My approach to the 2019 season

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But the majors was a fine place for Mancini to learn how to play the outfield?  

Desperation of a team that thought it could contend.

[weams]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The only position that I think Mountcastle would  be acceptable  defensively is DH.

Really? Tony and Luke with you on this?

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, weams said:

Really? Tony and Luke with you on this?

I think Tony and Luke would both say it would be better if Mountcastle played some first base in the minors before being promoted to that position in the majors.    He is not ready to take over the O's 1B job  to start the 2019 season IMO.

[weams]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Tony and Luke would both say it would be better if Mountcastle played some first base in the minors before being promoted to that position in the majors.    He is not ready to take over the O's 1B job  to start the 2019 season IMO.

I never said to promote him at the beginning of the season. 

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't see an Oriole SS in the system that will make the major in the next 3 years.   Grenier played low A ball last year and didn't hit or play defense well enough to deserve a promotion.   If the O's select Bobby Witt Jr he is probably three years away from the majors. Adam Hill was a Aberdeen.  That is probably three years away as well.

If you want to say two years foe Iglesias then I am fine with that as long as it gets him to sign with the O's.

I don't hate signing Iglesias, but I would rather see what Valera (or Bannon at 2B, Villar at SS) can do there.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I don't hate signing Iglesias, but I would rather see what Valera (or Bannon at 2B, Villar at SS) can do there.

I hate signing anyone that will not be part of the next competitive Orioles team. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

I hate signing anyone that will not be part of the next competitive Orioles team. 

I think its a good idea to sign a good defensive SS if the O's went to develop pitchers.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying you are wrong about the team not hitting.  But their is potential in the lineup.

Villar  2016:  589 AB, 92 R,  19 HR, 62 Steals,  285/369/457/826 [.708]

Mullins vs righties 2018:   281/337/464/800 at AAA, 317/373/509/882 at AA [.720]

Mancini 2017: 24 HR, 78 RBI,  293/338/488/826 [.759]

Trumbo 2016: 613 AB, 94 R, 47 HR, 108 RBI,  850 OPS [.757]

Hays 2017:  81R,  32 HR, 95 RBI,  329/365/593/958 ar A+/AA      BA's  #21 prospect pre 2018 [.729]

Nunez 2017:  473 AB, 32 HR, 78 RBI, .837 OPS at AAA [.718]

Stewart  2018 : 374 OBP, 836 OPS  at AAA before hamstring problems slowed him. [.721]

Wynns 2017:  370  AB,   281/377/419/796 at AA;  297/328/516/844 vs righties for the O's in 2018 [.650]

Iglesias 2018:  699 OPS [.678]

I’ve added Steamer’s 2019 projections in brackets after each player.   Obviously any player could exceed these projections, but as you can see the group averages out to a .715 OPS.   That actually would be a nice upgrade to last year’s .689 team OPS.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve added Steamer’s 2019 projections in brackets after each player.   Obviously any player could exceed these projections, but as you can see the group averages out to a .715 OPS.   That actually would be a nice upgrade to last year’s .689 team OPS.

What I posted was to show potential.   I think Streamer is low.  The really numbers are probably somewhere in between.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

What I posted was to show potential.   I think Streamer is low.  The really numbers are probably somewhere in between.

I don’t really have an opinion on whether Steamer’s numbers are high or low.   Pretty much every Oriole except Manny underperformed their projections last year, so you just never know with these things.   But I think any list that shows upside potential has to be tempered by the fact that it’s not at all likely that everyone or even most of them are going to max out.

[tntoriole]

This is getting spooky...I really am trying to just find one thread that is not just about Trey Mancini deficiencies...this is the third thread in a row that is basically featuring Trey....lol.    

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really have an opinion on whether Steamer’s numbers are high or low.   Pretty much every Oriole except Manny underperformed their projections last year, so you just never know with these things.   But I think any list that shows upside potential has to be tempered by the fact that it’s not at all likely that everyone or even most of them are going to max out.

Hey, I am trying to get through an off season with basically no information from the Orioles.   

The numbers I post if they hit them had :

1 over 900 OPs

6 over 800 OPS

1 at 796 OPS 

1 at 699 OPS.

Of course they are not going to do that.  This is the high level for each player.  But you could that 40 point off each player and still have a pretty good team.   The potential is there to have a good team.  Several are young and/or inexperienced.   No one expects them to have the best year as a rookie.  Hopefully they have good seasons.

[tntoriole]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

While we wait for a new exec,  here is my approach tot he 2019 season.

1.  Put the best defensive team on the field that the O's can.   It helps the pitching and gives the Orioles that have a chance  to be the next wave of a playoff team an opportunity to play.

2.  I don't see the O's spending on FA except for one.   A shortstop on modest cost.

 

2B Villar - Speed at the top on the lineup and a base stealer.  I like him better at 2B than SS.  But he can backup SS.

CF Mullins - Probably a platoon player before the season is over but he gets a chance during ST to prove he can hit lefties.  Better range in CF than last year.  McKenna is a year away from challenge him for CF job.

