ROY- Means or Alvarez?

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Then we have a philosophical difference.  I'd give the NFL MVP to the best player, not the player who was pretty good and happened to have excellent teammates.  I don't think it's right to give nearly full credit for all outs to the pitcher when we have solid evidence that a lot of that credit should go to his teammates and his good luck. 

You are taking a simple stat that has some correlation to ERA.  0.46 correlation.  It is based on Walks, Strike Outs and Home Runs.  Giving up Home Runs means you have given hard contract,  Large amount of strike outs means you are fooling batters a lot and low walks means you have good control.  These are parts of being a good pitcher but not  the total story.  That is why pitchers on the same team vary with regards how close their FIP is to their ERA. 

Look at Kyle Hendrick stats. For the last 4 years his ERA is lower than his FIP.  He is a guy who induces ground balls and doesn't striike out a ton. None of his fellow pitchers have the same scenario.

Almost every single year of Marianno Rivera's career his ERA was significantly lower than his FIP.  

[atomic]

Also look at Zach Britton once he became a reliever.  Every single year FIP Much higher than ERA. 

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, atomic said:

You are taking a simple stat that has some correlation to ERA.  0.46 correlation.  It is based on Walks, Strike Outs and Home Runs.  Giving up Home Runs means you have given hard contract,  Large amount of strike outs means you are fooling batters a lot and low walks means you have good control.  These are parts of being a good pitcher but not  the total story.  That is why pitchers on the same team vary with regards how close their FIP is to their ERA. 

Look at Kyle Hendrick stats. For the last 4 years his ERA is lower than his FIP.  He is a guy who induces ground balls and doesn't striike out a ton. None of his fellow pitchers have the same scenario.

Almost every single year of Marianno Rivera's career his ERA was significantly lower than his FIP.  

You are throwing out the baby with the bathwater.  Nobody says that FIP is the end-all be-all.  I'm trying to get you to digest that neither is ERA.  They're two opposite ends of the spectrum.  They will both show weird results in edge cases, like a lot of metrics.  You've decided that since FIP doesn't show everything that it shows nothing.  While dismissing equally valid criticisms of ERA.

You'd be far better served with a blended, nuanced approach.

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You are throwing out the baby with the bathwater.  Nobody says that FIP is the end-all be-all.  I'm trying to get you to digest that neither is ERA.  They're two opposite ends of the spectrum.  They will both show weird results in edge cases, like a lot of metrics.  You've decided that since FIP doesn't show everything that it shows nothing.  While dismissing equally valid criticisms of ERA.

You'd be far better served with a blended, nuanced approach.

But ERA does measure something related to performance while the player is pitching.  WAR is meant to judge wins above replacement. It is based on actual results.  You can add park factors and defense behind the pitcher into the calculation but you still need a measure of how the pitcher performed.  As we want actual wins the team has as the end result.  

Just like as a  batter we count the actual number of doubles and triples into the equation. I think the biggest issue I have with it is they are taking something designed as a predictive tool and using too say how many wins a player contributed.   

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, atomic said:

But ERA does measure something related to performance while the player is pitching. 

Yes, performance of the team.  ERA doesn't measure how the pitcher pitched.  It measures how many runs the team allowed while a certain pitcher pitched with a certain defense behind him in a certain park.  ERA doesn't even try to tease out how much each of those things is contributing.  It gives up and says "might as well say it's all the pitcher."  Which we absolutely know isn't the correct answer.

[Babypowder]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, performance of the team.  ERA doesn't measure how the pitcher pitched.  It measures how many runs the team allowed while a certain pitcher pitched with a certain defense behind him in a certain park.  ERA doesn't even try to tease out how much each of those things is contributing.  It gives up and says "might as well say it's all the pitcher."  Which we absolutely know isn't the correct answer.

Good effort, but I tried to have this discussion with a potted plant once before and it didn't go anywhere.

[byrdz]

This list has Means second behind Alvarez. Guerrero not even listed as a serious contender.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mvp-cy-young-award-roy-poll-leaders

[TommyPickles]

Baseball Ref > Fangraphs

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, performance of the team.  ERA doesn't measure how the pitcher pitched.  It measures how many runs the team allowed while a certain pitcher pitched with a certain defense behind him in a certain park.  ERA doesn't even try to tease out how much each of those things is contributing.  It gives up and says "might as well say it's all the pitcher."  Which we absolutely know isn't the correct answer.

I like adjusted ERA+.   

[byrdz]

They should really just factor in the juiced balls this season and give it to Means. 

[atomic]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, performance of the team.  ERA doesn't measure how the pitcher pitched.  It measures how many runs the team allowed while a certain pitcher pitched with a certain defense behind him in a certain park.  ERA doesn't even try to tease out how much each of those things is contributing.  It gives up and says "might as well say it's all the pitcher."  Which we absolutely know isn't the correct answer.

I didn't say straight ERA. Park adjusted and defensive adjusted ERA would be what you would want to do.  Or you could do the same with OPS against with park factors and defense adjustment.

I think what you aren't understanding is what WAR is measuring.  Wins above replacement.  You add team WAR to 48 and you get how many wins the team should have.  It won't be exact but the idea is to divide what each player on the team is providing towards the game s the team won.  If you had a stat that isn't results based you are measuring something else.  WAR is not meant as a predictor of what the player will do in the following seasons. It is meant to measure how they did that season luck or no luck. 

Batters have luck as well and face different quality defenses as well.  But you but they are rated on their performance towards scoring runs and on defense preventing runs.  Not their theoretical performance  if luck was removed. 

FIP isn't even field independent as it is based on innings pitched.  A pitcher with a terrible defense will face more batters than a team with a great defense on balls in play.  So he is more likely to give up more home runs and walks per inning.  He probably would get more strike outs too but a bigger factor is given to walks and home runs. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I like adjusted ERA+.   

I like ERA- but I'm a lot more negative than you.

https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/era-fip-xfip/

[sportsfan8703]

Alvarez by a mile. He’s doing “Ruthian” things. 

[Philip]

13 hours ago, byrdz said:

This list has Means second behind Alvarez. Guerrero not even listed as a serious contender.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mvp-cy-young-award-roy-poll-leaders

Well I guess the people who make the decision have made their decision, so that’s that. But coming in second is no dishonor.

[SurhoffRules]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well I guess the people who make the decision have made their decision, so that’s that. But coming in second is no dishonor.

He'll likely be the highest Orioles ROY vote share finisher since Rodrigo Lopez.