MLB and Union talk major rule changes

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the Orioles hard-core fan base is a lot deeper than Miami’s.    But I’m not going to argue about it, because we really won’t know until they play the games.    

That's a matter of fact.  The 2003 Marlins won the World Series, and the 2004 team built on that, but both of those teams were out-drawn by every Oriole team from 1989-2017.

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You're comparing apples and oranges.  The Marlins' average attendance over their franchise history is about the same as the 2018 Orioles' attendance.  Even when they opened their new stadium they had about the same attendance as the 2015-17 Orioles.  They've had two seasons with under 1M fans, the last time the O's did that was 1974.

 As much as you'd like validation that Elias' strategy is wrong, Frobby's attendance estimate is probably pretty good.  I know I'm more likely to pay to see games this year than last.

How is 1.3 million different than 811k that much different in proving the strategy wrong.  The Orioles haven't draw 1.3 million since 1978.  Last time they drew in the 800k is 1972.  Doesn't seem much different to me.   In 1991 they played at Memorial Stadium and won 67 games and drew 2.5 million.

I would say a drop of only 200k over last year seems overly optimistic unless the team plays better than expected.  Last year people bought season tickets and single game tickets before the season started with the thought that the team would be a contender. There were many games last year where announced attendance was over 10k and there were lucky to be 2k fans in the stands.  

The schedule was pretty bad last season though . It will be interesting to see how opening weekend against the Yankees will be in regards to attendance.  Obviously opening day will do well. But if they aren't drawing 30k fans on Saturday and Sunday then we know we are in for a rough ride attendance wise. 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, atomic said:

The Escalade is very popular with Rap artists and Pro atheletes.  

I'm not even going to pretend to understand the appeal of a $75k generic 6000 lb GM SUV with 30" chrome spinners and a bunch of stick-on chrome bits that look like they came from the AutoZone clearance bin that has the handling characteristics of a Penske moving van.

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, SteveA said:

Yeah, all the tickets were pre-printed and there was just one of each.

And they were color coded to match the seats at Memorial Stadium.

Upper deck pink, general admission gold, lower box green(?), terrace box blue(?).

It's been a while, anyone remember all the colors?

I think it was lower box blue and terrace box green...general admission bleachers were white/cream....

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

How is 1.3 million different than 811k that much different in proving the strategy wrong.  The Orioles haven't draw 1.3 million since 1978.  Last time they drew in the 800k is 1972.  Doesn't seem much different to me.   In 1991 they played at Memorial Stadium and won 67 games and drew 2.5 million.

I would say a drop of only 200k over last year seems overly optimistic unless the team plays better than expected.  Last year people bought season tickets and single game tickets before the season started with the thought that the team would be a contender. There were many games last year where announced attendance was over 10k and there were lucky to be 2k fans in the stands.  

The schedule was pretty bad last season though . It will be interesting to see how opening weekend against the Yankees will be in regards to attendance.  Obviously opening day will do well. But if they aren't drawing 30k fans on Saturday and Sunday then we know we are in for a rough ride attendance wise. 

Yes, I understand that you're using your attendance projections as a way to state your dissatisfaction with the rebuilding plan.

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

- What needs fixing is the type of game.  In the 1970s and 80s we had a diversity of strategies.  Some teams hit 80 homers and stole 250 bases, some teams hit 200 homers and stole 30 bases.  There were 8 or 10 more balls in play per game, there was more action.  There were guys who sometimes hit 20 triples.  Now every team tries to strike out 10 men a game, and get their swing planes such that they'll hit the ball over the shift and into the RF stands.  Nobody steals bases much, triples are an oddity, ISTP HRs happen when someone falls down and breaks a leg, and my kids don't even have a chance to look up from their tablet to watch the game end on the 19th strikeout of the night because they've been asleep since the 5th inning.

I agree with this the most.  I think, to a certain degree, that analytics might be doing the game a disservice from this perspective.  Greater value placed on strikeouts, less value placed on stolen bases.  It used to be a bad thing to strike out, now it's not anymore.  

How do we rebound from that?  Dunno.  But when the guys that are re-writing how the game is viewed are wielding power and influence, it makes it tricky.

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm not even going to pretend to understand the appeal of a $75k generic 6000 lb GM SUV with 30" chrome spinners and a bunch of stick-on chrome bits that look like they came from the AutoZone clearance bin that has the handling characteristics of a Penske moving van.

A lot of the parents at my daughters school have Yukon Denali's. I guess they are the same vehicle as the Escalade but without all the bling.  They are annoying as they take up so much room in the parking lot and pick up area.  I don't understand how in America people think bigger is better.  When my car had to go in for body work one time I had a F150 loaner.  What a pain those things are to park.  Who would want to deal with that every day unless you had a business need for one.  

