Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[Luke-OH]

Link to List

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/12/10/lukes-2018-rule-5-draft-preference-list/

 

 

I know this isn't everyone's favorite subject and that the Rule 5 draft hasn't worked out particularly well for the O's lately. However, real value is available every year, it just needs to be identified.

For example, last year Brad Keller and Franmil Reyes produced mid-rotation and above average RF production. (Franmil was available and on my preference list, but not selected by any team). Those are 10 MM+ surplus value assets. 

I'm working on a preference list for this year. I have 60 names so far, many of them will be protected by their respective teams, so it's far from a final list. I did ok on last year's list. 4 of my top 5 guys got selected. I had the guys above (Franmil and Keller) too low in the teens. It was a mixed bag, I hope to do a bit better this year, but it's a hard exercise. JJ Cooper's list was far from perfect as well.

So here's what I want to ask you all,

1. Are there any players in the O's org who are eligible who need to be protected in your view? (eligible players are Martin Cervenka, Wilson Garcia, Kirvin Moesquit, Drew Dosch, Jomar Reyes, Randolph Gassaway, Luis Perez, Brian Gonzalez, Jordan Kipper, Cristian Alvarado, Dillon Tate, Jay Flaa, Tanner Chleborad, Luis Gonzalez,  Nick Vespi) I think Tate is really the only one who needs to be added. The second tier of guys that maybe you protect are Luis Gonzalez and Martin Cervenka.

2. Who are some players who are eligible from other teams that have caught your eyes in one way or another (maybe an article on another site or seeing video or whatever)?  I'm trying to make sure I don't miss anyone that's worth considering.

3. What type of player should the Orioles select? A polished AAA reliever? A toolsy guy who hasn't produced? A late round draft pick with mediorce tools who has just produced? A former prospect who is coming off injury or poor performance? 

[bpilktree]

Padres are the team to keep eye on that have ton of young talent and may not be able to protect everyone.  Anderson Espinoza is guy that may get left off he has had injuries last two years with Tommy John but has big time arm and potential.  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, bpilktree said:

Padres are the team to keep eye on that have ton of young talent and may not be able to protect everyone.  Anderson Espinoza is guy that may get left off he has had injuries last two years with Tommy John but has big time arm and potential.  

I had assumed that he would be protected, I have 3 Padres on my list right now, not including Espinoza and Paddock who I assumed were locks to get protected, but I'd certainly add them if they weren't protected. 

The Rays and the Astros are the teams with the most guys on my list currently.

 

[TheOtherRipken]

We could really get an impact player this year we have both the pick and playing time to develop someone good (potentially).

Edited November 11, 2018 by TheOtherRipken

[weams]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I know this isn't everyone's favorite subject and that the Rule 5 draft hasn't worked out particularly well for the O's lately. However, real value is available every year, it just needs to be identified.

For example, last year Brad Keller and Franmil Reyes produced mid-rotation and above average RF production. (Franmil was available and on my preference list, but not selected by any team). Those are 10 MM+ surplus value assets. 

I'm working on a preference list for this year. I have 60 names so far, many of them will be protected by their respective teams, so it's far from a final list. I did ok on last year's list. 4 of my top 5 guys got selected. I had the guys above (Franmil and Keller) too low in the teens. It was a mixed bag, I hope to do a bit better this year, but it's a hard exercise. JJ Cooper's list was far from perfect as well.

So here's what I want to ask you all,

1. Are there any players in the O's org who are eligible who need to be protected in your view? (eligible players are Martin Cervenka, Wilson Garcia, Kirvin Moesquit, Drew Dosch, Jomar Reyes, Randolph Gassaway, Luis Perez, Brian Gonzalez, Jordan Kipper, Cristian Alvarado, Dillon Tate, Jay Flaa, Tanner Chleborad, Luis Gonzalez,  Nick Vespi) I think Tate is really the only one who needs to be added. The second tier of guys that maybe you protect are Luis Gonzalez and Martin Cervenka.

2. Who are some players who are eligible from other teams that have caught your eyes in one way or another (maybe an article on another site or seeing video or whatever)?  I'm trying to make sure I don't miss anyone that's worth considering.

3. What type of player should the Orioles select? A polished AAA reliever? A toolsy guy who hasn't produced? A late round draft pick with mediorce tools who has just produced? A former prospect who is coming off injury or poor performance? 

My choices. At 1/1 The Os should get two that stick.

[Moose Milligan]

Protect Dillon Tate.

They should figure out what players they want and then not pick them and someone else instead.  

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, weams said:

My choices. At 1/1 The Os should get two that stick.

You have to realize that by the time the second round rolls around, every team in the league has had a chance to pick someone and many teams have decided there was nobody worth picking.    I’d be thrilled if our 1:1 stuck on merit.    Not really hoping for anything beyond that.    

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

You have to realize that by the time the second round rolls around, every team in the league has had a chance to pick someone and many teams have decided there was nobody worth picking.    I’d be thrilled if our 1:1 stuck on merit.    Not really hoping for anything beyond that.    

Or have no room on the 40. The Orioles are not in that dilemma. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Or have no room on the 40. The Orioles are not in that dilemma. 

No question we have more room to take a flyer on some guys than most teams.   But that’s what it will be — a flyer.

I wonder what the track record of Rule 5 1:1’s is.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

No question we have more room to take a flyer on some guys than most teams.   But that’s what it will be — a flyer.

I wonder what the track record of Rule 5 1:1’s is.

I don't know where you would find it, but every year there seems to be a good one or two. It's just a matter of knowing which ones. Isn't that always the trick? 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't know where you would find it, but every year there seems to be a good one or two. It's just a matter of knowing which ones. Isn't that always the trick? 

More than just picking the right one.  Have to use and develop them correctly.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

More than just picking the right one.  Have to use and develop them correctly.

That’s a good point, if the Orioles go the route of taking the best future profile available rather than the best current profile available, the key will be developing that player against a major jump in competition (because the best prospect that’s going to be available was probably in A ball last year). The team has to determine how raw a guy can be and still be able to be developed at the MLB level, it’s an important determination to make.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No question we have more room to take a flyer on some guys than most teams.   But that’s what it will be — a flyer.

I wonder what the track record of Rule 5 1:1’s is.

 

13 minutes ago, weams said:

I don't know where you would find it, but every year there seems to be a good one or two. It's just a matter of knowing which ones. Isn't that always the trick? 

Oh, you can find it on BB-ref, though it takes a little work: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Rule_5_Draft

I went as far back as 2010 and there really hasn’t been an impact 1:1 in the Rule 5 since then.   They all stuck for the year they were drafted but several didn’t last beyond then.   The most successful in that time period was Josh Fields, chosen by the Astros in the 2012 Rule 5 draft.   He’s a middling reliever with a 3.71 career ERA who has been worth 1.8 rWAR and has appeared in 288 games.

So, I’m not saying there’s no talent available, but it seems that having the 1st pick isn’t particularly advantageous.    It’s a crapshoot.

 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s a good point, if the Orioles go the route of taking the best future profile available rather than the best current profile available, the key will be developing that player against a major jump in competition (because the best prospect that’s going to be available was probably in A ball last year). The team has to determine how raw a guy can be and still be able to be developed at the MLB level, it’s an important determination to make.

I'm hopeful they don't game the system again by stashing the player on the DL for an extended period of time.  I don't think it aids in development.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hopeful they don't game the system again by stashing the player on the DL for an extended period of time.  I don't think it aids in development.

Less need to do that now that it’s a non-competitive team.