Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Only 89 RBIs with 45 homers?! Will Davis be batting ninth behind Joseph and Mullins?
He's got to have more RBIs than 89 if he hits that many HRs, I would think. He tallied 117 RBIs when he hit 47 HRs and totaled 138 RBIs when he hit 53. If he only gets 89 RBIs, it means he probably did not top 35 HRs.

That is probably unrealistic unless Davis is going to bat lead off.  In 2016, Davis did have 38 HRs and 84 RBIs.  A stat line like that isn't out of the question.  

[El Gordo]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Me neither; in fact, since he set the all time record for taking a called strike three, I think we can assume he probably took more that were relatively down the middle than any player ever has.   

My big worry is that it may not really be a mental issue.    It may be the result of slowing reflexes and bat speed that are causing him to have to make a decision on pulling the trigger sooner than he used to.    And if that’s the case, tilting the decisions towards “swing” rather than “take” a little more will result in fewer called strike threes, but will increase the number of swinging strikeouts, and the net result may be a wash or worse.    I hope that concern is musfounded, but we’ll see.

Interesting article on bat speed. Apparently they can measure it now. Last 3 years it has varied between 66.5 mph Mike Stanton and 51.3 Mallex Smith. CD doesn't appear among the fastest or the slowest FWTW.https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/exploring-statcasts-estimated-swing-speed/

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, JanJaap said:

Without protection in the lineup it will he hard

Meh

“Tom Tango suggests that lineup protection positively manifests in just one measurable way, and it relates to what Bumgarner alludes to. Protection leads to a slight uptick in walks, which very well might be Bumgarner’s "giving in." If Bumgarner starts let his mind drift to the guy on deck rather than the one in the batter’s box, it might lead to nibbling and, possibly, a base on balls. He prefers to discount protection and instead attack the opposition. While walks are good for an offense, the idea of protection rests on the idea that the first of the two great hitters will receive better pitches to hit. In this regard, Tango suggests that lineup protection does not exist: protection "merely increases the ratio of walks to non-walks without significantly affecting how well the hitter performs if he isn’t actually walked."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Meh

“Tom Tango suggests that lineup protection positively manifests in just one measurable way, and it relates to what Bumgarner alludes to. Protection leads to a slight uptick in walks, which very well might be Bumgarner’s "giving in." If Bumgarner starts let his mind drift to the guy on deck rather than the one in the batter’s box, it might lead to nibbling and, possibly, a base on balls. He prefers to discount protection and instead attack the opposition. While walks are good for an offense, the idea of protection rests on the idea that the first of the two great hitters will receive better pitches to hit. In this regard, Tango suggests that lineup protection does not exist: protection "merely increases the ratio of walks to non-walks without significantly affecting how well the hitter performs if he isn’t actually walked."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

Even if that wasn't the case, if you were a pitcher would you rather face Davis, Machado or Schoop? 

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Even if that wasn't the case, if you were a pitcher would you rather face Davis, Machado or Schoop? 

If I was a pitcher? Manny, but I like a challenge.

Kidding, I like a challenge but I’ll take easy outs. Davis looks like one of those. I’m dubious his offseason of adjustments will help much. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.

[TouchemAll]

On 2/9/2018 at 3:59 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

How does defense keep a 1B in the lineup?   He’s not a SS.  Your 1B has to hit. 

Hey I agree, Lets ask Buck

[spleen1015]

This is what the O's get for signing a guy to such a silly contract after he's been found to be a cheater.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, spleen1015 said:

This is what the O's get for signing a guy to such a silly contract after he's been found to be a cheater.

I don’t like the contract either and I wasn’t a proponent of signing him.

However, the cheater label is a bit much. He took a prescribed medication that he didn’t have the proper therapeutic use exemption paperwork for. That’s irresponsible sure, be he’s diagnosed and prescribed the medication, so it’s hard for me to see it as cheating.

[Bradysburns]

On 2/8/2018 at 3:53 PM, gmelson26 said:

Something in my gut says Davis is going to have a bounce-back year.  I think he hits over 35 HRs and a .335 OBP.  My dream is he hits like 45 HRs and a .350 OBP, and then we are able to trade him.