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, atomic said:

You dropped out of your season ticket pool.  And I would say your are pretty hard-core fan.  I will go to a few games just because of the kiddie area and the drinking beer outside.  Really if they had a dog show at Camden Yards for 81 dates I would probably go a couple of times. 

I dropped out of my season ticket pool, but not because I intend to stop going to games.   If you just look at the thread you started about how many games people went to last year vs. what they plan to do this year, it doesn’t look like a  37% drop to me.   But like I said, we’ll see.    

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with this the most.  I think, to a certain degree, that analytics might be doing the game a disservice from this perspective.  Greater value placed on strikeouts, less value placed on stolen bases.  It used to be a bad thing to strike out, now it's not anymore.  

How do we rebound from that?  Dunno.  But when the guys that are re-writing how the game is viewed are wielding power and influence, it makes it tricky.

I think that analytics are wrong on this though. It is one thing when you one guy who strikes out all the time and hits for a low average but has a lot of power but when you purposely get guys like that thinking they are valuable they turn out to not be valuable at all.  I think analytic departments have gotten wise to that and the guys with power and low averages seem to be on the way out. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with this the most.  I think, to a certain degree, that analytics might be doing the game a disservice from this perspective.  Greater value placed on strikeouts, less value placed on stolen bases.  It used to be a bad thing to strike out, now it's not anymore.  

How do we rebound from that?  Dunno.  But when the guys that are re-writing how the game is viewed are wielding power and influence, it makes it tricky.

When analytics show that the best strategies are counter to making baseball a thriving commercial venture it's up to the powers-that-be to tweak the rules to encourage more engaging strategies.  I don't have much faith in that because of history, and because Manfred talks about treating symptoms (i.e. ban the shift) rather than the disease (prevalance of three true outcomes strategies).  Although the original post/article here has some ideas pointing in the right direction.

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I dropped out of my season ticket pool, but not because I intend to stop going to games.   If you just look at the thread you started about how many games people went to last year vs. what they plan to do this year, it doesn’t look like a  37% drop to me.   But like I said, we’ll see.    

I don't think we will drop as far as Marlins due to the loyalty of Red Sox and Yankee fans.  But I expect attendance to be lower than 1.3 million.   And you say you won't go to less games but now that you won't have any season plan tickets you will most likely go to less. It is easier to not go to games when you haven't pre-bought tickets. Remember the games you had tickets to last season and didn't attend still count in the attendance numbers.   

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, atomic said:

A lot of the parents at my daughters school have Yukon Denali's. I guess they are the same vehicle as the Escalade but without all the bling.  They are annoying as they take up so much room in the parking lot and pick up area.  I don't understand how in America people think bigger is better.  When my car had to go in for body work one time I had a F150 loaner.  What a pain those things are to park.  Who would want to deal with that every day unless you had a business need for one.  

I guess Americans have always bought their cars with an eye on dollars per pound.  Used to be people lusted after 25' long Caddys that weighed three tons and you could put seven bodies in the trunk, now it's three-row SUVs larger than a Manhattan studio.  I'm a contrarian on this, and every time I see an Escalade I want to go buy an imported Japanese Kei car or an old Austin Mini.

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

When analytics show that the best strategies are counter to making baseball a thriving commercial venture it's up to the powers-that-be to tweak the rules to encourage more engaging strategies.  I don't have much faith in that because of history, and because Manfred talks about treating symptoms (i.e. ban the shift) rather than the disease (prevalance of three true outcomes strategies).  Although the original post/article here has some ideas pointing in the right direction.

But look at the Astros. Highest strikeout per player is 126.  Two guys with 120+ strike outs on the team and both those guys were acquired before current GM.  I think teams are realizing strike outs and WAR is wrong.  Probably why the Orioles were overrated by WAR last season to such a degree.  

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

When analytics show that the best strategies are counter to making baseball a thriving commercial venture it's up to the powers-that-be to tweak the rules to encourage more engaging strategies.  I don't have much faith in that because of history, and because Manfred talks about treating symptoms (i.e. ban the shift) rather than the disease (prevalance of three true outcomes strategies).  Although the original post/article here has some ideas pointing in the right direction.

Agreed, it's up to the powers that be to fix it.  I think the original post has some ideas, too.  How many are legit, not sure.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, atomic said:

But look at the Astros. Highest strikeout per player is 126.  Two guys with 120+ strike outs on the team and both those guys were acquired before current GM.  I think teams are realizing strike outs and WAR is wrong.  Probably why the Orioles were overrated by WAR last season to such a degree.  

I'm not sure what you mean by the last sentence.  The O's totaled about 11 WAR by bb-ref and eight by Fangraphs.  That's in the neighborhood of 50 wins.