1B Mancini - He needs to be out of left field for the  the most part.  Could be part on the next Os playoff team.

DH Trumbo -  His walk year.  He has the incentive to have a good season.   Let him play and hope he brings back a player at the deadline.

RF Hays -  improves the defense in RF and allows him to learn at the major league level.   He is probably part of the O's next playoff team

3B Nunez -Improved defensively during last year as the season went on.  Showed a bat in the minors that could play in the majors.

LF Stewart - Better than Mancini defensively in left.   Should get a chance in left until Diaz is ready.

C Wynns - Good defensive catcher with a great arm.  Showed the ability to hit for OBP in the minors

SS Jose Iglesias -  Signed 3/18.  Defensive leader of the infield.   I would aggressively sign him.  Not waiting till late in the off season. Beckham non tendered.

Bench

Davis -  At 33 he will not be part of the O's next playoff team.  Can't trade him so he becomes a defense replacement and plays when the can give other players a rest.  His mission from he beginning of the ST is to be able to place a single into left field whenever the defense shifts on him and to  Improve his OBP.

Rickard - Utility OF.  Platoons with Mullins in CF if Mullins proves he needs the help.  Regular defensive replacement in left.

Wilkerson - Backs up 2B/3B.  Plays when Villar shifts to SS to give Iglesias  a  break at SS.

Caleb Joseph -   1.7m is cheap of a backup catcher until Cervenka or Sisco prove ready to take over that spot.

 

Starters

Cobb -  With a good defensive team behind  he should be able to duplicate his 12-10, 3.66 ERA of 2017.  Tradable when a great offer happens.

Bundy - Should be able to duplicate is 13-9, 4.24 ERA of 2017 with a good defense behind him.

Cashner - Should be able to duplicate is 11-11 record of 2017 maybe not 3.40 ERA but a good defense would help him.  Tradable at the deadline.

Hess -  3.81 ERA in the 2nd half of 2018 earns him a spot in the rotation to begin ST.  Up to him to hold it

5th starter competition in ST - Means, Ramirez, Rogers, and Akin

Pen

Givens - It would take a great trade offer to get him.  Available but the bar is high.

Bleier -  Tradable at the deadline for a good offer until then I love to watch this guy.

Fry -   Part of the Os' next playoff team.

Castro - Part of the O's next playoff team.

Gilmartin -  O's need two guys in the pen that can give them a good 4 innings.  He looked good in that role in 2018

Yacabonis -  Not a good consistent starter but a fits the long relief role well.

Araujo  - For 17 days then open to Kline, Phillips, Scott, Carroll, or Meisinger.  Whoever earns it in ST.

 I like this team to be much better than 2018 because the focus would be better defense which helps everything else.   It give the young guys a chance to play while putting experience guys like Villar, Mancini and Trumbo in the best spots to help the team,  Iglesias defense in key for me at shortstop.

What do you think?  Something to talk about until we know who is running the ship. 

 

Thanks for the good rundown...I agree this very well could look like what is put out there in 2019.  I just am pessimistic that this group as outlined is going to be able to win much more than 62-65 games.  There are huge question marks in each group...offensively there is very little proven impact offense in that lineup, the starting pitching listed may improve or they may regress even more in 2019, Davis is a black hole and occupies a key bench slot, and the bullpen is also up and down with unproven guys..even Givens has to show me that he can be the closer reliably and he is far and away the best guy out there in the pen at the moment and very little, if any, quality depth at any slot. 

I also do not see any of the players you mentioned as being on our next playoff team.  I think we are in for a longer drought, unfortunately.   I think we could trade or sell anyone on this roster and not have much, if any impact at all on when we next make it to the playoffs.   We need a total rebuild, imho.  And it is the quality of this year’s  tradeable at the deadline deals and the timing and returns of the dealing of Bundy and Givens, etc and the draft picks for the next three years getting us a true stud or two that will determine when and if we next get to the playoffs. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Thanks for the good rundown...I agree this very well could look like what is put out there in 2019.  I just am pessimistic that this group as outlined is going to be able to win much more than 62-65 games.  There are huge question marks in each group...offensively there is very little proven impact offense in that lineup, the starting pitching listed may improve or they may regress even more in 2019, Davis is a black hole and occupies a key bench slot, and the bullpen is also up and down with unproven guys..even Givens has to show me that he can be the closer reliably and he is far and away the best guy out there in the pen at the moment and very little, if any, quality depth at any slot. 

I also do not see any of the players you mentioned as being on our next playoff team.  I think we are in for a longer drought, unfortunately.   I think we could trade or sell anyone on this roster and not have much, if any impact at all on when we next make it to the playoffs.   We need a total rebuild, imho.  And it is the quality of this year’s  tradeable at the deadline deals and the timing and returns of the dealing of Bundy and Givens, etc and the draft picks for the next three years getting us a true stud or two that will determine when and if we next get to the playoffs. 

I think Hays, Hess, Fry and Castro are young enough and talented enough to be on the O's next playoff team.

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Hays, Hess, Fry and Castro are young enough and talented enough to be on the O's next playoff team.

J'Rudjeanon.