This offense has surprised me

[Hank Scorpio]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree it’s fluky, but I can’t figure out why the fluke has occurred.    As mentioned, our RISP hitting hasn’t been otherworldly.    We’re not creating runs on the basepaths.  Two things I do see are a very low GIDP rate (5.2% vs. 9.0% league average) and a good rate of getting runners in from 3B (63.3% vs. 47.4% league average). I’m not sure that any of that explains why we’ve scored about 10-15 more runs (out of 79) more than you’d expect with a .661 OPS.   Bottom line, we shouldn’t expect that to continue, but it’s been enjoyable.   

Only Frobby tries to figure out why a fluke has occurred.

Flukes by their very nature are inexplicable, no?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Only Frobby tries to figure out why a fluke has occurred.

Flukes by their very nature are inexplicable, no?

Runs come from somewhere.     When runs scored don't match up with OPS, the usual reason is better than expected RISP hitting or exceptional team speed.   Neither is really the case here.

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Runs come from somewhere.     When runs scored don't match up with OPS, the usual reason is better than expected RISP hitting or exceptional team speed.   Neither is really the case here.

Therefore, it's a fluke!

I appreciate your inquisitiveness. I'm just busting your stones a little bit.

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Runs come from somewhere.     When runs scored don't match up with OPS, the usual reason is better than expected RISP hitting or exceptional team speed.   Neither is really the case here.

Super duper advanced analytics of the difference could be explained by the choke factor of the Yankees and Red Sox at their home parks.  The rest by Toronto sucks.

We are not likely to play at a .600 clip on the road, but if we did for a full year...THAT would be unexplainable and very FLUKY.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Runs come from somewhere.     When runs scored don't match up with OPS, the usual reason is better than expected RISP hitting or exceptional team speed.   Neither is really the case here.

Could just be sequencing.  For example, if a team gets eight hits and two walks in a game they might score zero runs or they might score six.  If five of the hits and both walks came in the 4th inning they'll score more than if they had one hit an inning and a walk in the 2nd and the 7th.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Could just be sequencing.  For example, if a team gets eight hits and two walks in a game they might score zero runs or they might score six.  If five of the hits and both walks came in the 4th inning they'll score more than if they had one hit an inning and a walk in the 2nd and the 7th.

Yes, but the RISP numbers would reflect that.    Oh well, I’ve decided there’s no one big cause, just a lot of little causes that have added up but will probably reverse course over the long haul.   

[interloper]

Credit to Duquette for picking up Nunez on waivers and finding an actual quality ML hitter. Dude can't play D, but he's a better DH than we've had in YEARS. 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, wildcard said:

That is about ready to change.  They are headed to Tampa.

Yes, this will be quite a test, with the Rays’ ERA standing at 2.44, easily best in the league.   It looks like we’ll miss facing Snell and Morton, though Glasnow tonight poses a tough challenge.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, TouchemAll said:

These guys do tend to manufacture some runs they put pressure on opposing teams and pitchers with speed on the base paths. I love that.

It's fun to watch stolen bases and good baserunning.  But the correlation between runs and steals (2016-18) is 0.06.  In English that means there is essentially no relationship between stealing bases and scoring runs.  It's random whether a base stealing team scores more or less than a non-base stealing team.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's fun to watch stolen bases and good baserunning.  But the correlation between runs and steals (2016-18) is 0.06.  In English that means there is essentially no relationship between stealing bases and scoring runs.  It's random whether a base stealing team scores more or less than a non-base stealing team.

Additionally, the O’s currently are tied for 10th in the AL with 6 SB and our success rate is at 60% which is a losing proposition and third worst in the league.   We lead the league in outs on the bases with 9, and our extra bases taken percentage is 13th in the league.   In short, we haven’t been a good baserunning team at all so far this year.    I don’t know where people are getting the contrary impression.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's fun to watch stolen bases and good baserunning.  But the correlation between runs and steals (2016-18) is 0.06.  In English that means there is essentially no relationship between stealing bases and scoring runs.  It's random whether a base stealing team scores more or less than a non-base stealing team.

What about taking extra bases, or errors caused by distraction caused by an energetic runner?

[bobmc]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

What about taking extra bases, or errors caused by distraction caused by an energetic runner?

Unfortunately, like "veteranosity", it simply cannot be measured except by the most discerning eye/ear/tear duct.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

What about taking extra bases, or errors caused by distraction caused by an energetic runner?

I'm sure those add up to a few runs here and there.  But often very fast players aren't good hitters.  Billy Hamilton might be the fastest player ever.  By bb-ref, he's a +36 baserunner for his career, and that includes many of the things you are talking about - stealing, taking extra bases, advancing on other events like errors.  But he's also a -110 hitter.  So in many or even most cases you'll prefer a slower hitter.

[OFFNY]

56 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I'm sure those add up to a few runs here and there. But often very fast players aren't good hitters. Billy Hamilton might be the fastest player ever. By bb-ref, he's a +36 baserunner for his career, and that includes many of the things you are talking about - stealing, taking extra bases, advancing on other events like errors. But he's also a -110 hitter. So in many or even most cases, you'll prefer a slower hitter.

 

o

 

Herb Washington stole 29 bases in 1974 ........ with no plate appearances.

Charley Finley hired him strictly as a pinch-runner. Washington is best known for something that I saw happen live, in October of 1974. With the Athletics trailing the Dodgers by one run in the 9th inning of a 1974 World Series game, Washington was sent in to pinch-run to try to expedite the potential tying run to score. He was picked off ........ I still remember Washington smacking the ground in frustration immediately afterward.

 

I was in 4th grade at the time.

 

 

 

o

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's fun to watch stolen bases and good baserunning.  But the correlation between runs and steals (2016-18) is 0.06.  In English that means there is essentially no relationship between stealing bases and scoring runs.  It's random whether a base stealing team scores more or less than a non-base stealing team.

I love stolen bases. A stolen base is one of the most exciting plays in baseball, in my opinion (and caught stealings are fun when your team is on defense). But almost every season I post about how stolen bases are basically meaningless. And I typically get hammered because that's not what the announcers and play-by-play guys say.