1/10th of the way through O's on pace for 61-101

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Can you believe how mild this winter was?  We hardly had any snow to speak of.  I'm surprised by that as well as Cashner's so/w ratio. 

Sounds like a snow job.

[BRobinsonfan]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

That made me laugh. Yes, talking about this beats the hell of out discussing politics or which Beetle is the best.

There's a strict no politics rule on the board and clearly Paul.

[HowAboutThat]

11 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

There's a strict no politics rule on the board and clearly Paul.

UmmmmJohn, of course.

[bobmc]

15 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

There's a strict no politics rule on the board and clearly Paul.

Just a bunch of "silly love songs" - well except for Blackbird (but even that was overrated, right @TonySoprano?).  John WAS the walrus!  Loving the humor and camaraderie here boyz!

 

Back to the topic at hand - does anyone really believe that we can lose only 101?  Poll not coming!  Man that Hyder can manage NL-style!  This team is terrible on paper.  But they bring it every day and make us proud!

[wildcard]

Paul won't be Paul in John was not John.  And vice a verse.

[foxfield]

there should be a study of all men over 50.  There are but two questions:

 

1)  John or Paul

2)  Mary Ann or Ginger

 

John unquestionably....

And yes.

 

 

Ok Mary Ann

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Probably the most significant thing on the hitting side of things is Jonathan Villar sporting a 16.9% K rate 71 PA in. He's never struck out less than 22.7% of the time and 71 PA is enough to start feeling somewhat confident that there has been an improvement in true talent. Swinging strike rate is at 8.7% and he's never been below 10.4% before, which also supports the idea that a meaningful change has occurred. 

I think that you are the prospects guy on this board. Can you tell me why John Means was ranked so low on the prospect list? Is he not as good as he’s shown so far? Or did the evaluators miss something? Or is this just an example of sometimes a guy does better than expected?

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am cherry picking that Cashner is throw better and winning more now the Brocail is his pitching coach and he pitched to a 3.40 ERA with him in 2017.  Plus the O's defense is way better than it was last year.  So outs that should be made are made much more often then they were last year.

 Which is really not cherry picking at all but instead evaluating what is happening to support Cashner having a better season.

Check the FIP for 2017.

[Ohfan67]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am cherry picking that Cashner is throw better and winning more now the Brocail is his pitching coach and he pitched to a 3.40 ERA with him in 2017.  Plus the O's defense is way better than it was last year.  So outs that should be made are made much more often then they were last year.

 Which is really not cherry picking at all but instead evaluating what is happening to support Cashner having a better season.

So Brocail is coaching the hitters too? The Orioles scored 12 and 9 runs, respectively, in his last two starts. That's the primary reason he got the wins, not his pitching. 

 

That said, I HOPE that Cashner has a very good year and can be traded at the deadline. He is not going to reach the innings threshold for his 2020 option to vest, so he would be a cheap pickup for a team that needs a fifth starter...IF he pitches well. 

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Check the FIP for 2017.

Plus he only went .500 in 2017. Brocail didn't do a good job of helping him win that year.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

So Brocail is coaching the hitters too? The Orioles scored 12 and 9 runs, respectively, in his last two starts. That's the primary reason he got the wins, not his pitching. 

 

That said, I HOPE that Cashner has a very good year and can be traded at the deadline. He is not going to reach the innings threshold for his 2020 option to vest, so he would be a cheap pickup for a team that needs a fifth starter...IF he pitches well. 

That would be Don Long not Brocail.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think that you are the prospects guy on this board. Can you tell me why John Means was ranked so low on the prospect list? Is he not as good as he’s shown so far? Or did the evaluators miss something? Or is this just an example of sometimes a guy does better than expected?

He was projected as a swingman/long relief type in the majors. High probability, low ceiling. He has changed the usage and quality of his changeup significantly. That has brightened the outlook, but I think the optimism is getting a little overheated. He's maybe a 4 ERA type guy, #5 SP, with some risk that he won't be able to handle more than 2x through the order once the book is out on him.

So in this case, no, no one missed anything. He developed in a way that's not easily predictable, at an age where significant development is uncommon. He's also not nearly as good as his gaudy early season ERA represents. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One four inning outing of shutout innings = earning a promotion?   Easy grader....

I need to correct myself.   When I posted before, BB-ref hadn’t updated to include Ramirez’s five innings of shutout ball from yesterday.  So now it’s two shutout outings, spanning nine innings total.   I still wouldn’t call that “earning a promotion” yet, but two consecutive shutout outings are certainly a nice start to Ramirez’s campaign.    And as noted, he may get promoted just because others are floundering.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

Honestly, this is the kind of early season cherry picking that wildcard seems to do every year that just drives me nuts.    The guy has a 5.31 ERA this year.   He had a 5.28 ERA last year.    His last two outings were 5.1 innings 3 ER and 5.0 innings 3 ER (that’s 5.23 ERA combined).    So he groups those with the one good outing Cashner has had all year, ignores the bad one immediately before that, calculates a 3.31 ERA for those three outings and then says there’s “no reason to think that won’t continue.”     In reality, there’s probably less than a 1% chance that will continue.    

Please don’t take this personally, wildcard.     I think you’re an excellent poster, and the board wouldn’t be nearly as good without you.   But the cherry picking of minuscule samples to try to reach some insanely optimistic conclusion detracts from that.    

Haven't you heard.  SSS are in.   Hyde makes out his lineup based on matchups which are almost always SSS.  If SSS are all that is available, that is what is used.

And far as you being nuts.  I blame that more on being a lawyer than anything to do with what I post.   It kind of going with the territory. 

[Ohfan67]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That would be Don Long not Brocail.

Luck. Luck is what was responsible for two of Cashner’s recent wins. It certainly wasn’t his pitching.