FanGraph's Updated Top Prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft

[Greg Pappas]

Here's the link to the FanGraphs Top Prospects page> https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

As well, Kiley McDaniel posted this on April 9th: 

Quote

Some preferences in the early picks are becoming clearer. It still seems like Adley Rutschman at one (Orioles) and Andrew Vaughn at two (Royals) are the two easier ones to project with what we know at this point (the full draft order and slots can be found here). Rutschman’s lead at the top spot is still significant, so it would take a major injury or an uglier-than-expected medical to make Vaughn a real option at the first pick for Baltimore. 

 

[Jammer7]

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

I'd take Vaughn over Witt.  Witt's bust potential worries me.

[Yachtsman]

Just pray Rutchman stays healthy. 

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

[Jammer7]

On 4/13/2019 at 1:04 AM, Luke-OH said:

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

You had me going there for a second...

For me to take a 1B at 1:1, the bat has to be a no doubt HOF bat and not a liability in the field.  And he has to have the intangibles. Personally, I am a big fan of Abrams. There is so much there to work with. He needs work and time, but the kid is so gifted athletically. His risk profile is less than Witt, but Witt has more power and a lot more hype. 

But Rutschman should be just fine. 

[TheDeau52]

Asking as a guy who doesn’t watch a ton of college ball - what’s Rutschman’s ceiling, in your opinion?

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, TheDeau52 said:

Asking as a guy who doesn’t watch a ton of college ball - what’s Rutschman’s ceiling, in your opinion?

The best catcher in the majors. 

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The best catcher in the majors. 

Metaphorically I see a scale with Wieters's and Posey's realities at either end.  A bellwether of whether we are real 2022 playoff contenders or pesky up-and-comers I can imagine will be has Rutschman unseated Gary Sanchez as the perennial starting catcher in the All-Star game.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Metaphorically I see a scale with Wieters's and Posey's realities at either end.  A bellwether of whether we are real 2022 playoff contenders or pesky up-and-comers I can imagine will be has Rutschman unseated Gary Sanchez as the perennial starting catcher in the All-Star game.

If you say Posey was an 80 during his years of team control and Wieters was a 55, which I think is pretty close to correct. and Rutschman is a 60 FV, then

Posey would be about a 97% outcome.

Wieters would be a 33% outcome. 

[TheDeau52]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The best catcher in the majors. 

Well I suppose I’d take that.

[MDtransplant757]

23 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

If you say Posey was an 80 during his years of team control and Wieters was a 55, which I think is pretty close to correct. and Rutschman is a 60 FV, then

Posey would be about a 97% outcome.

Wieters would be a 33% outcome. 

Would be nice if a guy like Wynns stuck around and was a good backup so that way Rutschman can not be run into the ground like Wieters was. 

[WalkWithElias]

On 4/13/2019 at 1:04 AM, Luke-OH said:

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

I'm loving that Seth Johnson remains ranked in the 30's if we assume Luke is right and consensus is wrong. 

Luke: Do you think it's a real possibility that Johnson isn't seen as a first rounder come draft day and is available with the O's second pick? Of course, it just takes one scouting director to agree with you for him to get popped earlier. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I'm loving that Seth Johnson remains ranked in the 30's if we assume Luke is right and consensus is wrong. 

Luke: Do you think it's a real possibility that Johnson isn't seen as a first rounder come draft day and is available with the O's second pick? Of course, it just takes one scouting director to agree with you for him to get popped earlier. 

I think it's possible. Teams fear risk too much sometimes and the lack of a track record with Johnson will undoubtedly scare teams off. Especially for a 1st round pick, those picks get shackled to the scouting director and GM, who then get judged by the results of that pick. That makes folks risk adverse.

But for me, it's easy to not think about those things and just see a guy who only started pitching last spring, who didn't throw anything but a fastball until last fall and now has a slider and curveball that wouldn't look out of place in the majors less than a year later. The changeup flashes. The delivery is as good as you'll find in the college ranks. He's been up to 98 and has touched at least 95-96 every start. Sure, he doesn't know how to pitch yet, his command is below average, but it's so advanced considering the number of reps he's had. 

The stats aren't dominant, but compare him to another small school DI shortstop who converted to pitching in earnest his JR year.

Player A: 4.48 ERA, 11.26 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 1.75 BB/9, 6.12 K/9

Player B: 3.46 ERA, 6.00 H/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.23 BB/9, 9.92 K/9

A is Jacob DeGrom, B is Johnson

DeGrom didn't go until the 9th round, but he didn't throw as harder than low 90s at the time and didn't have a quality secondary pitch at the time. 

 

[waroriole]

On 4/17/2019 at 9:45 AM, MDtransplant757 said:

Would be nice if a guy like Wynns stuck around and was a good backup so that way Rutschman can not be run into the ground like Wieters was. 

Well Buck is gone so there’s hope.