Aruajuo stays for International Money

[interloper]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should I let the narrative go?  They keep trading the slots away.  How does that hurt my argument?  Every time another team trades for the slots it indicates that value is still out on the International market.

But we're still dealing from a position of surplus. Other teams might need a few slots to fill rosters or simply take a flyer or two. We will have that same ability after all trades due to the surplus.

[scOtt]

51 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I prefer @Can_of_corn's blatant skepticism, but that is me enjoying drama on the OH!  I miss SG and @RShack too, but that is another story.  

I miss Shack...

[sportsfan8703]

I’ve been saying for months this dude wasn’t so great. Glad we kept an asset but I’ll be shocked if he ever sees AAA. 

[ReclaimTheCrown]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should I let the narrative go?  They keep trading the slots away.  How does that hurt my argument?  Every time another team trades for the slots it indicates that value is still out on the International market.

But isn’t the right question how much we think we need for the prospects we are still interested in pursuing? Before we started trading away slots, we had $7-8 million (I believe that’s in the right ballpark, but someone can correct me). Just because we are trading slots doesn’t mean: A) that there is no value still out there (because as you indicate, the fact that other teams are trading for slots indicates some broader interest in remaining talent) and B) that we have no intention of signing a bunch of guys (as Frobby pointed out, we quietly have been signing players).

Isn’t it just perhaps most logical that Elias and crew have determined that there isn’t $7 million worth of talent left out there, and have calculated that they need several million dollars less than they have currently to sign the players they’d like to pursue? Thus leaving several million dollars worth of excess spending power that we have no intent of spending as a tradable asset? Hence, perhaps they have calculated that rather than leaving millions in slots unspent, which may happen even if they DID have carte blanche to spend recklessly on the international market, they would turn that spending power into Dwight Smith Jr or Pedro Araujo or even a player like our buddy Zoellner.

To me, that seems like the most logical explanation considering what we know is out on the international market and the fact that we have been signing international players, albeit not huge dollar guys. I think we all want to see the O’s function like a normal team and add talent via all available avenues, and I understand the concern you have (and I admittedly share it a bit, given past precedent). But I think the new regime deserves some of the benefit of the doubt, especially given that we’ve never seen the types of things and talk that we’re seeing now during the Angelos reign. And I don’t believe that trading away slot money for some potentially useful assets is necessarily diagnostic of the dynamic you repeatedly allege is going on here.

[LTO's]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should I let the narrative go?  They keep trading the slots away.  How does that hurt my argument?  Every time another team trades for the slots it indicates that value is still out on the International market.

Because the narrative is unfounded. They aren't trading slots away in July right when the posting period opens. They're doing it in April and for players that would just be DFA. Dwight Smith was going to be released. Instead the Blue Jays were able to extract the literal bare minimum value for him. They probably didn't have any slots left so they traded for just the ability to spend it if someone pops up. And they STILL wouldn't have more than the O's.  You keep ignoring that even in a picked over market they've spent more on players than Pete ever let Duquette spend. It's literally just complaining to complain. Anyone who has a baseline understanding of how the market works would at the very least give Elias this next period before forming any narratives. And really, he should be given until the 2020 period.

[Can_of_corn]

My narrative, that ownership is restricting spending and that is causing Elias to not target expensive international talent is not unfounded.  Everything we have seen since the sons took over indicates spending is down substantially.

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should I let the narrative go?  They keep trading the slots away.  How does that hurt my argument?  Every time another team trades for the slots it indicates that value is still out on the International market.

I can’t disagree with this statement.   However, I expect the scenario is that since there aren’t players available who justify relatively large expenditures, we have more slot money than we realistically can use to fill a roster.

Let me give an example.    Let’s say we had $6 mm in slots available (I forget the exact number), but all the players worth more than $100 k are gone.    We have 30ish slots on our DSL roster, and 5-7 guys already there who are worth keeping, the rest being filler guys age 20 and up.   So, we have room for 23-25 players.    Even if we spent $100 k on each of them (which is aggressive), we’d still have $3.5-$3.7 mm unused.    Save $1.5 mm for some for any unusual opportunity that might pop up and that still leaves you $2-2.2 mm to trade away to other teams who might be looking to fill 3-5 spots on their roster.    So it’s not that the slots are worthless, we just have more than we can use under these circumstances, whereas teams that spent big on a couple of players last July may have use for a few more slots.    

Now, everything I just said is hypothetical, and I’m sure you could poke holes in it.     I don’t know enough about the players who are still out there to be signed before June 19, the special opportunities that still might arise, or the reasons we haven’t been more aggressive with the 3-4 special opportunities that have come up this offseason.    But based on what I know, I think my theory is plausible.    

[LTO's]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My narrative, that ownership is restricting spending and that is causing Elias to not target expensive international talent is not unfounded.  Everything we have seen since the sons took over indicates spending is down substantially.

  

This is the last thing i'll say before I'll just agree to disagree. Elias has said that since November, they've already spent more than Duquette did internationally. So unless you're calling Elias a liar, then yes, the narrative of spending (especially internationally) being down substantially IS completely unfounded. Also, there is perhaps one player left that you could say would be "expensive" and most of the rumors are that he'll just wait until the next period anyway. You can't just overpay these subpar players left and cram them into a DSL roster. That team has a set roster too. Why fill it up now with mediocre at best prospects when you can reset in July and target better players? That makes no sense.

[mdbdotcom]

You'll come for the Rule 5, you'll stay for the International Slot Money. Has a nice ring to it.

[Tx Oriole]

15 hours ago, atomic said:

That's why I call him Pedro.

That’s the safest way. I can’t misspell that but I sure would misspell his last name. 

[weams]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm fine up here in this hill by myself.  I am a bit surprised so many folks are willing to give ownership the benefit of the doubt but it's ok.

I'll go further. Ownership has set SEVERE financial restrictions on what the Orioles can spend. In any area. All that wasted payroll MASNCASHMONEY is NOt being applied to international signings suddenly. I'm believing they will spend most of their 2019-2020 allotment to improve the club. If that means trading the ability to spend cash that they don't want to spend. Well then. Maybe your hill is fortified. 

[Tx Oriole]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm fine up here in this hill by myself.  I am a bit surprised so many folks are willing to give ownership the benefit of the doubt but it's ok.

I don’t know enough about international slots to have much of an opinion. 

[Tx Oriole]

4 hours ago, scOtt said:

I miss Shack...

Forgot about him. Scott have you got enough beer to help you get through the weekend if things go badly for the O’s? 

[weams]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

My narrative, that ownership is restricting spending and that is causing Elias to not target expensive international talent is not unfounded.  Everything we have seen since the sons took over indicates spending is down substantially.

 

I have no doubt that the process is very cash sensitive, plus they have all that draft money they have to pay for. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, LTO's said:

This is the last thing i'll say before I'll just agree to disagree. Elias has said that since November, they've already spent more than Duquette did internationally. So unless you're calling Elias a liar, then yes, the narrative of spending (especially internationally) being down substantially IS completely unfounded. Also, there is perhaps one player left that you could say would be "expensive" and most of the rumors are that he'll just wait until the next period anyway. You can't just overpay these subpar players left and cram them into a DSL roster. That team has a set roster too. Why fill it up now with mediocre at best prospects when you can reset in July and target better players? That makes no sense.

When I said spending was down I meant overall not specifically international.