I like that dream. 

[justice98]

On 2/8/2018 at 11:03 AM, theocean said:

Well, taking the bat off his shoulder every once in a while would probably help.

Or making contact on pitches right down the middle of the plate.

[justice98]

19 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I don’t like the contract either and I wasn’t a proponent of signing him.

However, the cheater label is a bit much. He took a prescribed medication that he didn’t have the proper therapeutic use exemption paperwork for. That’s irresponsible sure, be he’s diagnosed and prescribed the medication, so it’s hard for me to see it as cheating.

He was on it, had an MVP caliber year.  Was off it and slumped badly.  Got back on a new ADHD med and rebounded.  That had me expecting the meds made all the difference. But he presumably has been on whatever he takes ever since and he's been not good, so that theory went out the window.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, justice98 said:

He was on it, had an MVP caliber year.  Was off it and slumped badly.  Got back on a new ADHD med and rebounded.  That had me expecting the meds made all the difference. But he presumably has been on whatever he takes ever since and he's been not good, so that theory went out the window.

I mean even if the meds allowed him to perform well, they are legitimately treating an issue that he legitimately has.

[El Gordo]

4 hours ago, justice98 said:

He was on it, had an MVP caliber year.  Was off it and slumped badly.  Got back on a new ADHD med and rebounded.  That had me expecting the meds made all the difference. But he presumably has been on whatever he takes ever since and he's been not good, so that theory went out the window.

Your facts are wrong. The year he hit 53 he wasn't on anything except maybe chewing tobacco. "Davis in fact lost the TUE sometimes before 2013 according to people familiar with the situation. While Davis had the TUE as a Ranger, as was originally prescribed by his hometown doctor, MLB’s JDA panel ruled after interviewing him sometime prior to the ’13 that he would no longer have baseball’s approval for the drug he’d long taken." https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-did-davis-do-it-thanks-to-condition-ball-began-to-look-like-blur/

[Il BuonO]

12 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Your facts are wrong. The year he hit 53 he wasn't on anything except maybe chewing tobacco. "Davis in fact lost the TUE sometimes before 2013 according to people familiar with the situation. While Davis had the TUE as a Ranger, as was originally prescribed by his hometown doctor, MLB’s JDA panel ruled after interviewing him sometime prior to the ’13 that he would no longer have baseball’s approval for the drug he’d long taken." https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-did-davis-do-it-thanks-to-condition-ball-began-to-look-like-blur/

In fact, he had lost the exemption but continued taking it in 2013.

Prior to the 2013 season, Davis was said to have a therapeutic use exemption for Adderall to treat his diagnosed ADHD. He stopped applying or was denied in 2013 but obviously kept taking Adderall, which led to two failed tests in two years. The first got him a warning. The second a suspension.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/chris-davis-receives-adderall-exemption-following-suspension-040505429.html

[El Gordo]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

In fact, he had lost the exemption but continued taking it in 2013.

Prior to the 2013 season, Davis was said to have a therapeutic use exemption for Adderall to treat his diagnosed ADHD. He stopped applying or was denied in 2013 but obviously kept taking Adderall, which led to two failed tests in two years. The first got him a warning. The second a suspension.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/chris-davis-receives-adderall-exemption-following-suspension-040505429.html

Obviously? Based on what source other than the writer's supposition. As to the failed tests, one was when we went back on it in 2014. Since they are tested frequently every year it would have been detected in 2013 and probably more than once. What happened from what I have read was CD had an exemption in TEX but went off it because he didn't like the side effects. When the absence of adderall is detected that can also lead to a failure.  This most likely was the first failed test. Here is an article stating he did not have a TUE in 2013: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that Davis did not have a TUE for 2013 either. UPDATE: 2:30pm Connolly further reported that Davis did not have a TUE for any of the 2012-2014 seasons. https://www.camdenchat.com/2014/9/12/6140823/chris-davis-suspended-adderall-exemption

Edited February 13, 2018 by El Gordo