O's listening to trade offers for Givens

[atomic]

41 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

 Atomic is on ignore for me, but I can pretty much predict that his bone of contention is that last year's firesell was stupid and didnt give anything in return.

 Doesn't matter that it was under a different Ownership and GM org at the time, let keep living in the past.

 Elias has a plan, and that involves better drafting and being in the international draft market.

Of course, that can't happen fast enough for Atomic, so until then, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

Most of us knew this year was going to be hard at times to follow, but to sit back and be so vocal and upset about the results is crazy.

The sky  has already fell.

[atomic]

16 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

But you can't blame that on Elias and current management.  And how else would you have the current management rebuild?

Get players on the cheap to make a better team.  Markakis was had for 4 million.  Lot of cheap guys out there these days.  Perhaps with all the low salaries for veterans who aren't superstars the new way to rebuild is to get cheap veterans on short deals. 

I am just stating that drafting players and signing international 16 year olds isn't going to make this team even average in the next 4 years.  If we had more prospects performing well it might not be as bleak.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it's likely that the Major League team won't be significantly better for a number of years.  Which is what we suspected a year ago or more.  Timelines in things like this are always approximations, development can be faster or slower than "normal", there's no guarantee that they'll exactly follow the Astros' template or any other template.  

But when you have a 47-win baseline and a bottom 5 or 10 farm system there's no quick fix.  Even an unprecedented spending spree wouldn't guarantee a .500 record, and wouldn't do anything for the long-term sustainability of the organization.  They're taking a path of slowly building a self-sustaining process, which will hopefully lead to an organization that can compete despite the large differences in budget between the O's, Sox, and Yanks.

Umm, yeah, no kidding. I've butted heads with Atomic and a few others about how long this is going to take for months...to the point where I occasionally like to highlight the rarity when I do agree with Atomic (and we all agree that the O's are going to stink next year). 

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, atomic said:

The sky  has already fell.

"Fallen". Although the Orioles sky is also fell (the adjective fell).

[Redskins Rick]

18 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

But you can't blame that on Elias and current management.  And how else would you have the current management rebuild?

we could sign all these old and over the hill veterans, and we might win a few more games, but I thought the idea was to get younger and veterans sign for this year and next, are not going to help the team in 3 years.

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

"Fallen". Although the Orioles sky is also fell (the adjective fell).

Yeah I knew that soon as I hit submit.  But can't edit. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

"Fallen". Although the Orioles sky is also fell (the adjective fell).

I guess none of these fans were around for the 14 years of hell.

I really hate to lose.

But, if there is truly an end plan in site and they are working it, great.

Thats what really sucked back in the day, they didnt have a plan, and it wasn't until Andy came and started things in the right direction, and he wasn't able to do it overnight either. He also had help, when he turned the reins over to DD.

[osfan83]

I believe the next core of winning Orioles baseball are currently in elementary school. 

[BRobinsonfan]

23 minutes ago, atomic said:

Get players on the cheap to make a better team.  Markakis was had for 4 million.  Lot of cheap guys out there these days.  Perhaps with all the low salaries for veterans who aren't superstars the new way to rebuild is to get cheap veterans on short deals. 

I am just stating that drafting players and signing international 16 year olds isn't going to make this team even average in the next 4 years.  If we had more prospects performing well it might not be as bleak.

I think we tried that before, and, because of the market we play in, it seemed to doom us to mediocrity for years.  Rebuilding is painful, and it doesn't happen in a year or two.  I prefer having a plan that, hopefully, keeps us competitive for a long time to come. A return to "The Oriole Way," if you will.   

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I think we tried that before, and, because of the market we play in, it seemed to doom us to mediocrity for years.  Rebuilding is painful, and it doesn't happen in a year or two.  I prefer having a plan that, hopefully, keeps us competitive for a long time to come. A return to "The Oriole Way," if you will.   

I would welcome a return to the "oriole way," which in a nutshell is just fundamentally sound baseball.

This team needs to draft better, and I think Elias is the right man for the job.

How many players after Mussina was drafted and they have come and gone, and only one real HOF candidate in that bunch and that was Manny,

[DrungoHazewood]

51 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

For 12 innings or work?  He's still allowed less hits than innings pitched. He's striking out batters at a rate of 11.3 per nine innings and his walk rate is lower than his career average.  In a small sample size of 12 innings, you really think an ERA of 4.50 means that much?

