The way to win the World Series is to lose big for three years

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Disagree with the first sentence.

The Yankees and Red Sox are better than the Rangers and Angels....that was my point.  A huge reason why they are better than those teams is their ability to have $200M payrolls.   I'm sure we can build a competitive team with a low payroll, but I'm saying the obstacles to overcome in the AL East are harder than in the West.

Yes I agree.  But the quality of young players that are drafted when a team is drafting #1 for three years is significant.  And it not just the first round .  They would be drafting first in each round with great analytics to help them select the best players available.  During those three years the Red Sox and Yankees will probably be drafting near the bottom therefore they don't get players that are as good.   That is they way the system is supposed to work.  

I agree both those teams have the money to buy players.  But when we look at what the Astros did in 2017 with all those good young players it may be too much for even the Yanks and Red Sox to overcome. If its true that the prime years for players is now 24-27 as has been reported then most of the time free agents are past their prime.   Manny and Harper not with standing.

[Beef Supreme]

The Astros were the outlier, however. Maybe teams will follow the model of purposefully tanking to get high draft picks and ultimately succeed. But I do not see any team in history before them that took that approach and won the World Series as a result. Even the Marlins, who tore asunder a championship team, were not/did not plan to be non-competitive during their re-build. Certainly, there are numerous other paths that have been taken for the other 115 or so World Series championship teams.  I think there is no guarantee that purposefully losing as many games as possible for however many years consecutively is the sole path to winning the World Series, whether it be the Orioles or another team.

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Cherington  signed seven key free agents — David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara and Ryan Dempster for the 2013 WS team.  So you are right.   It takes a lot of adding and things had to go his way.

I figured, because, IIRC, it went south very quickly for them the next year.  Admittedly, I didn't look at the 2014 Sox but I am pretty sure if memory serves correctly, they were terrible.

If we're comping models/theories on how to build a team, I much prefer the Elias way.  Great scouting, drafting and developing.

I just hope that Elias brings his WS ring along, wears it every day and shows it to the Angelos Bros whenever they push back on him.

[theocean]

17 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Disagree with the first sentence.

The Yankees and Red Sox are better than the Rangers and Angels....that was my point.  A huge reason why they are better than those teams is their ability to have $200M payrolls.   I'm sure we can build a competitive team with a low payroll, but I'm saying the obstacles to overcome in the AL East are harder than in the West.

Not trying to annoyingly fact check you here, but thought this might bring up a good point. Believe it or not, the Angels had a $175 million payroll on Opening Day last year - more than the Yankees. 

Sure, the Yankees and Red Sox have big payrolls - but they also are really well run. It doesn't take a genius to sign David Price or trade for Giancarlo Stanton - but it does take a well run organization to draft and develop Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Luis Severino, and the like.

I think that speaks to the value of analytics and a strong scouting department. Even the big payroll teams rely heavily on what hopefully Mike Elias will be bringing to the Orioles.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

The Astros were the outlier, however. Maybe teams will follow the model of purposefully tanking to get high draft picks and ultimately succeed. But I do not see any team in history before them that took that approach and won the World Series as a result. Even the Marlins, who tore asunder a championship team, were not/did not plan to be non-competitive during their re-build. Certainly, there are numerous other paths that have been taken for the other 115 or so World Series championship teams.  I think there is no guarantee that purposefully losing as many games as possible for however many years consecutively is the sole path to winning the World Series, whether it be the Orioles or another team.

No but it may be the cheapest.

[capyy]

28 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Disagree with the first sentence.

The Yankees and Red Sox are better than the Rangers and Angels....that was my point.  A huge reason why they are better than those teams is their ability to have $200M payrolls.   I'm sure we can build a competitive team with a low payroll, but I'm saying the obstacles to overcome in the AL East are harder than in the West.

I don't understand why people are debating this point. The Orioles play in a much tougher division and will have a harder road than the Astros. There's nothing to argue in that statement. It's just true. 

[wildcard]

Just now, capyy said:

I don't understand why people are debating this point. The Orioles play in a much tougher division and will have a harder road than the Astros. There's nothing to argue in that statement. It's just true. 

Its a fact of life.   So the O's have to develop a plan to overcome that advantage.   The "Houston Plan" may be the best approach.

[Aglets]

30 minutes ago, theocean said:

Not trying to annoyingly fact check you here, but thought this might bring up a good point. Believe it or not, the Angels had a $175 million payroll on Opening Day last year - more than the Yankees. 

Sure, the Yankees and Red Sox have big payrolls - but they also are really well run. It doesn't take a genius to sign David Price or trade for Giancarlo Stanton - but it does take a well run organization to draft and develop Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Luis Severino, and the like.

I think that speaks to the value of analytics and a strong scouting department. Even the big payroll teams rely heavily on what hopefully Mike Elias will be bringing to the Orioles.

There is nothing to fact-check because I did not say anything incorrect.  

