I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I think the days of figuring what a guy is worth in the market based on WAR may have been over two years ago. Some teams of course were slow to get there. 

Fair market value is what an informed buyer would pay for him. Nothing else matters.

[weams]

30 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Fair market value is what an informed buyer would pay for him. Nothing else matters.

Well fair market states definitely that he is not worth 10.4.

[weams]

What others say.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

Well fair market states definitely that he is not worth 10.4.

I would be surprised if he got 10.4 if the Orioles or any other team submitted a reasonable offer... Say 7.4.... They he probably settles for 9.

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I would be surprised if he got 10.4 if the Orioles or any other team submitted a reasonable offer... Say 7.4.... They he probably settles for 9.

It's one or the other in front of the arb. Math says 10.4 is closer to his "number" than 7.  It's just no one will pay it.  Funny. 

[Scalious]

On 11/27/2019 at 7:56 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Theoretically some of the money saved would go to improving the farm.  Players, scouts, instructors, facilities.

They are receiving revenue sharing. It's 48% of the local revenue from each team in fact. Which there is some obligation to spend that money on players and feign competitiveness. Since MLB teams money is very much a collective pool. Without any obligation for teams to keep their books open. Which is a very bad combination

Yes, this has become a problem with a lot of teams cutting back salary and tanking for years. This case is so obvious. The Orioles cutting their best player and lowering their payroll below 50M. This will be likely a primary example used in arguments over CBA negotiations. Something that the big market teams and players are going to be united on when the CBA ends.

Teams are just getting tighter and tighter in part because there is so much uncertainty about the future of baseballs financials. 

Edited November 30, 2019 by Scalious

[Scalious]

WAR is not linear in the sense that a 2 WAR player worth more than 2x a 1 WAR player. 

That is just how scarcity works within basic economics. No one is paying 8M for a 1 WAR player. Why do that when there is a lot of them out there and your odds of finding something comparable for cheaper is pretty good?

There is also a major question mark about pitching WAR, more so then hitting WAR. Or even that the properly account for hitting value tin comparison to pitching value.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Scalious

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

What do you think would be his trade market at 3.0 WAR? One would believe it would still be considerable no? How can you not look at his 4 years and assume you will get any less than his average.

I saw the 1.8 projection for Villar and think its hogwash. I think Villar would safely be worth 8-10 WAR over the next 3 seasons. He's in his prime and appears to be trending up.

Obviously, he has to go somewhere and be a starter as opposed to a utility INF that doesn't play everyday.

I don't care if he plays 2nd or SS ..... I would expect that he'd produce 2.7 minimum

I agree 1.8 sounds very low.    I’ll bet when the other projections come out, they’ll be higher.   I think 2.7 is a pretty good estimate for 2020.   2B/SS do tend to decline a little more quickly than other positions so I think 8 is about the highest I’d expect over a three-year window.   When I say “expect,” I mean pay for.   He could do better, but to me I wouldn’t pay for that possibility.    

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree 1.8 sounds very low.    I’ll bet when the other projections come out, they’ll be higher.   I think 2.7 is a pretty good estimate for 2020.   2B/SS do tend to decline a little more quickly than other positions so I think 8 is about the highest I’d expect over a three-year window.   When I say “expect,” I mean pay for.   He could do better, but to me I wouldn’t pay for that possibility.    

I thought they could get 3 at 6.5 per earlier this year. I think he might embrace some stability.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I thought they could get 3 at 6.5 per earlier this year. I think he might embrace some stability.

Maybe that was the issue. I'm sure Elias was up front in saying he was gonna trade him at the first opportunity. 

That's not much stability.

[ChosenOne21]

I feel like at a minimum we could ship him out with some cash to buy a prospect while still saving some money. Why let him go for nothing? Are we so cash strapped that we can't afford to buy prospects?

At a minimum, the Indians should be interested. Big hole at 2B, deep farm system, always cash-strapped

[weams]

49 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I feel like at a minimum we could ship him out with some cash to buy a prospect while still saving some money. Why let him go for nothing? Are we so cash strapped that we can't afford to buy prospects?

At a minimum, the Indians should be interested. Big hole at 2B, deep farm system, always cash-strapped

Why pay cash? you could just buy whatever propect you need. Or trade Trey or Givens or Bundy for prospects with no cash. The Orioles have no obligation to the obviously overpriced Villar. Talented, but overpriced to the market. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

So we should tender Villar, make him a full time SS and trade him at the deadline. 
 

Not really, but WAR justifications would say so.

I mean, unless he plays a -20 UZR/150 SS like he did a couple of years. It was the combination of playing time at SS + career best defensive metrics there. 

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Why pay cash? you could just buy whatever propect you need. Or trade Trey or Givens or Bundy for prospects with no cash. The Orioles have no obligation to the obviously overpriced Villar. Talented, but overpriced to the market. 

Because Villar doesn't have zero value, so trading him plus cash would get us more in a trade while avoiding paying his full salary

[weams]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Because Villar doesn't have zero value, so trading him plus cash would get us more in a trade while avoiding paying his full salary

But he has no salary if waived or released? I am confused by this machination I guess.