It used to be that 11.3 K/9 meant you were among the best pitchers in the world.  In the 1990s there were four or five pitchers a season who had that rate or higher.

Today you can have 11 K/9 and get traded at the deadline for a Grade C prospect and some salary relief.  Just last year there were as many pitchers who had 11 K/9 (min 50 innings) as there were in all the 1990s.  It's not that special.

No, a 4.50 ERA doesn't mean anything in 12 innings.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It used to be that 11.3 K/9 meant you were among the best pitchers in the world.  In the 1990s there were four or five pitchers a season who had that rate or higher.

Today you can have 11 K/9 and get traded at the deadline for a Grade C prospect and some salary relief.  Just last year there were as many pitchers who had 11 K/9 (min 50 innings) as there were in all the 1990s.  It's not that special.

No, a 4.50 ERA doesn't mean anything in 12 innings.  

I think that it is interesting that just a few years ago folks were talking about how many teams had shutdown bullpens that baseball was turning into a six inning game.

Is it just me or are bullpens in general struggling this year?  It almost looked like teams had figured it out.  Bullpen ERA is up over a half run a game(.71) from 2015.

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, atomic said:

Get players on the cheap to make a better team.  Markakis was had for 4 million.  Lot of cheap guys out there these days.  Perhaps with all the low salaries for veterans who aren't superstars the new way to rebuild is to get cheap veterans on short deals. 

How does buying into a declining asset at eight times the minimum salary allow you to rebuild?  Signing players in their 30s is an exercise in guessing when they'll fall off the cliff.  You don't turn 50-win teams into 80- or 90-win teams by signing 35-year old 1-2 win players at $4M, $6M, $8M a year.  That's a sure way to win 73 games and have a $110M payroll, and not much (or anything) left to rebuild the infrastructure and talent base.

Markakis got a hometown discount, and the weighted average of his last five years is a below-average player.  The three projection systems on Fangraphs have Markakis as a 1.0 win player in 2019.  Dwight Smith Jr is listed as a 0.9 win player.  You would have signed Markakis over Smith, spent an extra $5-6M, and gotten basically the same production.

[atomic]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How does buying into a declining asset at eight times the minimum salary allow you to rebuild?  Signing players in their 30s is an exercise in guessing when they'll fall off the cliff.  You don't turn 50-win teams into 80- or 90-win teams by signing 35-year old 1-2 win players at $4M, $6M, $8M a year.  That's a sure way to win 73 games and have a $110M payroll, and not much (or anything) left to rebuild the infrastructure and talent base.

Markakis got a hometown discount, and the weighted average of his last five years is a below-average player.  The three projection systems on Fangraphs have Markakis as a 1.0 win player in 2019.  Dwight Smith Jr is listed as a 0.9 win player.  You would have signed Markakis over Smith, spent an extra $5-6M, and gotten basically the same production.

Those listings are meaningless. Markakis was 2.6 WAR last season and is already 0.9 WAR This season.  Dwight Smith JR is 0.4 War this season and -0.1 WAR last season. And they don't even play the same position.  Markakis is a right fielder and Smith Jr is a left fielder. 

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that it is interesting that just a few years ago folks were talking about how many teams had shutdown bullpens that baseball was turning into a six inning game.

Is it just me or are bullpens in general struggling this year?  It almost looked like teams had figured it out.  Bullpen ERA is up over a half run a game(.71) from 2015.

Comparing relievers from 2015 and 2019:

BA down two points.
OBA up 15 points.
SLG up 30 points.
ISO up 32 points.
K/9 up 1.1.
HR/500 PA: up from 12.3 to 16.7

Similar numbers for starters, although this year may be an anomaly - OPS for starters is actually 2 points lower than for relievers. In '15 relievers were 30 points better.

Relievers today are walking more, striking out more, and giving up more homers. But remember, in '15 we were at 1.01 HR/team/game, now we're at 1.33.  Any root cause is going to be speculative, but my guess is juiced balls, smaller strike zones, everyone elevating the ball and not caring a bit about Ks, and more and more innings going to the 10th-25th best pitchers in the organization.