2018 top 1-5 Prospects Vote

[O's84]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 The Orioles really don't have a guy who has average and power potential like Mountcastle. 

Don't forget he has a killer name too! 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Bonecrusher52 said:

No one can outrank Matthew Hobgood, proud winner of 2011 Oriole Hangout Annual Adam Loewen Award (OHAALA).

Well, there’s always Wade Townsend, who we drafted no. 4 overall in 2004 and couldn’t even sign.    And then he was drafted no. 8 by Tampa the following year and posted a 6.18 ERA as a minor leaguer, never reaching the majors.     I guess at least we didn’t have to pay him.    

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, there’s always Wade Townsend, who we drafted no. 4 overall in 2004 and couldn’t even sign.    And then he was drafted no. 8 by Tampa the following year and posted a 6.18 ERA as a minor leaguer, never reaching the majors.     I guess at least we didn’t have to pay him.    

I doubt anyone will beat Chris Smith. That was the worse #1 pick ever for the Orioles bar none.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I doubt anyone will beat Chris Smith. That was the worse #1 pick ever for the Orioles bar none.

He was bad and oft-injured, but “only” a number 7 pick.   I do remember a lot of experts saying “huh?” when we picked him.   That was so long ago I hadn’t joined OH, but it was a big topic on the AOL Orioles board back in the day.

Boy, we’ve had some doozies.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

He was bad and oft-injured, but “only” a number 7 pick.   I do remember a lot of experts saying “huh?” when we picked him.   That was so long ago I hadn’t joined OH, but it was a big topic on the AOL Orioles board back in the day.

Boy, we’ve had some doozies.   

If I remember correctly Smith was a signabiltity pick simply to save money where Hobgood was a signability pick so they could give a million each to Ohlman and Coffey.

[TonySoprano]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, there’s always Wade Townsend, who we drafted no. 4 overall in 2004 and couldn’t even sign.    And then he was drafted no. 8 by Tampa the following year and posted a 6.18 ERA as a minor leaguer, never reaching the majors.     I guess at least we didn’t have to pay him.    

Because in the infinite wisdom of MLB, the supplemental pick for an unsigned #1 is worth less than one for losing a free agent, in 2005, the Orioles compensation pick #48 was Garrett Olson, career WAR -2.7.   3 1/2 years later,  Andy Sweater Vest traded Olson in a package for Felix Pie, career WAR - 1.6.

[Aristotelian]

Dang, wrong again. I got the correct group but wrong order. I think that underscores that we've got a pretty deep group of second tier prospects that are pretty much interchangeable, but we don't have that truly elite top tier guy.

Really surprised at how much you guys have Diaz slipping just a few months after being considered the consensus #1 prospect and headliner of the Machado deal. Also surprised that Rodriguez is so high as he hasn't really done anything to move himself up.

[ChosenOne21]

McKenna not being in the top 10 is kind of mind blowing. I'm not sure if I should look at that as a good thing or bad thing

[weams]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Dang, wrong again. I got the correct group but wrong order. I think that underscores that we've got a pretty deep group of second tier prospects that are pretty much interchangeable, but we don't have that truly elite top tier guy.

Really surprised at how much you guys have Diaz slipping just a few months after being considered the consensus #1 prospect and headliner of the Machado deal. Also surprised that Rodriguez is so high as he hasn't really done anything to move himself up.

It was tricky with the duplication. 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Dang, wrong again. I got the correct group but wrong order. I think that underscores that we've got a pretty deep group of second tier prospects that are pretty much interchangeable, but we don't have that truly elite top tier guy.

Really surprised at how much you guys have Diaz slipping just a few months after being considered the consensus #1 prospect and headliner of the Machado deal. Also surprised that Rodriguez is so high as he hasn't really done anything to move himself up.

Yeah, I went with group 5 because I figured Díaz would be somewhere ahead of Kremer, based on how they were portrayed when the trade occurred.    I look at it this way— the whole top 5 got a ceiling of 60 or higher, with Hall and Rodriguez getting 65’s.    Can’t remember the last time I saw that on an OH list (though I think there may be some wishful thinking involved).

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Dang, wrong again. I got the correct group but wrong order. I think that underscores that we've got a pretty deep group of second tier prospects that are pretty much interchangeable, but we don't have that truly elite top tier guy.

Really surprised at how much you guys have Diaz slipping just a few months after being considered the consensus #1 prospect and headliner of the Machado deal. Also surprised that Rodriguez is so high as he hasn't really done anything to move himself up.

We obviously like Diaz and could make a case for him being over Kremer or even possibly Mountcastle, but remember, with our list, we say to ourselves, if we could only have player in the system who would it be?

