsibility to present the best meal.  The waiter manages your stay and has always been fabulous.  But tonight....the waiter decides my special sauce needs tweaking and adds stuff on his own.  Some guy who is friends with the owner comes by and decides you will really like it done differently and makes his own changes.  You get where I am going of course.

The meal sucks.  You rightly demand to see me the chef...the one responsible.  I could tell you all the reasons why this happened but it wouldn't matter.  Everyone in the kitchen knows exactly what happened and everyone is pissed at everyone.  No one talks.

It's a messed up situation and the roster is the problem.  It's terrible.  But its also not that simple.  There is stuff going on in the back kitchen and it's destroying what used to work here.

THAT is what has to be fixed and THAT probably cannot be done with Buck even if he remains a great manager.  But IF he can report to a GM and convince him he can do his job and stay out of the kitchen, well then he is clearly a great waiter.......

 

Or that's how I see it anyway.

I suspect your analogy is spot on. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Hazy reporting structure. Infighting and politicking. And everyone comes out with egg on his face. If that's what happened here, it's ownership's fault. But Buck and/or Dan may be the sacrificial lambs in the end, which is a shame. Because we wouldn't have had our recent successes without them.  

But weak owners create weak organizations, without clear boundaries or reporting structures. The results are generally what you'd expect, from what I've seen. 

What I would REALLY like to see is John Angelos fully taking over... and having him, with his advisors, determine our next GM... and then have that guy decide on the manager. If it's Dan and Buck, great. If not, great. But it should come from the top, and then the top should delegate. 

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

I suspect your analogy is spot on. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Hazy reporting structure. Infighting and politicking. And everyone comes out with egg on his face. If that's what happened here, it's ownership's fault. But Buck and/or Dan may be the sacrificial lambs in the end, which is a shame. Because we wouldn't have had our recent successes without them.  

But weak owners create weak organizations, without clear boundaries or reporting structures. The results are generally what you'd expect, from what I've seen. 

What I would REALLY like to see is John Angelos fully taking over... and having him, with his advisors, determine our next GM... and then have that guy decide on the manager. If it's Dan and Buck, great. If not, great. But it should come from the top, and then the top should delegate. 

If this does not happen, I don't think the rest matters....

[TonySoprano]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Sorry, but I just don’t buy it.   If Buck had lost the clubhouse with that one bad decision, it would have been apparent from the start of the season.   Instead, they got off to a great start in 2017.    They did begin to falter in mid-May, but the explanation is simple: the starting pitching sucked.    Despite that, the team scratched and clawed all summer, and made a nice run in August and early September.    I do not believe any of that would have been possible if Buck had lost the clubhouse at the end of 2016.    Yeah, the team fell apart in the second week of September, but to me that had nothing to do with Buck not using a pitcher in a 2016 playoff game.   

As I said before, I don't get the concept of "losing the clubhouse."  There are plenty of people who say it does happen.  Once the games meant nothing at the end of the year, you get a September like we had.  I don't get the "work ethic" that says you stop trying.  Yeah, it's a long season, but don't you have any pride?   It doesn't have to be that way.  Was that on Buck?

[foxfield]

21 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

As I said before, I don't get the concept of "losing the clubhouse."  There are plenty of people who say it does happen.  Once the games meant nothing at the end of the year, you get a September like we had.  I don't get the "work ethic" that says you stop trying.  Yeah, it's a long season, but don't you have any pride?   It doesn't have to be that way.  Was that on Buck?

Pride, interestingly enough is one of the seven deadly sins.   But all joking aside, no, it does not have to be that way and when the team was coming around, it won down the stretch even when it meant nothing.  But since last year, it's different.  

Is that Buck?  Is it Davis and Trumbo?  Is it DD?  Brady?

If a skunk sprays a room full of people...everyone stinks.

[Dipper9]

On 8/11/2018 at 4:39 PM, TonySoprano said:

Yep, I started tracking this in detail back in May.  1988 and 2018 were tied at 19-50.  Since game #79, 1988 has not lost the lead.

Were there signs back then that 1988 could happen?  Well, just like the 7-21 mark from September on in 2017, 1987 ended on a 7-24 run.

September 1987-October 1988 61-131 (.318).
September 2017-Present 42-103 (.311)

But then Why Not happened in 1989.  And chance of Part Deux in 2019?