Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[Number5]

28 minutes ago, AZRon said:

Thanks -- can you cite your source for this information and/or provide a list of the protected players?
Major League Rule 2(b) has the following minor league team player "reserve" limits:
AAA - 38
AA   - 37
All others - 35

P.S. There is no longer an "AA Phase" for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

During the role call before the AAA portion of the Rule 5 Draft they stated how many players each team had protected on their AAA roster.  The number for Baltimore was 32.

[Il BuonO]

On 12/13/2018 at 5:57 PM, Luke-OH said:

They are both solid picks, I know it might seem like I’m down on Martin because I didn’t have him in my top few guys, but I think he’s a good Rule 5 pick. It’s hard to find MLB quality SS defense with AA experience and pedigree. From what I saw, he was more average to slightly above average at SS, but if you think he’s legit plus there as some have said, then you have to take him, there just aren’t many plus defensive SS.

I’m wondering your thoughts on Jackson moving to 3B.

I’m not sold on Nunez (I think he’s exposed on average breaking balls) and Dickerson likely gave him a crash course when first played just to get rid of his horrible footwork. However, he did make improvements in my view so at the very least he’s coachable.

Getting back to Jackson, he’s makes all the plays at SS and has a Machado-like arm (a 70 at SS MM was 60 but not sure that couldn’t have been higher).

Seemingly, he’s a good fit athletically to slide over to 3B instead of 2B where is arm is wasted.

I wonder what Elias thinks of Mountcastle. I think ( not certain) you and me along with few others had wondered aloud about him playing 2B and why it was never a consideration. His hands and glove work isn’t bad, his arm was the big question mark.

I like Villar there but ultimately he’s a trade piece. I’m not set on any of this, but the options should be explored before they give up on a more valuable defensive spot for RM while allowing for flexibility with the two R5 guys.

And I know it’s incredibly early, but it allows Martin to get first crack at SS. And if Nunez can stick at 3B, even better. More depth.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I’m wondering your thoughts on Jackson moving to 3B.

I’m not sold on Nunez (I think he’s exposed on average breaking balls) and Dickerson likely gave him a crash course when first played just to get rid of his horrible footwork. However, he did make improvements in my view so at the very least he’s coachable.

Getting back to Jackson, he’s makes all the plays at SS and has a Machado-like arm (a 70 at SS MM was 60 but not sure that couldn’t have been higher).

Seemingly, he’s a good fit athletically to slide over to 3B instead of 2B where is arm is wasted.

I wonder what Elias thinks of Mountcastle. I think ( not certain) you and me along with few others had wondered aloud about him playing 2B and why it was never a consideration. His hands and glove work isn’t bad, his arm was the big question mark.

I like Villar there but ultimately he’s a trade piece. I’m not set on any of this, but the options should be explored before they give up on a more valuable defensive spot for RM while allowing for flexibility with the two R5 guys.

And I know it’s incredibly early, but it allows Martin to get first crack at SS. And if Nunez can stick at 3B, even better. More depth.

That all makes sense to me, but I don't think it's likely either Martin or Jackson have an everyday bat. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Martin can figure out how to lift the ball or Jackson can make enough contact. I think there is a solid chance they can hit enough for a utility role. 

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

That all makes sense to me, but I don't think it's likely either Martin or Jackson have an everyday bat. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Martin can figure out how to lift the ball or Jackson can make enough contact. I think there is a solid chance they can hit enough for a utility role. 

I think what strikes me, is they don’t have to pay for a short term rental this way. If either Martin or Jackson can’t hit there will plenty of time to see that before the team is in contention again.

Or, maybe keep Villar a while. Of course I’d still like Iglesias if the price is right, but I don’t see it happening now.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I think what strikes me, is they don’t have to pay for a short term rental this way. If either Martin or Jackson can’t hit there will plenty of time to see that before the team is in contention again.

Or, maybe keep Villar a while. Of course I’d still like Iglesias if the price is right, but I don’t see it happening now.

I'm cool with that, it may be painful for some.

[weams]

21 hours ago, AZRon said:

Thanks -- can you cite your source for this information and/or provide a list of the protected players?
Major League Rule 2(b) has the following minor league team player "reserve" limits:
AAA - 38
AA   - 37
All others - 35

P.S. There is no longer an "AA Phase" for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

It was announced on the live stream before the draft started. They went through each team and confirmed the number protected and whether a team could draft or not because of full rosters. That was my source. Not written. Listened. And I misspoke, they did not say AAA. I did. 

[Greg Pappas]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/12/10/lukes-2018-rule-5-draft-preference-list/

Kudos to you @Luke-OH for identifying Josh Van Meter as the #1 prospect available in December's Rule 5 Draft.  

 

Quote

1    Josh VanMeter – Reds – 2B/LF/Super Utility

This is the only list you’ll see VanMeter at the top of and maybe the only list with him in the top 10. He’s the clear favorite for me though. VanMeter has always been on scouts radar as a potential plus hit guy. The rest of the tools weren’t impressive, he’s a below average runner home to first (he is much a better runner underway). He can handle multiple defensive positions, but he’s not an asset with the glove. The power was below average. So he was a guy with a pretty swing, excellent bat to ball skills, and a patient approach, but nothing else. That’s a utility ceiling type, nothing more.

