Jump to content

Buck and Dan's home run strategy did not help the O's

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

Posted
Posted

o

 

In addition to 2018 being the first season ever with more Strikeouts than Hits in MLB history (1876 - Present), the last 3 seasons have seen the most Home Runs from the Lead-off Position than ever before ........

 

 

2016: lll 576 llll (The 3rd Most Ever in Major League History) 

2017: lll 642 llll (The Most Ever in Major League History)

2018: lll 638 llll (The 2nd Most Ever in Major League History)

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24782725/an-october-blueprint-playoff-baseball-looks-2018

 

 

 

 

o

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 103
  • Created
  • Last Reply
OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

In addition to 2018 being the first season ever with more Strikeouts than Hits in MLB history (1876 - Present), the last 3 seasons have seen the most Home Runs from the Lead-off Position than ever before ........

 

 

2016: lll 576 llll (The 3rd Most Ever in Major League History) 

2017: lll 642 llll (The Most Ever in Major League History)

2018: lll 638 llll (The 2nd Most Ever in Major League History)

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24782725/an-october-blueprint-playoff-baseball-looks-2018

 

 

 

 

o

o

 

Somewhat related to the OP (home run strategy.)

 

o

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, esmd said:

I don't disagree.  I think you can have a couple of those types in the lineup, maybe 3 or 4 (at most), but you needs guys that hit for average and have a high OBP as well.  Ya know, balance. ?  Good defense helps too.  It worked for a while, but it can all go south quickly, as we've seen first hand. 

Well we already have 1)Trumbo, 2) Davis, 3) Villar, and 4) Cashner and only one of them has a shot of contributing something positive so I'd say we're at our limit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
esmd All-Star

esmd

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Well we already have 1)Trumbo, 2) Davis, 3) Villar, and 4) Cashner and only one of them has a shot of contributing something positive so I'd say we're at our limit. 

Not sure how Cashner fits into the lineup discussion, but okay. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Yes, it worked, but it's not an approach that lends itself to sustained success. The rebuild should focus on pitching, defense, speed and on base percentage. That way, the Orioles don't put themselves in a position (again) where they feel the need to waste  inordinate amount of money on a one dimensional home run hitter. 

I don't know that there's any evidence that defense, speed and on base percentage lend themselves to sustained success any more than other strategies.  Obviously having wall-to-wall on base monsters and great pitching is the best strategy of all the strategies, but that's very difficult in today's baseball and a reasonable budget.

The best way to sustain success is to have a solid pipeline of young talent of any/all types, avoid risky (read: most) free agents, and to be dispassionate about letting many of your older, more expensive players go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Well we already have 1)Trumbo, 2) Davis, 3) Villar, and 4) Cashner and only one of them has a shot of contributing something positive so I'd say we're at our limit. 

They all have a shot.  Some just do not have a high percentage shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know that there's any evidence that defense, speed and on base percentage lend themselves to sustained success any more than other strategies.  Obviously having wall-to-wall on base monsters and great pitching is the best strategy of all the strategies, but that's very difficult in today's baseball and a reasonable budget.

The best way to sustain success is to have a solid pipeline of young talent of any/all types, avoid risky (read: most) free agents, and to be dispassionate about letting many of your older, more expensive players go.

I think getting on base (includes walks) and playing good defense are MUCH easier to control then hitting HRs. Pitching is a little more fickle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jjnono All-Star

jjnono

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think getting on base (includes walks) and playing good defense are MUCH easier to control then hitting HRs. Pitching is a little more fickle. 

Agree that pitching is a bit more fickle... and according to the link below, the shift makes it even MORE fickle... by driving up walks!  (who knew?)

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/40088/baseball-therapy-how-beat-shift/

The game has adapted to the shift by making the (correct) assumption that the shift is powerless against home runs, and in turn the analytics people have promoted fireballers to counteract those power hitters, helping turn the game into the boring mano-y-mano Launch Angle Exit Velocity Spin Rate BS show we see today...

But, much as the article linked above notes, there is only scant and occasional evidence that the shift actually does what it's supposed to do - prevent hitters from reaching first base.  So, until either the executive eggheads reverse their directives, or until offenses come up with more concrete means of beating the shift, it's here to stay. 

Note that the article pretty clearly shows that a full shift - the type Chris Davis sees with no one on base - is provably effective against pull hitters.  But the partial shift - which Davis sees with men on base - is actually less successful defensively than a normal alignment.