Before this year the Yankees have had a payroll at $184M or higher every single year since 2004.  Now that the luxury tax is a thing yes they took a season off this year to reset it and they are going to go on a spending spree this offseason.  The Red Sox had the highest payroll in MLB this year at a staggering $234M.

Cots reports the Angels had a $166.6M payroll this year (maybe they added more later...idk) which is the highest in their history.  It's just not the same.

[Aglets]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a fact of life.   So the O's have to develop a plan to overcome that advantage.   The "Houston Plan" may be the best approach.

I agree with this too of course.   Was just pointing the higher degree of difficulty they will be facing in this division.  But yes I think the Houston plan gives us the best chance.

[bpilktree67]

I just can't wait til the Sports Illustrated cover comes out and in 2021 and it says the Baltimore Orioles will win the championship in 2024 because of how much young talent they will have.  I will buy all the magazines and then sell them for a couple hundred the night the win the World Series.  

[spiritof66]

48 minutes ago, theocean said:

Not trying to annoyingly fact check you here, but thought this might bring up a good point. Believe it or not, the Angels had a $175 million payroll on Opening Day last year - more than the Yankees. 

Sure, the Yankees and Red Sox have big payrolls - but they also are really well run. It doesn't take a genius to sign David Price or trade for Giancarlo Stanton - but it does take a well run organization to draft and develop Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Luis Severino, and the like.

I think that speaks to the value of analytics and a strong scouting department. Even the big payroll teams rely heavily on what hopefully Mike Elias will be bringing to the Orioles.

The key to determining the competitive strength of a team is its revenue (and the portion of that revenue, or amount in excess of it, it's willing to spend), not its ML payroll. There are lots of ways to spend revenues to build a better team -- paying more for executives, analysts, scouts, instructors, training facilities here and in Latin America, bonuses, posting fees, minor league salaries -- in addition to the ML payroll. Teams with lots of revenue like the NYYs, Dodgers and RS can spend more in those ways to identify and develop cheap talent, with plenty left over to surround that talent with veterans if they need to. 

If you do want to compare ML payrolls, it doesn't make sense to look at a single year (especially in a year in which a team imposed a cap on its ML payroll to game the luxury tax rules). The Dodgers, NYYs and RS had the highest MLB payrolls in each of the three seasons before 2018.

The NYYs and RS have a lot more money to spend than the Orioles (or the Jays or Rays). If they spend intelligently, as both seem to be doing, it will be difficult to keep up with them in the AL East. Not impossible, but difficult. The Astros don't have a comparable problem in the AL West. 

 

[TonySoprano]

Three years in a row?  While not 30th, the Orioles finished 26th or lower 4 years in a row.

2008 68-93 26th
2009 64-98 28th
2010 66-96 27th
2011 69-93 27th

resulted in draft picks
2009 Hobgood 5th
2010 Machado 3rd
2011 Bundy 4th
2012 Gausman 4th

WS appearances - 0.  It's much more than having the pick; it's making the right pick.

[webbrick2010]

5 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Three years in a row?  While not 30th, the Orioles finished 26th or lower 4 years in a row.

2008 68-93 26th
2009 64-98 28th
2010 66-96 27th
2011 69-93 27th

resulted in draft picks
2009 Hobgood 5th
2010 Machado 3rd
2011 Bundy 4th
2012 Gausman 4th

WS appearances - 0.  It's much more than having the pick; it's making the right pick.

 

 

And the O's won the division and advanced to the ALCS in 2014. Seem to be arguing that the tank/draft to success system works

[TonySoprano]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

And the O's won the division and advanced to the ALCS in 2014. Seem to be arguing that the tank/draft to success system works

Machado played 82 games in 2014.  Gausman was 7-7 in 20 starts with an ERA+ of 110.  Bundy split time in 2014 between Aberdeen and Frederick.  Hobgood, 5 years removed from the draft, pitched 12 games for Frederick and was out of baseball after 6 games with Bowie the next year.  The success in 2014 had little to do with the previous draft picks.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Machado played 82 games in 2014.  Gausman was 7-7 in 20 starts with an ERA+ of 110.  Bundy split time in 2014 between Aberdeen and Frederick.  Hobgood, 5 years removed from the draft, pitched 12 games for Frederick and was out of baseball after 6 games with Bowie the next year.  The success in 2014 had little to do with the previous draft picks.

Come on.  When a third on the starting position players are not on the field its hard to win the World Series.   No Manny, no Wieters, no Davis   And that we the good Davis back then,

Gausman pitched well in the KC series.  He was only 2 full years out of college.   Bundy was 3 full years out of high school.  You couldn't have expected him to lead the rotation.   Manny was hurt.  

Gausman developed in to a 30 start, 180  pitcher with a 3.61 ERA before the defense went to crap.   Bundy went 13-9 in 170 IP and his best years are probably ahead of him. (maybe not with the O's).   They just had to have the time to develop and the O's should have put better players around them. Manny is an perennial All-Star and future HOFer.