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O's drafts vs. Astros, 2012-18

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Orioles (picked 4, 22,  --, 25, 27, 21, 11):

Gausman 11.3 rWAR

Hader 4.0

Mancini 2.5

Hart 1.5

Hess 0.8

Stewart 0.5

Wynns 0.3

Yacobonis 0.3

Sisco 0.2

Tarpley 0.2

9 players with negative WAR

 

Astros (picked 1,1,1, 2 & 5, 17, 15, 28):

Correa 18.3

Bregman 12.7

McCullers 6.2

Phillips 2.4

Laurean 2.1

T. White 1.7

Mengden 1.7

James 0.7

Fisher 0.5

Straw 0.2

Kemp 0.2

Nottingham 0.1

11 players with zero or negative WAR

 

No question the Astros have outdone us, but given where they were drafting, they should have.   All things considered, I was surprised they haven't outdone us by more.

 

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Jammer7 Hangout Veteran Council

Jammer7

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36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I see about 40+ WAR to 22 WAR. That is a little more than "outdone".

I think Frobby explained that, in that, he showed that they drafted much higher than we have. 

I am curious what lies ahead for Rajsich and Graham. I mean, let’s face it, much of the draft results in a reflection like this have a lot to do with how the talent is developed. Graham has done a solid job developing what talent he has been provided. Harvey and Sedlock have disappointed because of injury. 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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2 hours ago, interloper said:

Yeah I actually think our drafting has improved enormously since the arrival of Rajsich and if they keep him and give him more resources and scouts and data, it's only going to get better. The Stockstill era was a flippin' nightmare. Gary is solid. 

Joe Jordan was the prior scouting Director. He drafted Machado (33.8 WAR), Britton (11.4), Arrieta (23.4) and Wieters (18) who together have produced 86.2 WAR in the majors leagues. Jordan may have had some first round flops, but he was far from a disaster.

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Joe Jordan was the prior scouting Director. He drafted Machado (33.8 WAR), Britton (11.4), Arrieta (23.4) and Wieters (18) who together have produced 86.2 WAR in the majors leagues. Jordan may have had some first round flops, but he was far from a disaster.

Woops, right you are. All the badness starts to blend together I guess. And I always forget Jordan was around for Machado. I stand corrected!

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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10 hours ago, interloper said:

Woops, right you are. All the badness starts to blend together I guess. And I always forget Jordan was around for Machado. I stand corrected!

Honestly, Machado was a very obvious pick.   Everyone knew who the top 3 were that year.    There was zero suspense about who we would pick.   

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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12 hours ago, interloper said:

Who came up during this time from international signings for the Astros? I'd be interested to see that comparison, because it's basically just Schoop for us. 

On 11/16/2018 at 8:09 AM, Luke-OH said:

They have Gurriel and Framber Valdez on their roster. They have a number on their top prospect list as GU posted.

They've also traded Alcala, Celestino, Hector Perez, Albert Abreu, Jorge Guzman, Franklin Perez, Harold Aruaz, Rio Ruiz, and Junior Garcia as part of the Verlander, McCann, Pressley, Osuna, Giles, Oliver Perez, and Gattis trades.

 

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Jammer7 Hangout Veteran Council

Jammer7

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, Machado was a very obvious pick.   Everyone knew who the top 3 were that year.    There was zero suspense about who we would pick.   

Agreed. And, Wieters and Dylan Bundy were really no brainers as well. A switch hitter with massive power and a cannon arm. I do give JJ credit for Britton, Arrieta, Mychal Givens and David Hernandez.

In fairness, Rowell and Hobgood were well thought of by many; but they were absolute busts that he has to wear. Matusz and Brandon Snyder were disappointing as well, considering their draft status as top 10 picks. In fairness, the Orioles development crew and minor league staff were dysfunctional, at best. 

His time with the Orioles really was a poor track record. And it may be an understatement to say it was not nearly all his fault.

I saw where JJ left the Phils as well. I don’t think he did much there either. 

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Chavez Ravine Hangout Grand Counsel

Chavez Ravine

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I suspect the draft is more an excercise in not consistently screwing up than it is one of consistently beating the house. On one hand it is a long road to the Show for even the consensus talents. On the other, there is always a new  crop of chances next year. Plus those chances have already been vetted to some extent by a market evaluation. You probably would be OK if you just based your picks on the publicly available data...or at least that might prevent you from screwing up more often than usual.

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