Ultimately, then, it strikes me that a team could incorporate speedy hitters with good bat control in front of pull heavy types and force the opposing manager to hedge his shifting bets (by having to forego the full shift in favor of the partial shift).  Much as Milwaukee has adopted a no-win opener + bullpen approach, couldn't teams reconstruct lineups so that we get away from "power guys hitting 3-4-5" and instead have three mini-sets of hitters equally spaced though out the lineup, where each mini-set includes fast guy/bat control guy/power guy, thus potentially helping the power guys to do their thing without facing as many full shifts?   Imagine a lineup where Davis hits ninth and thrives...  just sayin'...  maybe team OBP goes up...

Sorry, slow day at work...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think getting on base (includes walks) and playing good defense are MUCH easier to control then hitting HRs. Pitching is a little more fickle. 

Depends who's numbers you are using for that defense.  OBP is awesome, speed not so much, slugging, especially after getting those men on base is real great. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Just Regular
      Grade the Eflin Trade

      By Just Regular · Posted

      The earliest 2025 NFBC results exist, and slotted him about the 30th best AL starter for 2025 alone's expected statistical production.    Eflin and all five guys in Tampa's forecast rotation (Baz, McClanahan, Pepiot, Bradley, Springs) fell around that level. That assumes free agents Burnes, Snell, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Pivetta, Fried and Manaea fall about half into the AL. He'll start Opening Day, but it is a byproduct of the disappointing beginning to Grayson's career and Bradish's current injury. I think odds are pretty low he is a 2026 Oriole.
    • DrinkinWithFermi
      RHH Outfield Targets

      By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted

      Whoever we add needs to be able to play a solid CF or LF at OPACY and Pham definitely does not fit that bill.
    • MarCakes21
      RHH Outfield Targets

      By MarCakes21 · Posted

      I'm one for Tommy Pham, even though I'll take heat for it.  I think the veteran aspect of it could be key. O'Neil would be great, but he also brings more of what we have in the Ks and HRs department
    • DrinkinWithFermi
      Grade the Eflin Trade

      By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted

      Let's see how he does over a full year here first so we don't overpay for a SSS. He was pretty pedestrian prior to the trade.
    • MarCakes21
      Do we agree that developing Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B and Mayo 1B/DH.......

      By MarCakes21 · Posted

      I could see against tough lefties Holiday sits, Westy at 2B, and Mayo at 3B.  Or Holiday at SS to spell Gunnar sometimes too and this being the configuration. But yes, most of Holiday at 2B, Westy at 3B and Mayo DH or 1B.
    • DrinkinWithFermi
      RHH Outfield Targets

      By DrinkinWithFermi · Posted

      I don't think you bring Slater back if you add Bader (unless Austin's willing to take a MiLB deal and start the year at Norfolk) because then you have to get rid of either Urias or Mateo, and that doesn't seem wise with how thinned out the IF depth is now and Holliday still trying to get his feet under him.
    • Jammer7
      Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, Fredi Gonzalez and Jose Hernandez let go

      By Jammer7 · Posted

      This is true. However, it is more situational in the post season. Guys are pitched to differently. You have to take what the game gives you. Home runs happen, but the best teams know when to take that shot and when to shorten up or be more line drive oriented. Home runs can be a surprise to good hitters who simply were in time and put a good swing on plane through the ball. It was a line drive that ran out of field. Hitters have to know who they are. Some sit on fast balls early in the count in a certain small box. If they get it, they take that A swing. Or maybe they sit off speed early. They may take a strike that is more of a pitcher’s pitch, or one they were not looking for. if you’re sitting fastball early, not a great idea to swing at a curveball. Or vice versa. Whatever the case, with two strikes, you have to think contact and productive at bat. For some, that approach may be sooner in the at bat, of the situation dictates it. There is no BABIP if there is not a ball in play. So luck plays no role in a strikeout. It seemed like the Orioles, as a whole, in 2024 were looking a certain pitch, and if the pitch was hittable they would hack. Even if it was just off the plate. Too many big swings, and tons of resulting misses, in key situations where shortening up a bit was the better approach. Lastly, not many of our guys are true “home run hitters.” What I mean by that is when Santander strikes out swinging at a piece ch with a big cut. I get it. That is his game to be focused on driving the ball. That is what he gets paid to do. Along with that comes a fair amount of swing and miss, and roll over ground balls. Not all our hitters should be having the same approach. Gunnar may hit 35-40 home runs in a season, but he is a much more dynamic hitter than just a “home run guy.” He is capable of doing anything on the field. He is extremely talented, and we have a few more that may fall into that category some day. There are times to adjust and take what the game gives you. Go oppo for a single, put pressure on the defense. This game is hard, but we can do better. If we are going to win, we must do much better.   

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...