Roch: "I don't expect Villar back with the O's in 2020."

[wildbillhiccup]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Where are they? Villar is the best leadoff hitter that Os have had in years ... if you can find plenty of comparable players where are they?

Good leadoff hitters don't have a OBP in the low .300s.

[Moose Milligan]

48 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Good leadoff hitters don't have a OBP in the low .300s.

True.  Speed doesn't make a good leadoff hitter.  Gotta get on base.

I'd rather have a slow plodder type in the Nick Johnson mold who's not a speed demon but can get on base at a .400 clip in the leadoff spot.  Shame about Nick Johnson, dude could never stay healthy.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True.  Speed doesn't make a good leadoff hitter.  Gotta get on base.

I'd rather have a slow plodder type in the Nick Johnson mold who's not a speed demon but can get on base at a .400 clip in the leadoff spot.  Shame about Nick Johnson, dude could never stay healthy.

This is probably the 2019 gold standard. Lindor, Tatis and Merrifield are really the only ones who steals bases. These stats might be dated by a few weeks (I didn't check)

Lemahieu - .380

Kepler - .342 (+31 HRs!)

Tatis Jr - .383

Blackmon - .371

Springer - .380

Lindor - .354

Choo - .378

Merrifield - .355

 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think my style of writing is the issue here.

I never felt you had style.

[Philip]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True.  Speed doesn't make a good leadoff hitter.  Gotta get on base.

I'd rather have a slow plodder type in the Nick Johnson mold who's not a speed demon but can get on base at a .400 clip in the leadoff spot.  Shame about Nick Johnson, dude could never stay healthy.

Wasn’t Mclouth our best leadoff guy aside from Markakis?

He would hit a single, and then he would steal second, it was a pretty common thing, and I really liked having him on our team.

[thezeroes]

The overall average of Lead-off Hitters in MLB this year is .331

Baltimore is ranked 27th at .300

Alberto is first at .370

Villar is second at .302

Mullins was at .138

Rickard was at .091

Wilkerson is at .222

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Good leadoff hitters don't have a OBP in the low .300s.

Agreed, but when was the last time the O’s had one that didn’t?   I wouldn’t call Villar’s .332 OBP as an Oriole “good” for a leadoff hitter, but it’s not terrible either.    

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Just my two cents, I would be surprised of Villar is not tendered this offseason. The Orioles have no in house candidate ready to take over at either SS or 2B and unless Elias has a plan in place to find a better defensive SS to play next year when they won't be contending once again, then I'm betting he's back.

Remember, the Orioles don't have a ton of salary tied up next year so it's not like they can't afford a $7 million Villar. I think next season is a transition season where we start to see prospects like Mountcastle, Akin, Zimmerman and maybe McCoy, Lowther, Wells, Kremer and even possibly Diaz if he ever starts to hit like his tools suggest. I think Elias would want some talent around them. Grant it Villar is a sub par defensive shortstop but he's not awful over there.

Now, he may consider that Alberto is ok enough at 2B next year and he could non-tender Villar if he believes he can't play SS effectively enough, but he'll need to have a replacement in mind and McCoy is the closest guy and he needs to prove it in AAA and may be better suited longterm at 2B in the majors.

My guess is he'll tender Villar. 

We probably could have afforded Gausman too and I'd argue our starting pitching hole is deeper than our 2nd base hole.

Yet we traded Gausman to save $,

[ScGO's]

Villar hasn't OPS'd over .800 since August of 2017 and he OPS'd .665 for the season that year.  

His OBP never really climbs over ..330 besides his 2016 season and he's not stealing 60 bases anymore either.

He's an average ball player in my opinion.  He's had a hot streak to finish July begin August, but I still think we should have traded him and I would hope someone claims him on waivers. 

Can you trade a player before or after arbitration in the offseason? If you can trade someone before you tender them a contract, I would try to do that, but I wouldn't want to get locked into a contract with him for 2020

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We probably could have afforded Gausman too and I'd argue our starting pitching hole is deeper than our 2nd base hole.

Yet we traded Gausman to save $,

Gausman saved them his and O'Day's salary.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I never felt you had style.

Thanks?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We probably could have afforded Gausman too and I'd argue our starting pitching hole is deeper than our 2nd base hole.

Yet we traded Gausman to save $,

Our payroll was a lot higher then.   Don’t forget we have Trumbo’s $12.5 mm coming off the books and Cashner’s gone too.   They may want to slash even further, but my guess is it’s not so imperative.    

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Our payroll was a lot higher then.   Don’t forget we have Trumbo’s $12.5 mm coming off the books and Cashner’s gone too.   They may want to slash even further, but my guess is it’s not so imperative.    

I bet they go low. This year will be a tough one to pay for. 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

We probably could have afforded Gausman too and I'd argue our starting pitching hole is deeper than our 2nd base hole.

Yet we traded Gausman to save $,

I think we traded Gausman just to offload O'Day and their salaries.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Agreed, but when was the last time the O’s had one that didn’t?   I wouldn’t call Villar’s .332 OBP as an Oriole “good” for a leadoff hitter, but it’s not terrible either.    

An honestly he's trending in the right direction. Again, he discussed modifications to his swing. A .280 average with some walks would lead to an OBP of .345-.350.  I'd be pretty happy with that the stolen bases and extra base hits.