Diaz is still more hype than production and hasn't show the ability to hit for power yet. The Orioles addressed this in the instructional league so we'll see if he has more power next year. Most estimates have him a 12-18 home run guy though some could see a 20-25 guy. He's not a base stealer and his defense is ok but not plus. 

Like I comped him, he looks like he could end up a Phil Bradley type with less stolen bases. That's fine, but I like the upside of Kremer, Mountcastle, Rodriguez and Hall more.

 

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

McKenna not being in the top 10 is kind of mind blowing. I'm not sure if I should look at that as a good thing or bad thing

Well, we clearly are not as high on him as some others out there. Most scouts and baseball people I spoke too think he's a tweener guy. He has 40 power (Don't get excited over the Frederick numbers as it's a notorious home run park), doesn't steal bases effectively in high numbers, and showed some struggles with upper level breaking pitches his first go around.

Now I think he will make some adjustments to those offspeed pitches and seems to have enough bat speed to hit good fastballs, but without a lot of power and base stealing, what is he in the major leagues?

Well, his ability to play defense well will allow him to be a good 4th outfielder and might end up a good platoon center fielder with a chance to be more if his power improves (he's not a big guy so unless he has a Hays type of power jump next year it's doubtful he'll be more than a 8-12 guy).

So what we see is a guy who could end up a low end regular if given an opportunity, but most likely will find himself a niche as a solid 4th outfielder. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, we clearly are not as high on him as some others out there. Most scouts and baseball people I spoke too think he's a tweener guy. He has 40 power (Don't get excited over the Frederick numbers as it's a notorious home run park), doesn't steal bases effectively in high numbers, and showed some struggles with upper level breaking pitches his first go around.

Now I think he will make some adjustments to those offspeed pitches and seems to have enough bat speed to hit good fastballs, but without a lot of power and base stealing, what is he in the major leagues?

Well, his ability to play defense well will allow him to be a good 4th outfielder and might end up a good platoon center fielder with a chance to be more if his power improves (he's not a big guy so unless he has a Hays type of power jump next year it's doubtful he'll be more than a 8-12 guy).

So what we see is a guy who could end up a low end regular if given an opportunity, but most likely will find himself a niche as a solid 4th outfielder. 

He would be thrilled to have Nate Mclouth's career. And hit the pole. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, we clearly are not as high on him as some others out there. Most scouts and baseball people I spoke too think he's a tweener guy. He has 40 power (Don't get excited over the Frederick numbers as it's a notorious home run park), doesn't steal bases effectively in high numbers, and showed some struggles with upper level breaking pitches his first go around.

Now I think he will make some adjustments to those offspeed pitches and seems to have enough bat speed to hit good fastballs, but without a lot of power and base stealing, what is he in the major leagues?

Well, his ability to play defense well will allow him to be a good 4th outfielder and might end up a good platoon center fielder with a chance to be more if his power improves (he's not a big guy so unless he has a Hays type of power jump next year it's doubtful he'll be more than a 8-12 guy).

So what we see is a guy who could end up a low end regular if given an opportunity, but most likely will find himself a niche as a solid 4th outfielder. 

How about Jon Jay as a comp?  .285/.352/.378 career line, plays pretty good defense.    

[Frobby]

I guess this is as good a spot as any to note the differences between the new official OH top 10 and the list that Luke last updated back on Aug. 25 (but was started earlier than that).    My question ( in each case) is, are the differences mostly due to later developments that changed Luke's opinions, or because Tony's own opinions and opinions from other sources changed the rankings.

1.  DJ Hall (current projected likely grade: 60); Luke had him ranked 3rd at 55.   This certainly looks like a case where Hall's strong finish bumped him up.

2.  Grayson Rodriguez 60; Luke had him ranked 7th at 50.

3.  Ryan Mountcastle 55; Luke had him ranked 1st at 55.

4.  Dean Kremer 55; Luke had him 13th at 50.

5.  Yusniel Diaz 55; Luke had him 2nd at 55.

6.  Austin Hays 50; Luke had him 4th at 50.

7.  Hunter Harvey 50; Luke had him 6th at 50.

8.  Zac Lowther 50; Luke had him 14th at 50.

9.  Blaine Knight 50; Luke had him 17th at 45.

10.  Brenan Hanifee 50; Luke had him 12th at 50.  

Other guys who were in Luke's top 10 but aren't currently there:  Luis Ortiz (ranked 5th at 50); Ryan McKenna (ranked 8th at 50); Dillon Tate (ranked 9th at 50); and Keegan Akin (ranked 10th at 50).

I note that even though the order had changed, the only grade differences are Hall (60 up from 55), Rodriguez (60 up from 50), Kremer (55 up from 50), and Knight (50 up from 45).    Nice to see that the changes are in a positive direction.