In 2018 he changed his mechanics at the plate. He internally rotated his rear foot and loaded his rear hip more effectively. This allowed him to use his lower half to generate power and boy did he start hitting the ball with authority. The contact quality remained high and now the ball was jumping off his bat. He hit 55% better than league average in AAA over the second half of the season while playing games at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF. The power surge is real and he should be a useful part-time player right away due to positional flexibility and his RHP mashing bat. I think there is real everyday 2B upside if he can manage fringe average defense there.

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/12/10/lukes-2018-rule-5-draft-preference-list/

Kudos to you @Luke-OH for identifying Josh Van Meter as the #1 prospect available in December's Rule 5 Draft.  

 

 

Luke looks like he called the bat, no doubt. Great job there.

Just looking at his fielding stats, when you see a 5-11, 165 pound guy getting playing time at 1B, you have to assume his 2B and 3B defense is lacking. Luke called his has defense fringe average, but it's worth mentioning that VanMeter may have some defensive concerns. 

Saying that, great call by Luke on identifying the adjustments VanMeter made. They clearly have carried over to 2019.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/12/10/lukes-2018-rule-5-draft-preference-list/

Kudos to you @Luke-OH for identifying Josh Van Meter as the #1 prospect available in December's Rule 5 Draft.  

Yea, but he totally whiffed on RHP Elvis Luciano. 

Yes, I see the walks and FIP it is just interesting that Luke didn't have him in his top 50 and he's got a 3.07 ERA.  Just goes to show how hard this is.

 

 

[BarclaySouthway]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Luke looks like he called the bat, no doubt. Great job there.

Just looking at his fielding stats, when you see a 5-11, 165 pound guy getting playing time at 1B, you have to assume his 2B and 3B defense is lacking. Luke called his has defense fringe average, but it's worth mentioning that VanMeter may have some defensive concerns. 

Saying that, great call by Luke on identifying the adjustments VanMeter made. They clearly have carried over to 2019.

When does Luke get his job offer from the Orioles?  

I am serious.

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, but he totally whiffed on RHP Elvis Luciano. 

Yes, I see the walks and FIP it is just interesting that Luke didn't have him in his top 50 and he's got a 3.07 ERA.  Just goes to show how hard this is.

It's really hard and you can just look at JJ Cooper's list or 2080's to see that. I generally judge success based on the percentage of the guys I ranked who were drafted, in that regard I got 7 of the 14 players that were selected by ranking 50 players. The BA list got 9 players out of 14 but listed 90 players. So I think I did a decent job ranking guys just on personal evaluation without contacts or outside help ( I traded some info with someone else who put out a list, but the players suggested to me, I looked at and didn't end up ranking, some of the players I suggested did end up on the other list). I will feel pretty good if VanMeter turns into a valuable MLB player since I really felt strongly about him.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's really hard and you can just look at JJ Cooper's list or 2080's to see that. I generally judge success based on the percentage of the guys I ranked who were drafted, in that regard I got 7 of the 14 players that were selected by ranking 50 players. The BA list got 9 players out of 14 but listed 90 players. So I think I did a decent job ranking guys just on personal evaluation without contacts or outside help ( I traded some info with someone else who put out a list, but the players suggested to me, I looked at and didn't end up ranking, some of the players I suggested did end up on the other list). I will feel pretty good if VanMeter turns into a valuable MLB player since I really felt strongly about him.

I wasn't trying to belittle your efforts.  I think most of us don't really understand how tightly grouped prospects are and how much results can vary.

[Luke-OH]

BA did really well in predicting the first few picks, but that is because JJ Cooper was basing those rankings on reports from team scouts/contacts on who teams were going to pick, not an evaulution on who he thought were the best players. 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't trying to belittle your efforts.  I think most of us don't really understand how tightly grouped prospects are and how much results can vary.

Didn't take it as such, but yeah, it's basically looking at a huge, huge group of 40 FVs, most of whom are not 40 present value guys and need more development and decide who is best. Then who is best may not be who is most useful to the teams who are drafting. 

From my 2017 list, Jason Martin was obviously valued as a prospect (higher than I had valued him) but just wasn't ready and wasn't worth stashing for teams in the rule 5 draft. 

Edit: Regarding Luciano, I wrote him off my list almost immediately as too raw to stick, I didn't even get to the step of watching video.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I've said it before and I'll amplify it now. Luke really knows his stuff but what's even better is that he isn't overbearing, obnoxious, or condescending.  I make sure to read anything he posts.  A great asset to this site but I wonder if bigger things are in his future.  Thanks.  As most can attest, I don't give out compliments very often. Over and out!

I appreciate it, I still have a ton to learn, but I try to improve and I watch an absurd amount of minor league and college baseball which helps.

I would like to be involved here regarding Orioles prospect whether or not I have another outlet for non-Orioles stuff (draft, rule 5, etc). I've been offered opportunities to write for other sites, but I appreciate the freedom and no-pressure arrangement I have here with Tony and Orioles Hangout. It allows me this outlet I enjoy but doesn't overly encroach on my day job and time with my 3 young children.